Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[Rangrez]

With the kind of money organizations like British Council, IDP and WES make; you would expect them to provide basic validation API's which would be no more than a couple of REST API's which would take TRF number or ECA number and then confirm whether the IELTS scores or ECA numbers are genuine. But, unfortunately these are farfetched expectations from these money minded organizations. If CIC could impose such system, then they would have to do it as they bring a lot of business to these organizations. It would work beautifully since there is a one-one mapping between your TRF or ECA number and your profile, no one can have similar numbers or invalid/fake numbers.

In addition to this, they have access to all the reports that's why they have select only few organizations to do the validation of documents/other things. For instance, this link https://ielts.ucles.org.uk/ielts-trf/index.jsp can validate the IELTS score. So they might something similar service from ECA validation organizations.

 

[Nsidhu]

If draw on 5th then next draw must be on 12th June otherwise there is no point of 3 weeks gap again.

I heard people saying score going to 470+ if 12th June assuming it is following 2 week pattern. Can you provide some fact check. I know people with high score entering but 470+ sounds too ambitious for me .. this is just my opinion please feel free to comment

if draw is on 5th then next will be on 19th .. there is no 3 week gap .. 29th to 5th june ( 1 week gap means b2b draw) and 5 june to 19 june ( 2 week gap) ,.,.... if no draw on june 5 then 29 may to june 12 ( 2 week gap)

i don't understand 3 week gap??

 

[sarak1812]

if draw is on 5th then next will be on 19th .. there is no 3 week gap .. 29th to 5th june ( 1 week gap means b2b draw) and 5 june to 19 june ( 2 week gap) ,.,.... if no draw on june 5 then 29 may to june 12 ( 2 week gap)

i don't understand 3 week gap??

Yea this makes sense . I was thinking if draw on 5th June and then next must be on 12th June or 19th June and then directly on 26th June .

If on 5th and then directly on 26th does no benefit

 

[skg1988]

If CIC increases #ITAs and conducts a draw this Wednesday, I promise to cheer for Raptors in the coming game. Come on CIC !!!!!!!

 

[NikSharma01]

@

Yea this makes sense . I was thinking if draw on 5th June and then next must be on 12th June or 19th June and then directly on 26th June .

If on 5th and then directly on 26th does no benefit

if draw is on 5th then next will be on 19th .. there is no 3 week gap .. 29th to 5th june ( 1 week gap means b2b draw) and 5 june to 19 june ( 2 week gap) ,.,.... if no draw on june 5 then 29 may to june 12 ( 2 week gap)

i don't understand 3 week gap??

Three scenarios could happen:

• Draw on June 5, June 26 (3 weeks)
• Draw on June 12, June 26 (2 weeks)
• Draw on June 5, June 19 (2 weeks)

In first case, the cut-off will spike back to 470s again. So, b2b draw won't be helpful if it is followed by a 3 weeks gap.

In second case, the cut-off will hover in the 460s. If the consistency of regular fortnightly draws is maintained.

In third case, because of the B2B draw and a regular one right after, the cut-off will remain in 450s. Even it could drop below 455.

Whichever the case is followed, there will only be 2 draws in total this month!

 

[skg1988]

@


Three scenarios could happen:

• Draw on June 5, June 26 (3 weeks)
• Draw on June 12, June 26 (2 weeks)
• Draw on June 5, June 19 (2 weeks)

In first case, the cut-off will spike back to 470s again. So, b2b draw won't be helpful if it is followed by a 3 weeks gap.

In second case, the cut-off will hover in the 460s. If the consistency of regular fortnightly draws is maintained.

In third case, because of the B2B draw and a regular one right after, the cut-off will remain in 450s. Even it could drop below 455.

Whichever the case is followed, there will only be 2 draws in total this month!

You missed one scenario: June 5, June, 12 and June 26
Although highly unlikely to happen, but if it happens, I won't be surprised. Just trying to fix the damage done by an FST draw on 15th May.
Additionally, we are going to nail down #ITAs @13nitinsharma @NikSharma01 @EnthuChap @Shannoh @shishir

 

[hakweye]

@


Three scenarios could happen:

• Draw on June 5, June 26 (3 weeks)
• Draw on June 12, June 26 (2 weeks)
• Draw on June 5, June 19 (2 weeks)

In first case, the cut-off will spike back to 470s again. So, b2b draw won't be helpful if it is followed by a 3 weeks gap.

In second case, the cut-off will hover in the 460s. If the consistency of regular fortnightly draws is maintained.

In third case, because of the B2B draw and a regular one right after, the cut-off will remain in 450s. Even it could drop below 455.

Whichever the case is followed, there will only be 2 draws in total this month!

I'm leaning towards 3rd case, after this B2B CIC could maintain fortnightly draws till December .

 

[hakweye]

You missed one scenario: June 5, June, 12 and June 26
Although highly unlikely to happen, but if it happens, I won't be surprised. Just trying to fix the damage done by an FST draw on 15th May.
Additionally, we are going to nail down #ITAs @13nitinsharma @NikSharma01 @EnthuChap @Shannoh @shishir

This is not possible , if draw happens on June 5th with increased ITA , CIC will be looking to maintain two week draws till december

 

[Dheana90]

Yes, agreed. What do you think when will the next draw happen if we see a draw on this Wednesday? Are they going to do a regular 2 weeks basis which means on June 19th? If the next next draw does not happens on 2 weeks basis, then I don't understand the point of doing this back to back draw on this Wednesday because the cut off point will rise again.

I would expect that if there will be a draw tomorrow, CIC should go back on regular 2 weeks interval. So, after this Wednesday, I expect the next draw should be taken place on 19th like you said.

It has to be a DRAW on Wednesday to fix the damage they've caused after 4 weeks gap. Because if there is no B2B draw tomorrow and CIC decided to do forthnight draw from now on and conduct the draw on 12th June ,by then the score will be approximately:

600+= 406 (29profile x14days)
451-600= 3203 + 2954(211x14) =6157
441-450=6052 + 504(36x14)=6556

After the draw the score distribution should be:
With 3350ITA
600+= 0
451-600= 3213 (6157-2944)
441-450=6556

With 3500ITA
600+= 0
451-600= 3063(6157-3094)
441-450=6556

With 3900ITA
600+= 0
451-600= 2663(6157-3494)
441-450=6556

With the same number of 3350ITA won't fix the damage fast even if they do regular 2weeks draw (if no B2B draw this Wednesday), because of the increasing number of ppl entering the pool with the score of 451 and above. So, b2b draw needs to happen on Wednesday (maybe with increase ITA) follow by regular 2weeks draw.

 

[LKRYA]

I'm leaning towards 3rd case, after this B2B CIC could maintain fortnightly draws till December .

This will hit the CRS score to early 440s.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Chances for 456 in June?

90 percent if there is a draw today; otherwise, 75 percent.

 

[Dheana90]

So

This will hit the CRS score to early 440s.

So, you don't want the score to reach 440+ too fast,dear?? Hahaha Jokes

 

[SeniorStakes]

If draw on 5th then next draw must be on 12th June otherwise there is no point of 3 weeks gap again.

I heard people saying score going to 470+ if 12th June assuming it is following 2 week pattern. Can you provide some fact check. I know people with high score entering but 470+ sounds too ambitious for me .. this is just my opinion please feel free to comment

No, not at all. Cut-off won't be 470 if draw occurs next week instead of today. It should be much lower than 470 - around 460 or may be a notch lower than 460.

 

[danda]

I have been following this thread for awhile...and I believe thats its time to state what I think is going on, this whole issue is the Canadian Governments problem I call this a major "mismanagement" on behalf of them, there is no way the scores will even rise above 470 in the long run and I believe that this is an abnormality caused as a result of "idiots" who put false information on their express entry profiles leading to cut-offs like these even with no draws happening that month it doesn't justify 470. The only way CIC can fix this hole in their system is to issue more ITA's in numbers and in draws if they're only going to play with 3350 you are going to have 60% of those profiles deemed as "Fake" with incorrect information leading to legitimate people like me and you to not even get an ITA..Why not increase it to 4000 people?...What this government doesn't understand is this....Skilled People with PGWP and legitimate profiles are at risk of leaving the country due to their work permits expiring soon instead of the government retaining these people they themselves are causing a distortion within the labour market. The idea of express entry should be flexibility the system itself has many flaws that the government needs to address. If you're telling me that last year we were between 440-450 and now we are above 460+ then something is definitely going wrong...if native Canadians can't get an 8777 in IELTS and many newspapers in Canada are having grammatical errors in writing then what is the point of a 470 cut-off? its too high and I highly doubt that anyone has 470+ without an PNP or if he's some sort of genius with lots of degrees or possibly someone who worked a skilled job in Canada for 2 years and didn't realize that he qualifies for express entry which is very rare indeed or someone with a LMIA which again is very rare since employers hate disclosing their financial information to any government authority and it has a technical process to follow! Foreigners outside of Canada barely make it in the 440's without PNP's etc.

Something is wrong and CIC needs to fix this...

is there a ray of hope yes? Only if the Canadian government does the right thing right, but now their only focus is their rubbish containers coming back from developing countries or the raptors, believe me I've seen people who lived here for 8+ years and got nothing in return.Yet, they want to feel apart of Canada I understand that this system is backward. But, 470 is a sign for CIC to take matters seriously I have faith that CIC will fix this.

 

[SeniorStakes]

I have been following this thread for awhile...and I believe thats its time to state what I think is going on, this whole issue is the Canadian Governments problem I call this a major "mismanagement" on behalf of them, there is no way the scores will even rise above 470 in the long run and I believe that this is an abnormality caused as a result of "idiots" who put false information on their express entry profiles leading to cut-offs like these even with no draws happening that month it doesn't justify 470. The only way CIC can fix this hole in their system is to issue more ITA's in numbers and in draws if they're only going to play with 3350 you are going to have 60% of those profiles deemed as "Fake" with incorrect information leading to legitimate people like me and you to not even get an ITA..Why not increase it to 4000 people?...What this government doesn't understand is this....Skilled People with PGWP and legitimate profiles are at risk of leaving the country due to their work permits expiring soon instead of the government retaining these people they themselves are causing a distortion within the labour market. The idea of express entry should be flexibility the system itself has many flaws that the government needs to address. If you're telling me that last year we were between 440-450 and now we are above 460+ then something is definitely going wrong...if native Canadians can't get an 8777 in IELTS and many newspapers in Canada are having grammatical errors in writing then what is the point of a 470 cut-off? its too high and I highly doubt that anyone has 470+ without an PNP or if he's some sort of genius with lots of degrees or possibly someone who worked a skilled job in Canada for 2 years and didn't realize that he qualifies for express entry which is very rare indeed or someone with a LMIA which again is very rare since employers hate disclosing their financial information to any government authority and it has a technical process to follow! Foreigners outside of Canada barely make it in the 440's without PNP's etc.

Something is wrong and CIC needs to fix this...

is there a ray of hope yes? Only if the Canadian government does the right thing right, but now their only focus is their rubbish containers coming back from developing countries or the raptors, believe me I've seen people who lived here for 8+ years and got nothing in return.Yet, they want to feel apart of Canada I understand that this system is backward. But, 470 is a sign for CIC to take matters seriously I have faith that CIC will fix this.

The increased interest from Outland explains the phenomenon we are observing.