20th Draw - Realistic expectations?

[bestofluck]

What? No, they're not jumping from 481 to 900 :/

well its not a joke. last time the scores were 489 and most of them were above 1000 with pnp so the scores are either 481 or they jump over 900? whats wrong

 

[Aragorn165]

well its not a joke. last time the scores were 489 and most of them were above 1000 with pnp so the scores are either 481 or they jump over 900? whats wrong

I don't understand what you are saying, but I am not sure you understand how statistical trends work. Even if more than half the people selected in the next draw are PNP candidates, the average scores still won't rise from 489 to 900 in one go, that makes no sense, and is asinine.
It's simple and basic math.

 

[mf4361]

I don't understand what you are saying, but I am not sure you understand how statistical trends work. Even if more than half the people selected in the next draw are PNP candidates, the average scores still won't rise from 489 to 900 in one go, that makes no sense, and is asinine.
It's simple and basic math.

I am not sure you understand how Express Entry works. There is no statistical trend. Draws dates are at CIC's whim and hence the score cannot be predicted

 

[guillefranco73]

@ 478 points. I am waiting anxiously.

 

[Aragorn165]

I am not sure you understand how Express Entry works. There is no statistical trend. Draws dates are at CIC's whim and hence the score cannot be predicted

I understand how Express Entry works, but I think you are missing the context to the conversation.

1. bestofluck says that the score in the next draw will be 900+
2. I say that can't feasibly happen, a jump from 481 to 900+ makes no sense from one draw to another
3. bestofluck asserts that it will happen thanks to an influx of recent PNP candidates who will have received 600 points, pushing up the average
4. This is where statistics come into play. I say that that is impossible- even if 750 of the 1500 people receiving ITAs in the next round were PNP candidates, there wouldn't be enough of an upward push in the average CRS to push the cutoff to 900+.

That is all, really. I'm refuting bestofluck's baseless speculation that is sure to cause panic otherwise with just plain, hard numbers.

 

[Asivad Anac]

I understand how Express Entry works, but I think you are missing the context to the conversation.

1. bestofluck says that the score in the next draw will be 900+
2. I say that can't feasibly happen, a jump from 481 to 900+ makes no sense from one draw to another
3. bestofluck asserts that it will happen thanks to an influx of recent PNP candidates who will have received 600 points, pushing up the average
4. This is where statistics come into play. I say that that is impossible- even if 750 of the 1500 people receiving ITAs in the next round were PNP candidates, there wouldn't be enough of an upward push in the average CRS to push the cutoff to 900+.

That is all, really. I'm refuting bestofluck's baseless speculation that is sure to cause panic otherwise with just plain, hard numbers.

I can see you are trying really hard to disprove that speculation and it is commendable. Fair warning though, rationalizing doesn't help with trolls and doomsday prophets.

 

[Aragorn165]

I can see you are trying really hard to disprove that speculation and it is commendable. Fair warning though, rationalizing doesn't help with trolls and doomsday prophets.

Thanks haha.
But no, I'm not trying to reach out to bestofluck anymore as much as I am laying all of this down in the event of some unsuspecting poster stumbling on to this thread, either directly from this board, or via Google- I don't want someone who has submitted their EE profile and is awaiting the next draw to freak out and panic unnecessarily. So I am doing my part in ensuring there is no misinformation, is all!

 

[purplesnow]

The points have never been 900+, even when the draws were entirely made up of people with LMIA' or PNP's. There was never enough people to have the minimum score be 900.

 

[pksai]

any luck for 444?

 

[stubish]

We just got the spouse celpip scored back... bumping our profile to 457. I'm trying not to get ahead of myself. Next birthday is in late Jan, meaning 5 less points there...

I'm cautiously optimistic. Hoping Trudeau comes through on weighting in country expeience more heavly if I don't get invited by the end of the year.

Good luck everybody.

 

[cyronn]

Liberals have promised to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by end of this year apparently. Wonder if that will have a bearing on Express Entry for the rest of the year. Getting 25,000 refugees in less than 2 months seems to be a steep target! http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/immigration-minister-john-mccallum-6-challenges-he-faces-1.3304602

 

[GARJ]

Liberals have promised to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by end of this year apparently. Wonder if that will have a bearing on Express Entry for the rest of the year. Getting 25,000 refugees in less than 2 months seems to be a steep target! http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/immigration-minister-john-mccallum-6-challenges-he-faces-1.3304602

The Liberals are funding the refugee crisis program with over 200 millions dollars just to start, they'll probably have the 25k refugees all safe here in Canada and under a Christmas tree by Dec 25th.

 

[bestofluck]

I understand how Express Entry works, but I think you are missing the context to the conversation.

1. bestofluck says that the score in the next draw will be 900+
2. I say that can't feasibly happen, a jump from 481 to 900+ makes no sense from one draw to another
3. bestofluck asserts that it will happen thanks to an influx of recent PNP candidates who will have received 600 points, pushing up the average
4. This is where statistics come into play. I say that that is impossible- even if 750 of the 1500 people receiving ITAs in the next round were PNP candidates, there wouldn't be enough of an upward push in the average CRS to push the cutoff to 900+.

That is all, really. I'm refuting bestofluck's baseless speculation that is sure to cause panic otherwise with just plain, hard numbers.

what is baseless friend? most of the people above 489 were with 600 points of PNP. now there were few without PNP to complete 1500 invites. I think next time there will be all 1500 with 600 points. thats all. it is not jumping. if u are 450 u become 1050 with 600. is it all jumping, you dint understand what i wanted to say. I just said all 1500 next time might be with 600 points.

 

[bestofluck]

I understand how Express Entry works, but I think you are missing the context to the conversation.

1. bestofluck says that the score in the next draw will be 900+
2. I say that can't feasibly happen, a jump from 481 to 900+ makes no sense from one draw to another
3. bestofluck asserts that it will happen thanks to an influx of recent PNP candidates who will have received 600 points, pushing up the average
4. This is where statistics come into play. I say that that is impossible- even if 750 of the 1500 people receiving ITAs in the next round were PNP candidates, there wouldn't be enough of an upward push in the average CRS to push the cutoff to 900+.

That is all, really. I'm refuting bestofluck's baseless speculation that is sure to cause panic otherwise with just plain, hard numbers.

Okay tell me how many can get 650? how many can get 550? how many can get 535 and ho many can get 680? hardly few. either thhey are below 500 or they are above 700 . this is not jumping no at all.

Now if it is not 900 it can be 850 its same thing. Look at the first few draws with same numbers for your reference.

 

[Aragorn165]

what is baseless friend? most of the people above 489 were with 600 points of PNP. now there were few without PNP to complete 1500 invites. I think next time there will be all 1500 with 600 points. thats all. it is not jumping. if u are 450 u become 1050 with 600. is it all jumping, you dint understand what i wanted to say. I just said all 1500 next time might be with 600 points.

Even if all 150 people had scores of 650, the average would move to 650, not 900+...