Ray of Hope - 95th Draw

[journey21]

i think alot of ppl are v v frustrated

 

[navinball]

Did you just correct his grammar and imply he didn't deserve an 8? That's not very nice It's casual language, nothing wrong in saying "I got [a score of] 8 in speaking"

its so ridiculous that ielts speaking is highly subjective and depends on the mood of the evaluator that day. humans just cant evaluate these things.

 

[gauravmlal]

We've seen 3 week draws, we've seen huge influx/issuing of pnp the week cut off was bound to drop significantly (maybe coincidence, we may never know). About time something is done to benefit those on 430 to 440 too. So, back to back draws this week, or/and an increase in draw size to 4000. To predict next draw score, can we please help work out an estimate of those on 440 and 441 @NOMAD2017 @samikdg @uthejsree @syntaxrage @at4446 @Diptinaik7 @abhishek_89 @Ronja5200 @Reddiered07

Interesting, but dire assessment (I'll be loosing 6points by the end of July). In my case, It'll do no harm to hope for a back to back draw though, since I've already maxed IELTS. Since, the result for the last IELTS was not as good as the previous ones, the Impact of the results might be negligible. Moreover, the last draw cleared almost everyone on 442. Having an idea of the number of candidates on 441 and 440 can help determine the possibility of a sub 440 cut off soon.

May 23 cleared 441 and also 440 till December 2017. Now In the last two months we have seen 4 IELTS results, so we may have aspirants with CRS upgraded to 440 as well as 441. There might also be some new entrants ranging to somewhere between 300-400 on 441 from May 23 and similar number on 440 for sure . Lets count people on 440 from Dec17 to July 15th. Again number should be between 500-800 and people with IELTS result upgrades should be around 150-200 on each CRS score. So roughly it comes out to be 400+400+800+ 200 +200 =~ 2000 people standing between 441 and first entry of 439. This estimate may look rebuke-able but I am just guessing and hence may be totally wrong.

 

[navinball]

May 23 cleared 441 and also 440 till December 2017. Now In the last two months we have seen 4 IELTS results, so we may have aspirants with CRS upgraded to 440 as well as 441. There might also be some new entrants ranging to somewhere between 300-400 on 441 from May 23 and similar number on 440 for sure . Lets count people on 440 from Dec17 to July 15th. Again number should be between 500-800 and people with IELTS result upgrades should be around 150-200 on each CRS score. So roughly it comes out to be 400+400+800+ 200 +200 =~ 2000 people standing between 441 and first entry of 439. This estimate may look rebuke-able but I am just guessing and hence may be totally wrong.

2000 seems right for that range.

 

[FairOntario]

May 23 cleared 441 and also 440 till December 2017. Now In the last two months we have seen 4 IELTS results, so we may have aspirants with CRS upgraded to 440 as well as 441. There might also be some new entrants ranging to somewhere between 300-400 on 441 from May 23 and similar number on 440 for sure . Lets count people on 440 from Dec17 to July 15th. Again number should be between 500-800 and people with IELTS result upgrades should be around 150-200 on each CRS score. So roughly it comes out to be 400+400+800+ 200 +200 =~ 2000 people standing between 441 and first entry of 439. This estimate may look rebuke-able but I am just guessing and hence may be totally wrong.

Even if I don’t get ITA till I loose points, I'll be content if draws occur consistently without anymore seeming tinkering, then perhaps we might go sub 440 (435 to 439) sometime in September. You analysts keep us hopeful.

It's amazing how you've been able to arrive at these estimates, just brilliant. Working on your figures, assuming new entrants 442 above (including new pnp recipients) are 300/week, hence the following estimates on 24th July:

440 till 24th July: 1400
441 till 24th July: 1400
442 and above: 600
Total: 3400

Assuming ITA size stays thesame, safe to project conservatively a 441 or 440 cutoff on the 25th of July? But, what would the tie break date be for these 2 scenarios? Then we could start hoping for a sub 440 cut off.

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Even if I don’t get ITA till I loose points, I'll be content if draws occur consistently without anymore seeming tinkering, then perhaps we might go sub 440 (435 to 439) sometime in September. You analysts keep us hopeful.

It's amazing how you've been able to arrive at these estimates, just brilliant. Working on your figures, assuming new entrants 442 above (including new pnp recipients) are 300/week, hence the following estimates on 24th July:

440 till 24th July: 1400
441 till 24th July: 1400
442 and above: 600
Total: 3400

Assuming ITA size stays thesame, safe to project conservatively a 441 or 440 cutoff on the 25th of July? But, what would the tie break date be for these 2 scenarios? Then we could start hoping for a sub 440 cut off.

All are assumptions and hypothesis that clouds our mind and make us hope in vain. A clear example is the prediction of the last draw that most (even the trusted predictors) thought would be 440 after a 16days gap before the draw. But we got 442 despite no ielts results 2weeks in and around the draw. And from figures IRCC release there were about 1000 new entrant into the pool 5days before the draw. NO ONE SAW THIS COMING AND NO ONE CAN EXPLAIN IT EITHER.
So enough of the bold talk, people should just increase scores IF they can,then sit hope and pray.

 

[harshala]

Hi Guyz..
After a long long journey of 4 years with score of 389 have finally been able to reach 447 with CLB 9 and ECA of spouse...

Just missed 11th july draw by one day as my spouse's ECA came on 12th..Till then was on 438 since Dec 2017..

Wanted to know with 2 ielts results before 25th draw, do i stand a chance with score of 447?

Sick n tiredof this waiting game now..

 

[AlfredoInans]

All are assumptions and hypothesis that clouds our mind and make us hope in vain. A clear example is the prediction of the last draw that most (even the trusted predictors) thought would be 440 after a 16days gap before the draw. But we got 442 despite no ielts results 2weeks in and around the draw. And from figures IRCC release there were about 1000 new entrant into the pool 5days before the draw. NO ONE SAW THIS COMING AND NO ONE CAN EXPLAIN IT EITHER.
So enough of the bold talk, people should just increase scores IF they can,then sit hope and pray.

People posting predictions/analysis doesn't stop anyone from increasing their scores. Also, "NO ONE SAW THIS COMING AND NO ONE CAN EXPLAIN IT EITHER" is pretty wrong cos anyone who was actually paying attention wouldn't have expected anything different and most predictions had the score around 442 anyway. 1000 people in 5 days = 200 per day which is a very reasonable average so why act like it's something so magical or baffling? The first 3 week gap in the year took the score up to 456. The draw 12 days after saw it drop 10 points to 446, and the following draw another 2 points to 444 because the number of ITAs increased from 3000 to 3500. This latest 3 week gap took it up to 451 and then 12 days after it came down 9 points to 442 with a tie break in December, and the following draw it stayed at 442 with a tie break much closer (in June). The reason it didn't drop further is because unlike in April, the number of ITAs did not increase.

Yes the system is unpredictable and anything can happen but people can get a fairly good sense of how things are proceeding. Also, ielts/no ielts has never affected scores in the past. It's so random and strange that people continue to mention that despite no evidence to suggest it does.

 

[hope2018]

Hi Guyz..
After a long long journey of 4 years with score of 389 have finally been able to reach 447 with CLB 9 and ECA of spouse...

Just missed 11th july draw by one day as my spouse's ECA came on 12th..Till then was on 438 since Dec 2017..

Wanted to know with 2 ielts results before 25th draw, do i stand a chance with score of 447?

Sick n tiredof this waiting game now..

It's an excellent score, your patience and persistence should certainly reward you in the next draw. Goodluck!

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

People posting predictions/analysis doesn't stop anyone from increasing their scores. Also, "NO ONE SAW THIS COMING AND NO ONE CAN EXPLAIN IT EITHER" is pretty wrong cos anyone who was actually paying attention wouldn't have expected anything different and most predictions had the score around 442 anyway. 1000 people in 5 days = 200 per day which is a very reasonable average so why act like it's something so magical or baffling? The first 3 week gap in the year took the score up to 456. The draw 12 days after saw it drop 10 points to 446, and the following draw another 2 points to 444 because the number of ITAs increased from 3000 to 3500. This latest 3 week gap took it up to 451 and then 12 days after it came down 9 points to 442 with a tie break in December, and the following draw it stayed at 442 with a tie break much closer (in June). The reason it didn't drop further is because unlike in April, the number of ITAs did not increase.

Yes the system is unpredictable and anything can happen but people can get a fairly good sense of how things are proceeding. Also, ielts/no ielts has never affected scores in the past. It's so random and strange that people continue to mention that despite no evidence to suggest it does.

So i guess what you are saying is everything is moving along as they should and we should expect further drop in CRS irrespective of the 2 ielts results coming out before the next round of invitation, and probably more drop as draw size hopefully increase from 3750 to 4000?

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Even if I don’t get ITA till I loose points, I'll be content if draws occur consistently without anymore seeming tinkering, then perhaps we might go sub 440 (435 to 439) sometime in September. You analysts keep us hopeful.

It's amazing how you've been able to arrive at these estimates, just brilliant. Working on your figures, assuming new entrants 442 above (including new pnp recipients) are 300/week, hence the following estimates on 24th July:

440 till 24th July: 1400
441 till 24th July: 1400
442 and above: 600
Total: 3400

Assuming ITA size stays thesame, safe to project conservatively a 441 or 440 cutoff on the 25th of July? But, what would the tie break date be for these 2 scenarios? Then we could start hoping for a sub 440 cut off.

Pardon my asking, has the number of entrants per week ever been as high as 300?

 

[FairOntario]

All are assumptions and hypothesis that clouds our mind and make us hope in vain. A clear example is the prediction of the last draw that most (even the trusted predictors) thought would be 440 after a 16days gap before the draw. But we got 442 despite no ielts results 2weeks in and around the draw. And from figures IRCC release there were about 1000 new entrant into the pool 5days before the draw. NO ONE SAW THIS COMING AND NO ONE CAN EXPLAIN IT EITHER.
So enough of the bold talk, people should just increase scores IF they can,then sit hope and pray.

If you read these posts, it's clearly expressed that the postulations are estimates not 'bold talks' as you've stated. Moreover, the projections have been right on previous draws, except for the last one when huge numbers of PNPs were issued and the questionable 3 week draws (when cut offs are about to fall). These situations are clearly anomalies.

So, all things being equal, the analysts on this forum have been largely on point. Furthermore, silent and vocal participants, including data consultants/immigration agents benefit from the analysis in various ways. For those who are either in a position to improve their scores or feel content with were they are, the analysis shouldn't be a problem, it can be ignored. They're not meant to give people false hopes. Data crunching and projections remain a crucial aspect of all our lives whether we like it or not.

 

[FairOntario]

Pardon my asking, has the number of entrants per week ever been as high as 300?

I'm just being conservative as much as possible. Please, feel free to debunk or amend as you deem necessary. The more debates, the more accurate our projections become.

 

[Mayur_M]

Pardon my asking, has the number of entrants per week ever been as high as 300?

It was about 290 sometime in March.

 

[harsat]

Hi Friends, In Nov. 2016 I received LMIA which was for my express entry and work permit. but unfortunately points drop to 50. Currently I am working on LMIA based work permit which is valid for another two years but LMIA assessment date was expired in May 2017. I am not sure Do I still get 50 points. If anyone been in same situation, please let me know.