FSW WORLDWIDE
- Thread starter js555
- Start date
This is great data. The only thing I would add is that, based on the documents, IRCC seems to be working at approximately 30,000/month in 1-year moving average, with the last 3 months at around 26,500/month. This means 40,000 applications / month is too optimistic. If we assume that the all-time high processing is attributed to the CEC mega-draws, and the typical processing speed is closer to 27,000/month. Then all application would be assessed by the end of 10-months (Sep 2022) or Oct 2022 if <1% is rejected.
D
Deleted member 1006777
Guest
Good news for post AOR people. But the original post by @ElvisRamaj indicated that if all program draws resume by January, we'd get in by <whatever month> 2022. This is unlikely. If all program draws resume next year, they will add to the current backlog. 2022 Outland AORs will NOT get their PPRs in 2022. Stop dreaming. More likely is that they will resume CEC draws in January 2022, and keep that up. Owing to the ease of processing and landing (something touched upon in the meetings), these 2022 CECs can expect to be processed in 2022.
What seems more likely is they'll keep up the PNP/CEC draws till July of next year, clear out a majority of the backlog, and then resume all program draws in July/September like they did in 2020. Any pre ITA outlanders expecting to get a PR before mid to late 2023 is in for a rude awakening.
What seems more likely is they'll keep up the PNP/CEC draws till July of next year, clear out a majority of the backlog, and then resume all program draws in July/September like they did in 2020. Any pre ITA outlanders expecting to get a PR before mid to late 2023 is in for a rude awakening.
That's one way to look at it, although given the numbers, my guess is that they'll keep drawing PNP-only until around Feb/March. Then proceed with all-program draws from there, probably with the 3,900 magic number from pre-pandemic times. I'm thinking that IRCC would want to maintain some level of "in-process" applications so that the employees won't run out of work.
Another interesting statistic concerning only Express Entry.
If we take all the ITA sent from 2018 up to now, we have:
According to the document below:
Admissions of Permanent Residents under Express Entry by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, January 2015 - August 2021
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/52e4b14b-597a-4ecf-a184-23a6e69b0d57/resource/88e63879-f893-4edf-af84-70418b5ec114?inner_span=True
We have the following admissions of permanent residents:
As you can see from the table, this year they will definitely surpass 2019 in terms of the volume of processing the applications, even though their work picked up pace in June.
Look for yourself the number of admissions per month this year:
2022 will be a beautiful year for all of us.
If we take all the ITA sent from 2018 up to now, we have:
- In 2018 89,800
- 89,100 All Program
- 200 PNP
- 500 Skilled Trades
- In 2019 85,300
- 84,300 All Program
- 1,000 Skilled Trades
- In 2020 107,350
- 68,100 All Program
- 4,785 PNP
- 32,215 CEC
- In 2021 111,265
- 97,653 CEC
- 11,612 PNP
According to the document below:
Admissions of Permanent Residents under Express Entry by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, January 2015 - August 2021
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/52e4b14b-597a-4ecf-a184-23a6e69b0d57/resource/88e63879-f893-4edf-af84-70418b5ec114?inner_span=True
We have the following admissions of permanent residents:
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Canadian Experience | 27,465 | 30,225 | 24,970 | 79,795 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 17,965 | 20,015 | 14,095 | 10,680 |
| Skilled Trade | 875 | 1,180 | 565 | 105 |
| Skilled Worker | 45,925 | 58,185 | 24,260 | 5,115 |
| Total | 92,230 | 109,600 | 63,890 | 95,700 |
As you can see from the table, this year they will definitely surpass 2019 in terms of the volume of processing the applications, even though their work picked up pace in June.
Look for yourself the number of admissions per month this year:
- January 7205
- February 7910
- March 9780
- April 7950
- May 6840
- June 18470
- July 19210
- August 18335
2022 will be a beautiful year for all of us.
D
Deleted member 1006777
Guest
Great analysis. But I’m sorry to spoil the party with one huge hole in the numbers if you’re a FSW applicant lol. It assumes they already already processing the backlog. But in reality, they are just processing newer CEC applications faster to make up for the 6 month processing stat and the overall annual numbers. If you look at the 2020 and 2021 numbers, FSW approvals are significantly lower compared to even newer CEC application approvals. According to the processing status page, they are now working on CECs from March/April 2021. So question here is when they would actually pick up the FSW backlog instead of just sending endless ITAs and approvals to CEC. If they pick up the backlog, then april 2022 sounds good for FSW. If they don’t and they continue with CEC, no one can tell. It’s not like IRCC is transparent in any way about what they are going to do with pending FSWs from as early as 2019
How did you come up with July 2022? I didn't get it. If they have the plan to resume cec draws by Jan till July, why they have reduced and then halted invitations for the past 3 months(and most likely the rest of the year)?
I am going to ask the reporter. Because this report is shocking and has already created a jitter in various platforms.
D
Deleted member 1006777
Guest
Like I said in my post "like they did in 2020". They did CEC only draws from January to roughly July 2020. They can easily repeat that because now they have precedent. They have reduced the numbers and halted invitations because of the shift in focus to refugees, and the fact that they already have more than enough ITAs issued to meet the high end of this year's targets. Because of this temporary halt in ITAs right now, they may want to resume CEC only draws to get a head start on their 2022 targets because they're easier to process than FSW. Realize that they also have around 50k FSW applications in the pipeline already, many of them close to completion. That's already half of their 2022 targets. Once they have enough of a backlog of CECs in the pipeline, they may reluctantly resume FSW in the second half of 2022. They have absolutely NO reason whatsoever to resume FSW. They may feel sorry for us and have a couple of FSW draws, but we aren't refugees, old, or tourists from rich countries. So I doubt they'll actually do that.
The fact that they're still being sheepish about it and not giving any concrete statements is indicative of their intention to do the same thing they've done in 2020/2021.
Just asked for a clarification:
Hi,
I am a prospective applicant waiting for my Canadian PR since Nov 2020. We really appreciate your work in bringing the massive PR backlogs to light. However, I am unable to understand how 562,000 was arrived at. Even the IRCC data doesn't show that so many people are waiting for a PR. 562,000 is a huge number that many of us never imagined about, so we would like to get a clarification on the number. This is the official IRCC data that I am talking about: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9b34e712-513f-44e9-babf-9df4f7256550/resource/fdc69618-dd90-4f38-b040-3046ee6657db?inner_span=True
I really appreciate it if you could clarify about the 562,000.
Yes, I am a FSW applicant. Almost everyone here is.
In 2019 they admitted 109,600 permanent residents under Express Entry.
Right now in 2021 they are at 95,700 admitted and the average monthly admission rate is 18,000. If they continue with this rate, there will be 149,700 admitted permanent residents this year under Express Entry.
Almost 36% more then in 2019 when every application went smoothly and within their time frame.
D
Deleted member 1050918
Guest
The avg processing time for FSW was 9 months and for PNP it was 8 months in 2019. So it was still slow in 2019.
D
Deleted member 1006777
Guest
Understand that the reason for this '36% more' you're referencing is purely because of their focus on CEC. The bottleneck in 2019 was the fact that they also processed FSW. They have even said so. CEC applications are easier to process, have an instantaneous 'landing' procedure, and they have a near endless supply of international students graduating every year. There is no conceivable reason for FSW to return. They can fulfil their "high skill" quota with CECs, and address any shortages with PNP.
There were different rules I believe in 2019.
Like, you had 90 days to submit your application, now I believe is 60 days. Plus, the IRCC has more workforce now in 2021.