Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[Jabya]

Although I am new here and did not dig deep in the available data, I am an Indian and giving opinions and predictions is my birthright so here’s is my prediction for tomorrows draw, which also happens to be my first since I entered pool.

459+-1 with 3350 ITA’s. Cheers and all the best to all!

 

[LKRYA]

Since this is a compensatory draw, I want to believe that they would proceed with 12th and 26th June draws as per original schedule. However, CIC might not rush so much just as yet and may switch to 14 day cycle post this draw. A 21 day gap from 5th June will undo what the would have achieved through the B2B draw.

I feel that CIC will be rational and would atleast switch to a 14 day cycle as a very least. A 5, 12 & 26 Jun draws should be the likely course of action though. This is because 12 & 26 were originally scheduled and 5th Jun draw has been sandwiched in between. Knowing the unpredictability of CIC, we will have to wait and watch.

Wow! if this happens it will ease the burden of many of us. I pray for the same to happen.

Being said that, if there's a draw on 5th and then it is more likely to have a draw on 19th.

 

[ripul]

Yes. That's right. I think majority of offshore applicants have atleast 2 or more certificate or masters as well as 3 or more years work experience. Combine with CLB10 IELTS, they will have 747 and 481 respectively.

Furthermore, those outland applicants that have further studies in Canada get additional points as well for what I understand from CRS score calculator.

Correct ! I know some people in my friend circle who still hasn't completed 2 years of experience but they are ready with their IELTS and ECA. They are just 24-25 years old. So much young people are now aware of immigration process and since scores are high for Australia, they are turning towards Canada.

 

[EnthuChap]

You won't be restricted for your entire life buddy. Its just a matter of 2 years and meanwhile you'll be able to seize plenty options.

My NOC is 2174 Software Developer, looking forward to get an EOI at this point. Its hard to say when it will be conducted. However, looking at the previous scenarios, OINP seems quite active these days, so who knows if we will also get one this month. Let's hope for the best! I want you all to sail through this pool asap.

What about NOC 2174?
Is it included in Ontario's demand list?
Was it also included in the Jan 14 draw of OINP?

I wonder if this has occurred to you or not but 2174 is an occupation in demand in SINP. I strongly advise that you go ahead and create an EOI profile under Express Entry stream in SINP.

 

[13nitinsharma]

You won't be restricted for your entire life buddy. Its just a matter of 2 years and meanwhile you'll be able to seize plenty options.

My NOC is 2174 Software Developer, looking forward to get an EOI at this point. Its hard to say when it will be conducted. However, looking at the previous scenarios, OINP seems quite active these days, so who knows if we will also get one this month. Let's hope for the best! I want you all to sail through this pool asap.

What about NOC 2174?
Is it included in Ontario's demand list?
Was it also included in the Jan 14 draw of OINP?

Yes, 2174 is in Ontario's demand list. The draw happened on Jan 14 was a "General Draw" so they send NOI to everyone with CRS score range 439-448. That means, your NOC was included when draw happened. See the break up below:

HUMAN CAPITAL STREAM (JANUARY 14TH, 2019)
Date/time NOIs issued : January 14, 2019 1:03 p.m. EST
Number of NOIs issued: 1493
Profiles created in IRCC’s Express Entry system: January 14, 2018 to January 14, 2019
CRS score range: 439-448
Notes: General draw

HUMAN CAPITAL STREAM (MAY 31ST, 2019)
Date/time NOIs issued : May 31, 2019 2:00 p.m. EST
Number of NOIs issued: 1072
Profiles created in IRCC’s Express Entry system: May 31, 2018 to May 31, 2019
CRS score range: 439-469
Notes: Targeted draw*

NOIs issued in 2019 to date

• Human Capital Priorities Stream - 2,565
• French-Speaking Skilled Worker Stream - 549
• Skilled Trades Stream - 732

Source: https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-express-entry-notifications-interest

 

[13nitinsharma]

Oh! Is that so? But I've heard that they generally take 3 months. Perhaps, they've reduced the processing time?

Yest, they've now expedited the process time, see the updated process time at below official link:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-application-processing-times-and-nominations-issued#section-1

 

[Jabya]

Yest, they've now expedited the process time, see the updated process time at below official link:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-application-processing-times-and-nominations-issued#section-1

Whats the average processing time for PR from the day you get ITA? I heard its more than 3-4 months, is this true?

 

[Dheana90]

Yest, they've now expedited the process time, see the updated process time at below official link:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-application-processing-times-and-nominations-issued#section-1

But, is the 30-60days are calendar days or working days. If it working days then 3months should be correct for 60days as in a month there is about 21/22working days. So, 60working days mean 3months.

Yest, they've now expedited the process time, see the updated process time at below official link:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-application-processing-times-and-nominations-issued#section-1

With more than 1000 people got NOI from OINP, I can't imagibe how high the cut off gonna be if they are all will be back in the pool at the same time.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Did anyone notice how CIC sneakily decreased the number of ITA's from 3900 to 3350 in January?
In the first two draws of the year i.e Jan 9 and Jan 23, the number of ITA's issued was 3900. And every draw after that came with 3350 ITA's.

This information might not seem much but I believe CIC is up to something, which can be allowing a steady build up of candidates above 430's so that the CRS might not stabilise at a cut off lower than what they desire.

I mean look at it this way. They sure want more immigrants, and the target is higher this year, but they want rather better equipped immigrants.
These recent draws with abnoramly high cut offs are thus, in my opinion, an effort to create a bottleneck. They just can't open the floodgates. They have to take control. 'Planned Immigration' isn't it?

The silver lining though, they can't keep doing this forever. Also, they have achieved what they set out to do (allowing the build up of candidates). So, sooner, they ll have to increase the ITA's, in their own interest. And as a consequence of that, CRS will fall, and for a time stabilise at 440's like always. It just has to. Makes no sense otherwise. Also, they can't fill up the target without dropping to 440's even if they conduct no draws till the last week of December and then conduct a mega draw issuing the entirety of residuary ITA's. The maths just won't agree to that!

35100 ITA's issued. Mean target 86000. 6 months to go. That comes down to 8500 450+ candidates each month. Just no way can they achieve target with just 450+.

Senior members, any views on this?

Just wait and watch in this month, we'll get the clear stats for the upcoming draws.

I strongly believe there will be 3 draws in this month and from July onwards, ITA's will be increased to 3,900.

 

[indpnv]

Whats the average processing time for PR from the day you get ITA? I heard its more than 3-4 months, is this true?

This tracker should give you a fair idea.

https://myimmitracker.com/en/ca/trackers/consolidated-e-apr-tracker-express-entry-permanent-residency-application

Some entries may not have been updated though.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Congratulations Nitin for the OINP ITA!
Hard work, patience and hope always pays off!!

Thank you and Good luck to you too. I hope everyone of us get our ITA's soon

 

[Avmaia]

I highly doubt that anyone has 470+ without an PNP or if he's some sort of genius with lots of degrees or possibly someone who worked a skilled job in Canada for 2 years and didn't realize that he qualifies for express entry which is very rare indeed or someone with a LMIA which again is very rare since employers hate disclosing their financial information to any government authority and it has a technical process to follow! Foreigners outside of Canada barely make it in the 440's without PNP's etc.

Just saying, im at 495 with with masters degree, 2 years work exp, ielts and tef.

Masters degree doesnt make much difference, just bachelors+2 years work exp+english+french is enough to go over 470.

I'm not a native English or French speaker, took 3 months of dedicated intensive French classes and did the proficiency test for easy points.

So if you have English and French, 470 is not that hard to achieve.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Whats the average processing time for PR from the day you get ITA? I heard its more than 3-4 months, is this true?

There're various factors involved in the processing time such as how well your application submitted (no missing docs), visa office where your file is assigned. On an average, it takes 4-5 months these days based on the current trend of processing.

 

[skg1988]

Just wait and watch in this month, we'll get the clear stats for the upcoming draws.

I strongly believe there will be 3 draws in this month and from July onwards, ITA's will be increased to 3,900.

Me too!!! Please don't ask the logic.

 

[13nitinsharma]

But, is the 30-60days are calendar days or working days. If it working days then 3months should be correct for 60days as in a month there is about 21/22working days. So, 60working days mean 3months.



With more than 1000 people got NOI from OINP, I can't imagibe how high the cut off gonna be if they are all will be back in the pool at the same time.

These are calendar days, otherwise they must have updated on their website if it's working days. Moreover, I've seen many of my friends have got their NOI approved in 30-35 calendar days.

There is no impact of current OINP draw on this and next two draws at least since OINP takes 30-40 days to approve the file and then, we'll get 600 additional points in our express entry profile.