Ray of Hope - 124th Draw

[captainUT]

I have a question..???
When your OINP application got approved..?? And does the approval depends on where you currently live ..like inside Ontario or Outside Ontario???

Here is my timeline, hope it will help. I dont know if it depends on where you live but I'm currently working.

Human Capital Priorities Stream
NOC: 1114
NOI Received: May 31, 2019
Application Submitted: June 12, 2019
Assessment: June 17, 2019
Decision in Progress: June 25, 2019
Approval: July 30, 2019

 

[keyur sharma]

I hope the next draw happens on 21st Aug if it happens on 28th August than CRS cut off will be the same (466)

 

[ziah6237]

an interesting trend for CIC

Whenever the score drops below a lower range Such as 438 (Jan 30), 450 (May 1) and 459 (July 24)

then CIC conducted an unusual draw to push the score to next level (438 -> 457 and 450 -> 470)

I think this is their way of saying: "We are expecting 450 + " score.

 

[Angel1113]

One thing I would like to point out is increasing ITA size doesn't help a lot to lower the score (in fact, I don't see much different between 3350 and 3600)

The draw is 5 days delay only and it pushes the score to 466 (we expected 458 in Aug 7), so it means a lot of high scorers enter the pool (Mostly from PNP I believe)

CIC remained 14 days draw interval after 3 weeks gap in February and 4 weeks gap in May. This is hard to convince me that they will choose the 9 days gap this time (base on CIC passive attitude). In fact, they don't mind to leave a larger 16 days gap.

They can still meet the target at the end of this year. just my 2 cent

Yes I agree the increase in draw size didn't have dramatic impact but in my post I was saying that on June's first draw the cut off dropped from 470 to 465 with 3350 ITA and the gap was 4 weeks. So next cut off can very much be 462+/-1.

And as you said a lot of PNP candidates must have entered in the draw resulting in high CRS. That means less PNP candidates in next draw as there were only fixed no. Of nominations. If more were accepted in this draw then there will be comparatively less left for next. Also if draw is after 9 days then PNP approved in 9 days will enter the pool rather than 19 days worth of PNP applicants.

Last week I said the draw can be conducted on thursday, friday and monday buy not many people agreed. Here we are with a draw.

With all due respect face the reality, I believe the next draw will be conducted on 21st of August 100%. Otherwise, they could have gone with wednesday draw (august 14th). You are welcome to share your views by the way. I like to hear all sides but I am very positive about draw after 9 days.

 

[Punitsingh]

Yes I agree the increase in draw size didn't have dramatic impact but in my post I was saying that on June's first draw the cut off dropped from 470 to 465 with 3350 ITA and the gap was 4 weeks. So next cut off can very much be 462+/-1.

And as you said a lot of PNP candidates must have entered in the draw resulting in high CRS. That means less PNP candidates in next draw as there were only fixed no. Of nominations. If more were accepted in this draw then there will be comparatively less left for next. Also if draw is after 9 days then PNP approved in 9 days will enter the pool rather than 19 days worth of PNP applicants.

Last week I said the draw can be conducted on thursday, friday and monday buy not many people agreed. Here we are with a draw.

With all due respect face the reality, I believe the next draw will be conducted on 21st of August 100%. Otherwise, they could have gone with wednesday draw (august 14th). You are welcome to share your views by the way. I like to hear all sides but I am very positive about draw after 9 days.

Little addition in para 1
When score dropped from 465 to 462 last time , at that time accumulation was 4+2+2= 8 weeks

If there is a draw on 21st accumulation would be of 4 weeks
So 4 weeks lesser accumulation means a lot.

However, nobody knows about PNP approvals in next 9 days, it can be 400 or 1400, nobody knows, hence any prediction may fail

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

I vote for Aug 28

even in Aug 21,,,the CRS will be hard to recover due to this damage.

still remain 460+

From a guy who uses multiple ,,, in a single go, lol. No your vote doesn't count.

 

[mona247]

an interesting trend for CIC

Whenever the score drops below a lower range Such as 438 (Jan 30), 450 (May 1) and 459 (July 24)

then CIC conducted an unusual draw to push the score to next level (438 -> 457 and 450 -> 470)

Yup everyone is noticing this trend and thus day by day people are now talking more and more about artificially managing the CRS score.

I personally feel CIC should just follow one simple logic.
Yearly target divide it into 26 draws. Fix the dates at the beginning of the year and that's it.
People will have a fair idea about where they stand and what they need to do and also CIC will earn a great reputation for being honest and straight forward about immigration.

 

[ersandee]

Yup everyone is noticing this trend and thus day by day people are now talking more and more about artificially managing the CRS score.

I personally feel CIC should just follow one simple logic.
Yearly target divide it into 26 draws. Fix the dates at the beginning of the year and that's it.
People will have a fair idea about where they stand and what they need to do and also CIC will earn a great reputation for being honest and straight forward about immigration.

FUN and collaboration in ROH will be missing then.

 

[mona247]

FUN and collaboration in ROH will be missing then.

Ha ha ha.. we'll still have predictions and pool size trends.. infact we'll have the awesome countdown bets as CIC will become reliable with pre decided dates and draw sizes!!!

 

[ersandee]

an interesting trend for CIC

Whenever the score drops below a lower range Such as 438 (Jan 30), 450 (May 1) and 459 (July 24)

then CIC conducted an unusual draw to push the score to next level (438 -> 457 and 450 -> 470)

I can recall last year when i was look into this waiting for ITA and then PPR, people were saying CIC don't want to go beneath 440 and towards the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 they breach 440 to 439-438. CIC have a target and a plan to achieve that, any deviation from our plan we start saying cic is doing this deliberately. They need lot of immigrants here, govt have created this whole multi-year program for getting people in. So keep hope high & keep trying to get those extra points even if that means doing one year course, don't just wait for things to happen, don't let any stone unturned till you get the results.

 

[tjsecondtry]

The size of the draw depends a lot on how many people are rejecting ITAs. Last year, an abnormally high percentage were rejecting them. This year, I've heard the percentage is smaller.

 

[ersandee]

The size of the draw depends a lot on how many people are rejecting ITAs. Last year, an abnormally high percentage were rejecting them. This year, I've heard the percentage is smaller.

What is the source of your information ?

 

[Ontherock]

In 19 days ( from 24 th july till 12 th august) 3600 profiles added in the score above 466 (including around 400 PNPs)....so roughly 190 profiles in one day.......imagine the profile accumulation in 460 to 466 range till next draw......graph is going inversenow......going at this rate the score is never going to come down below 460 this year it seems....what's ur take guyz????

 

[Ontherock]

I dont get another point......why PNPs are rerouted back to the express entry pool after nomination....let it proceed separately....its creating duplication and diminishing the scope for others....I don't get this logic......take them from EE......process them ..again put them back into EE only to raise the score again...what's the point ??

 

[breakthrough2019]

I’m here just here reading all the comments both positive and negative ones. I have 453 and it’s seeming that it’s never coming down . I can only raise my head high and hope for the best. Who knows there could be a back to back draws next week. Let’s keep fingers crossed and keep praying