Ray of Hope - 96th Draw

[RPS92]

Great if there’s OINP then forget the scores going down anywhere below 442!!

 

[YPS]

Yes! It is true! I got a message this morning too with NOI from Ontario (French Speaking Skilled Worker). I selected French as first language and English as second. My NOC is 1112.

They could be reissuing under HCP pretty soon too. Best of lucks to all of us!

Congratulations finally after a long wait

 

[navinball]

Great if there’s OINP then forget the scores going down anywhere below 442!!

not sure why? oinp will look for lower scores below ita.

 

[samikdg]

Saw a lot of debate on 2-week/3-week draws here, here is my analysis and forecast for the remaining FSW draw dates and sizes in 2018. IRCC is not controlling the CRS cut-off score, but by controlling these dates and sizes, cut-off has stabilized between 440-455 region. Though in second draw of August, we may see 438/439. But again it will increase in September due to the 3-week draw as per postulated dates below.

Postulates:
1. IRCC will not have 3 FSW draws in any given month.
2. Will keep a minimum of 2-weeks (or 12 days if Monday draw) gap between draws, no back-to-back draws.
3. Will try to keep the 2 draw dates in a month as close as possible to 10th and 25th of that month (had seen this theory from another poster couple of months back, but was not further discussed)
4. Draws with 3-week gaps to be held in all Quarter-ending months - March, June, September, December, to keep the sanctity of points 1 and 3 above. The draw immediately after the 3-week draw may be a 12-day draw (has happened twice), but it will also depend on holiday schedule
5. Draw size pattern to be 4 consecutive draws with same size and the progression will be 2750 (this starts in Dec 2017) - 3000 - 3500 - 3750 - 4000 - 3750 - 3500. This will total to 84,500 ITAs in 2018. Additionally 2 FST + PNP draws - one in May (700) and one to be in November (around 700-800), will make the total number as 86,000 what we've been discussing.

Jan-July is actual data and Aug-Dec is postulated data in table below.

Month 1st Draw date 2nd Draw date Draw Size
January 10th Jan 24th Jan 2750
February 7th Feb 21st Feb 3000
March 14th Mar (3-week) 26th Mar (12 days) 3000
April 11th Apr (16 days) 25th Apr 3500
May 9th May 23rd May 3500 (FST+PNP draw on 30th May)
June 13th June (3-week) 25th June (12 days) 3750
July 11th July (16 days) 25th July 3750
Aug 8th Aug 22nd Aug 4000
Sep 12th Sep (3-week) 24th/26th Sep 4000
Oct 10th Oct 24th Oct 3750
Nov 7th Nov 21st Nov 3750 (Possible FST+PNP draw on 28th Nov)
Dec 12th Dec (3-week) 24th Dec (12 days) 3500

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Saw a lot of debate on 2-week/3-week draws here, here is my analysis and forecast for the remaining FSW draw dates and sizes in 2018. IRCC is not controlling the CRS cut-off score, but by controlling these dates and sizes, cut-off has stabilized between 440-455 region. Though in second draw of August, we may see 438/439. But again it will increase in September due to the 3-week draw as per postulated dates below.

Postulates:
1. IRCC will not have 3 FSW draws in any given month.
2. Will keep a minimum of 2-weeks (or 12 days if Monday draw) gap between draws, no back-to-back draws.
3. Will try to keep the 2 draw dates in a month as close as possible to 10th and 25th of that month (had seen this theory from another poster couple of months back, but was not further discussed)
4. Draws with 3-week gaps to be held in all Quarter-ending months - March, June, September, December, to keep the sanctity of points 1 and 3 above. The draw immediately after the 3-week draw may be a 12-day draw (has happened twice), but it will also depend on holiday schedule
5. Draw size pattern to be 4 consecutive draws with same size and the progression will be 2750 (this starts in Dec 2017) - 3000 - 3500 - 3750 - 4000 - 3750 - 3500. This will total to 84,500 ITAs in 2018. Additionally 2 FST + PNP draws - one in May (700) and one to be in November (around 700-800), will make the total number as 86,000 what we've been discussing.

Jan-July is actual data and Aug-Dec is postulated data in table below.

Month 1st Draw date 2nd Draw date Draw Size
January 10th Jan 24th Jan 2750
February 7th Feb 21st Feb 3000
March 14th Mar (3-week) 26th Mar (12 days) 3000
April 11th Apr (16 days) 25th Apr 3500
May 9th May 23rd May 3500 (FST+PNP draw on 30th May)
June 13th June (3-week) 25th June (12 days) 3750
July 11th July (16 days) 25th July 3750
Aug 8th Aug 22nd Aug 4000
Sep 12th Sep (3-week) 24th/26th Sep 4000
Oct 10th Oct 24th Oct 3750
Nov 7th Nov 21st Nov 3750 (Possible FST+PNP draw on 28th Nov)
Dec 12th Dec (3-week) 24th Dec (12 days) 3500

I applaud the way you've rightly stated you observations, i really do. And like you mentioned, we here knew about points 1,2 and 3 way before now.
The disappointing bit for me in your analysis is that there would be only one narrow window of opportunity for those sub 440, only in the second draw of August. After that draw size would decrease and there would be a 3week gap which will shoot CRS scores right up again.
Precise analysis and forecast but a sad harsh truth for those of us sub 440.

 

[indpnv]

I applaud the way you've rightly stated you observations, i really do. And like you mentioned, we here knew about points 1,2 and 3 way before now.
The disappointing bit for me in your analysis is that there would be only one narrow window of opportunity for those sub 440, only in the second draw of August. After that draw size would decrease and there would be a 3week gap which will shoot CRS scores right up again.
Precise analysis and forecast but a sad harsh truth for those of us sub 440.

Oh well, time to pack up I guess. Unless the next draw is favorable.

 

[Aarti123]

not sure why? oinp will look for lower scores below ita.

Once approved they add 600 to those ppl with low scores therefore making them eligible for ita on next draw. So the overall crs score raises

 

[Reddiered07]

Once approved they add 600 to those ppl with low scores therefore making them eligible for ita on next draw. So the overall crs score raises

Every draw there are anyways 500 pnps nominated..so new pnp nois don't make any difference! Trend will be the same!

 

[ishangodbole]

Does the six month average balance need to be more than $12,475 CAD for single person? The average balance is not more than $12,475 but I have more than that in my bank account right now and all the deposit is legit i.e. salary.

 

[Aarti123]

Every draw there are anyways 500 pnps nominated..so new pnp nois don't make any difference! Trend will be the same!

Ahh I see.
@navinball my bad. I had it wrong. This is good news to me

 

[Reddiered07]

Does the six month average balance need to be more than $12,475 CAD for single person? The average balance is not more than $12,475 but I have more than that in my bank account right now and all the deposit is legit i.e. salary.

They ask for 6 month avg balance to identify if any huge amount is suddenly deposited..its just an indicator for them to ask for proof of funds..so chill if you have the required liquidable funds then fine!

 

[Polarbear1]

Yes! It is true! I got a message this morning too with NOI from Ontario (French Speaking Skilled Worker). I selected French as first language and English as second. My NOC is 1112.

They could be reissuing under HCP pretty soon too. Best of lucks to all of us!

Congratulations....what was your TEF score, may I ask?

 

[Reddiered07]

Congratulations....what was your TEF score, may I ask?

Its in his signature for HCP french speaking one needs to have CLB 7..thats enough for OINP NOI..they don't care about CRS!

 

[Polarbear1]

Its in his signature for HCP french speaking one needs to have CLB 7..thats enough for OINP NOI..they don't care about CRS!

Okay thanks...I think it's a 'she'

 

[Reddiered07]

Okay thanks...I think it's a 'she'

What's your CRS? May I ask?