FSW WORLDWIDE

[taah]

Like I said in my post "like they did in 2020". They did CEC only draws from January to roughly July 2020. They can easily repeat that because now they have precedent. They have reduced the numbers and halted invitations because of the shift in focus to refugees, and the fact that they already have more than enough ITAs issued to meet the high end of this year's targets. Because of this temporary halt in ITAs right now, they may want to resume CEC only draws to get a head start on their 2022 targets because they're easier to process than FSW. Realize that they also have around 50k FSW applications in the pipeline already, many of them close to completion. That's already half of their 2022 targets. Once they have enough of a backlog of CECs in the pipeline, they may reluctantly resume FSW in the second half of 2022. They have absolutely NO reason whatsoever to resume FSW. They may feel sorry for us and have a couple of FSW draws, but we aren't refugees, old, or tourists from rich countries. So I doubt they'll actually do that.

The fact that they're still being sheepish about it and not giving any concrete statements is indicative of their intention to do the same thing they've done in 2020/2021.

the scenario in 2020 was totally different. Firstly, it was from March to July, and secondly, they started all program draws in July as they predicted that outlanders might be able to land in the near future(of course they were wrong). As the borders are open now for outlanders, the situation is more similar to the second half of 2020 and not the first half.


Also, I think somewhere in the future we should decrease that 50,000 outland backlog. It would not be valid.

 

[GaryChapman VP]

Like I said in my post "like they did in 2020". They did CEC only draws from January to roughly July 2020. They can easily repeat that because now they have precedent. They have reduced the numbers and halted invitations because of the shift in focus to refugees, and the fact that they already have more than enough ITAs issued to meet the high end of this year's targets. Because of this temporary halt in ITAs right now, they may want to resume CEC only draws to get a head start on their 2022 targets because they're easier to process than FSW. Realize that they also have around 50k FSW applications in the pipeline already, many of them close to completion. That's already half of their 2022 targets. Once they have enough of a backlog of CECs in the pipeline, they may reluctantly resume FSW in the second half of 2022. They have absolutely NO reason whatsoever to resume FSW. They may feel sorry for us and have a couple of FSW draws, but we aren't refugees, old, or tourists from rich countries. So I doubt they'll actually do that.

The fact that they're still being sheepish about it and not giving any concrete statements is indicative of their intention to do the same thing they've done in 2020/2021.

But ..but.. the new minister and stuff

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Understand that the reason for this '36% more' you're referencing is purely because of their focus on CEC. The bottleneck in 2019 was the fact that they also processed FSW. They have even said so. CEC applications are easier to process, have an instantaneous 'landing' procedure, and they have a near endless supply of international students graduating every year. There is no conceivable reason for FSW to return. They can fulfil their "high skill" quota with CECs, and address any shortages with PNP.

Please @mushymush read this post also:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/fsw-worldwide.739338/post-9783935

If you take analyze the statistics of Authorization and Visas issued for permanent residents at this pace right now, you can underestand that they are working all full speed of 40,000+ applications per month for all the streams.

Of all the admissions, 18,000 per month comes from Express Entry, almost half.

So, in other words, IRCC has dedicated almost half the staff to EE and half to other streams. When other streams have been completed, like the Health Care stream, essential workers non-health care and international students, they will be allocated to Express Entry.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

There were different rules I believe in 2019.

Like, you had 90 days to submit your application, now I believe is 60 days. Plus, the IRCC has more workforce now in 2021.

It was always 60 days. 90 days happened due to covid.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

the scenario in 2020 was totally different. Firstly, it was from March to July, and secondly, they started all program draws in July as they predicted that outlanders might be able to land in the near future(of course they were wrong). As the borders are open now for outlanders, the situation is more similar to the second half of 2020 and not the first half.

And they learned from their mistakes and refused to start FSW thiss year despite borders being completely open, and the country having an 80+% 12+ vaccination rate.

Also, I think somewhere in the future we should decrease that 50,000 outland backlog. It would not be valid.

I genuinely have no idea what this means.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Please @mushymush read this post also:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/fsw-worldwide.739338/post-9783935

If you take analyze the statistics of Authorization and Visas issued for permanent residents at this pace right now, you can underestand that they are working all full speed of 40,000+ applications per month for all the streams.

Of all the admissions, 18,000 per month comes from Express Entry, almost half.

So, in other words, IRCC has dedicated almost half the staff to EE and half to other streams. When other streams have been completed, like the Health Care stream, essential workers non-health care and international students, they will be allocated to Express Entry.

Okay? How is this related to what I said though? I'm not arguing the rate at which they're processing applications. What you said may be perfectly true, and people with applications in progress have some reason to be hopeful. But it is naive to think any of this is positive news with regard to resuming all program draws.

 

[Ar12345]

Yes, I am a FSW applicant. Almost everyone here is.

In 2019 they admitted 109,600 permanent residents under Express Entry.

Right now in 2021 they are at 95,700 admitted and the average monthly admission rate is 18,000. If they continue with this rate, there will be 149,700 admitted permanent residents this year under Express Entry.

Almost 36% more then in 2019 when every application went smoothly and within their time frame.

Yes the but 95700 is the total raw number. That adds up all streams. But when we talk about FSW backlog, we need to focus more specifically on how that raw number is split. Lets just take 2020 ITAs and 2021 approvals.

68100 all program (FSW mainly) ITAs were given in 2020. 17245 from 2020 were approved till date in 2021 if we add up 2021's 5115 approvals and generously assume half the 2020 approvals were of 2020 applications.

If you look at CEC, 32215 and 97653 ITAs were issued in 2020 and 2021 respectively (129858 total). 87190 total were approved till date in 2021 if we add up 2021 approvals and assume half the 2020 approvals were from 2020 applications. The fact that just 32215 were given ITAs in 2020 but there are already 79795 approvals in 2021 indicates that they are working on newer CEC applications instead of clearing the FSW backlog. They have openly mentioned that they are working on finalizing March/April 2021 CECs now.

Yes, IRCC is working at faster rates. But question is what they are working on. They have decided to take the CEC route to show the 6 month processing speed and annual numbers. Going back to old FSWs will slow their current processing rates for new applications and they will see it as a vicious cycle. This strategy of making the numbers is what got marco promoted in the cabinet. Nobody knows when they will pick up FSW. So it's hard to tell from the overall raw processing numbers. The only way I see this ending next year is through some massive class action lawsuit

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

But ..but.. the new minister and stuff

haha you have a submitted application. You'll be in Canada in 2022 guaranteed.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Yes the but 95700 is the total raw number. That adds up all streams. But when we talk about FSW backlog, we need to focus more specifically on how that raw number is split. Lets just take 2020 ITAs and 2021 approvals.

68100 all program (FSW mainly) ITAs were given in 2020. 17245 from 2020 were approved till date in 2021 if we add up 2021's 5115 approvals and generously assume half the 2020 approvals were of 2020 applications.

If you look at CEC, 32215 and 97653 ITAs were issued in 2020 and 2021 respectively (129858 total). 87190 total were approved till date in 2021 if we add up 2021 approvals and assume half the 2020 approvals were from 2020 applications. The fact that just 32215 were given ITAs in 2020 but there are already 79795 approvals in 2021 indicates that they are working on newer CEC applications instead of clearing the FSW backlog. They have openly mentioned that they are working on finalizing March/April 2021 CECs now.

Yes, IRCC is working at faster rates. But question is what they are working on. They have decided to take the CEC route to show the 6 month processing speed and annual numbers. Going back to old FSWs will slow their current processing rates for new applications and they will see it as a vicious cycle. This strategy of making the numbers is what got marco promoted in the cabinet. Nobody knows when they will pick up FSW. So it's hard to tell from the overall raw processing numbers. The only way I see this ending next year is through some massive class action lawsuit

There won't be a class action lawsuit lol

 

[Caprio]

 

[taah]

And they learned from their mistakes and refused to start FSW thiss year despite borders being completely open, and the country having an 80+% 12+ vaccination rate.

It's because of their backlog and the correlation between the number of ITAs and final PPRs (I know the quota is for the final pprs but there is certainly a correlation between these two numbers). It doesn't mean they don't want to invite fsw applicants at all. I'm happy that Jan 2022 is not that far and it'll clearly show their intentions for the rest of the year.

I genuinely have no idea what this means.

This 50,000 overseas backlog was reported a few months ago. A portion of them(PNPs and expired COPRs) have received their pprs and coprs again. So it should've been decreased to some extent by now, and it'll continue in the future.

 

[Lc4life]

I was wondering, since CEC draws are not happening and the CEC candidates waiting for ITA now will be forced to leave if their work permit expires right?

Unless they can lmia.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

It's because of their backlog and the correlation between the number of ITAs and final PPRs (I know the quota is for the final pprs but there is certainly a correlation between these two numbers). It doesn't mean they don't want to invite fsw applicants at all. I'm happy that Jan 2022 is not that far and it'll clearly show their intentions for the rest of the year.


This 50,000 overseas backlog was reported a few months ago. A portion of them(PNPs and expired COPRs) have received their pprs and coprs again. So it should've been decreased to some extent by now, and it'll continue in the future.

Oh yeah of course there's some correlation between ITA numbers and PPRs (or consequently, landed immigrants). Look, I'm not making any comment on what they will or won't do. All I'm saying is that there is absolutely no reason for them to want or need to resume FSW. They have an endless supply of students, CECs, TFWs and now PNPs, that they will NEVER have to resume FSW again. They may still choose to resume it at some point, but if you think they will eventually have to, because they need FSW for some reason, you're mistaken. FSW is obsolete, and it's a matter of time before the program is abandoned.

Okay I got it. But even if they issued PPRs to 10k expired CoPRs and PNP, that still leaves the number around 40k. Which is a massive chunk of their 2022 quota.

 

[Alysson]

Errr... there are numbers already known.

In around 2019 they were doing 27 K apps a month.
In August they did 29K apps a month.

There are about half a million PR applications remaining to be processed.

August was 37k and July 40k. And they would need to land 45k if they want to achieve the year quota, which they claimed they will, so capacity probably increased. We’ll know September’s numbers next week probably.
https://www.cicnews.com/2021/10/canada-landed-almost-38000-new-immigrants-in-august-2021-1019335.html

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Okay? How is this related to what I said though? I'm not arguing the rate at which they're processing applications. What you said may be perfectly true, and people with applications in progress have some reason to be hopeful. But it is naive to think any of this is positive news with regard to resuming all program draws.

The data indicates that they are processing almost in the same speed CEC applications and other new streams that were introduced this year.

What the IRCC and what the new minister will do for the year 2022 we will understand it from the memo in November, hopefully.

In other words, what I am trying to say is that at the current speed, all applications submitted until now will get a decision by the end of April 2022, expect the complex ones.

So, if we will not have any new more streams announced by the minister, no CEC draws until January, then I believe the All Program draw will resume. Those ITAs sent in January, will start to get processed by the beginning of May with almost full attention of the IRCC.