Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[Dheana90]

No, not at all. Cut-off won't be 470 if draw occurs next week instead of today. It should be much lower than 470 - around 460 or may be a notch lower than 460.

I agree, As tomorrow, 5th June, the score will be approximately:

600+= 203(29profile x7days)
451-600= 3203 + 1477(211x7) =4680
441-450=6052 + 252 (36x7)=6304

With the 3350ITAs, score distribution after the draw should look like:
600+= 0 (3350-203)
451-600= 1533 (4680-3147)
441-450=6304

With 3500ITAs
600+= 0 (3500-203)
451-600= 1383 (4680-3297)
441-450=6304

With 3900ITAs
600+= 0 (3350-203)
451-600= 983 (4680-3697)
441-450=6304

But, if there is no B2B draw tomorrow and CIC decided to do forthnight draw from now on and conduct the draw on 12th June, by then the score will be approximately:

600+= 406 (29profile x14days)
451-600= 3203 + 2954(211x14) =6157
441-450=6052 + 504(36x14)=6556

After the draw the score distribution should be:
With 3350ITA
600+= 0
451-600= 3213 (6157-2944)
441-450=6556

With 3500ITA
600+= 0
451-600= 3063(6157-3094)
441-450=6556

With 3900ITA
600+= 0
451-600= 2663(6157-3494)
441-450=6556

 

[Dheana90]

The increased interest from Outland explains the phenomenon we are observing.

Yes. I agree. Increasing number of outland applicants that are neglected from PR program from US and Australia (like myself) and fresh postgrad inland students that finish their course recently.

 

[Dheana90]

I think, if a profile doesn't respond to the ITA then it gets removed out of the pool for being in the inactive state. I guess!

I hope that's really the case, otherwise the score might not gonna come down tht fast

 

[indpnv]

its too high and I highly doubt that anyone has 470+ without an PNP or if he's some sort of genius with lots of degrees or possibly someone who worked a skilled job in Canada for 2 years and didn't realize that he qualifies for express entry which is very rare indeed or someone with a LMIA which again is very rare since employers hate disclosing their financial information to any government authority and it has a technical process to follow! Foreigners outside of Canada barely make it in the 440's without PNP's etc.

This is not a true statement. Some one with a Master's degree + CLB 10 + 3+ years work xp + < 30 years old can get a 481.
In my opinion, there is a lot of interest in Canada compared to the previous years. Just look at the pool size.

 

[indpnv]

I think, if a profile doesn't respond to the ITA then it gets removed out of the pool for being in the inactive state. I guess!

That's right, this is what the ITA says:

Failure to take action
This invitation will expire if you do not
• decline the invitation to apply for permanent residence; and
• you do not submit an application for permanent residence within the 60 day time period.
If you fail to take action your Invitation to Apply will expire and your profile will not be considered for future
invitations. If you later decide that you wish to be considered in future rounds of invitation, you will need to submit
a new Express Entry profile, meet minimum requirements and register with Job Bank if applicable.

 

[sandra.velosa]

I am on 470, It's a tie-breaker it seems, what are the rules of tie-breaker?

They look at the time down to the second. The person with the oldest profile receives an ITA

 

[Dheana90]

That's right, this is what the ITA says:

Failure to take action
This invitation will expire if you do not
• decline the invitation to apply for permanent residence; and
• you do not submit an application for permanent residence within the 60 day time period.
If you fail to take action your Invitation to Apply will expire and your profile will not be considered for future
invitations. If you later decide that you wish to be considered in future rounds of invitation, you will need to submit
a new Express Entry profile, meet minimum requirements and register with Job Bank if applicable.

So, if they decline,they will go back in the pool,right?

It's only IF they do not take action at all that their profile will not be consider?

 

[indpnv]

So, if they decline,they will go back in the pool,right?

It's only IF they do not take action at all that their profile will not be consider?

Yes, that's correct. You decline, you go back to the pool till the profile expires.

 

[SeniorStakes]

So, if they decline,they will go back in the pool,right?

It's only IF they do not take action at all that their profile will not be consider?

Yes, declining will put them back in the pool. Technically, a person can block few slots permanently by constantly declining.

If they don't decline, not sure what happens - it should make the profile inactive.

 

[LKRYA]

So

So, you don't want the score to reach 440+ too fast,dear?? Hahaha Jokes

what i meant was it will drop down to early 440s (440-445 range)

 

[skg1988]

This is not possible , if draw happens on June 5th with increased ITA , CIC will be looking to maintain two week draws till december

I know it's extremely unlikely to happen.
However, nobody knows how CIC has planned to conduct draws. The only thing which is open to all is the target , 81400. If CIC can conduct a draw with a 4-week gap, I don't see any problem with 3 draws in this month in a simmilar fashion like jan.


What about June 5th, June 19th, and June 26th??? I know it sounds stupid, but I would like to take shot on this scenario as well.

 

[Dheana90]

what i meant was it will drop down to early 440s (440-445 range)

Ooopppss, sorry dear...My bad, didn't read properly.

 

[Dheana90]

This is not a true statement. Some one with a Master's degree + CLB 10 + 3+ years work xp + < 30 years old can get a 481.
In my opinion, there is a lot of interest in Canada compared to the previous years. Just look at the pool size.

Yes. That's right. I think majority of offshore applicants have atleast 2 or more certificate or masters as well as 3 or more years work experience. Combine with CLB10 IELTS, they will have 747 and 481 respectively.

Furthermore, those outland applicants that have further studies in Canada get additional points as well for what I understand from CRS score calculator.

 

[EnthuChap]

Only primary NOC matters for the purpose of PNP nomination

Thanks. That helps.

 

[EnthuChap]

You missed one scenario: June 5, June, 12 and June 26
Although highly unlikely to happen, but if it happens, I won't be surprised. Just trying to fix the damage done by an FST draw on 15th May.
Additionally, we are going to nail down #ITAs @13nitinsharma @NikSharma01 @EnthuChap @Shannoh @shishir

Since this is a compensatory draw, I want to believe that they would proceed with 12th and 26th June draws as per original schedule. However, CIC might not rush so much just as yet and may switch to 14 day cycle post this draw. A 21 day gap from 5th June will undo what the would have achieved through the B2B draw.

I feel that CIC will be rational and would atleast switch to a 14 day cycle as a very least. A 5, 12 & 26 Jun draws should be the likely course of action though. This is because 12 & 26 were originally scheduled and 5th Jun draw has been sandwiched in between. Knowing the unpredictability of CIC, we will have to wait and watch.