Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

[Rob13]

To all my folks out there. Yesterday was a terrible disaster, and with all the comments here I want to suggest and give my personal comments.
Lets approach the whole thing politically, instead of just numbers. If CIC doesn't want the score to break 440, then why would they reach 440, finish a draw with tie-breaker? if they wanted to clear 440 alone and not drop down further, then they would have cleared off entire 440 in last draw right? So I believe that staying higher than 440 is not the real call here. However, I believe that the reason for yesterday was that may be there was not enough 441+ and with a draw the score may have dropped below 437, which I don't think CIC is ready for yet. They may want to drop the score below 440 gradually, not from 440 tie-breaker to 436 or something. This is what I predict.

About Feb draw, where it went to 456 and then dropped to 446, just because it happened once, doesn't mean it will necessarily happen again. The score may never go up to 450+ or it may go there and never come back. However lets not think it will happen for sure, just because it happened once.

From the beginning CIC knew that after May or June they will have to drop the score below 440 to reach their desired target, they were trying to hold it up until end of May. Now they cancelled a regular draw, but they cannot do this anymore. They have their target and they need to break 440 by end of June.
Canada immigration is on the spotlight in world politics now, US and UK are thinking that Canada is desperate to let anyone walk their country. Canada needs to defend it's position showing that their system is clear and it takes only who are deserving. This was the reason why there was a press release yesterday mentioning that they find many talented applicants with lower scores and there might be a change in the system to help those applicants. So with all thee factors the score will drop further and Canada will say we are gald to invite people with low score as they posses higher talents than most immigrants who move to other countries.

Rather long post, but I wanted to post it here after reading others comments and checking the pattern and analyzing the political situation. Please reply back if you think I am wrong. Let's hope all our dreams come true this year!

 

[HoldingOnToHisPromise]

Sitting at 438 and unsure when I will get an ITA, but still expectant for it.

 

[nt13]

https://www.cicnews.com/2018/06/what-will-the-future-of-express-entry-look-like-0610749.html?fb_ref=UbyWM6JHw0-Facebook&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=ShareButton&utm_campaign=GetSocial

Well, what I understand from this, is that to search the kind of profiles with required skill set to meet the future labor requirements (largely meaning - technology related, IT or ITES related) they will tweak the criteria / apply filters / change scoring systems depending on NOCs, etc. Similar to what Australia has done in last few years. This is good news for some who are young and in the new lines of work in such segments already. While not a great news for some like me who are in the mid-life stage with traditional skill sets and not on the technology side. CIC will now dig deep for their Cherry Picks in the EE pool.. May be in the next year...

Summarily, that’s one of the major reason, besides their last year target exceeding for the intakes, as to why they will not drop scores this year. And maybe from next year, it won’t just be CRS ranks that will decide if you receive the ITA or not.

If one’s country isn’t a Titanic that’s hit by an iceberg, than stop thinking of jumping off the ship, and start exploring and focusing in what we are best at, in our own place..!

Time to move on!!

Thanks and Good luck!!

 

[bimale4bipeople]

Morning all,

Did something significant happen in Canada? I'm not sure but think something happened for them to decide not to draw yesterday... I hope this is the case, but if not....

I had this feeling in the beginning of the year.... that since they DONT have yearly targets anymore (implementation of the 3 year plan) that they would play UNFAIR and withhold draws to make sure it doesn't dip under 440...

Think about it for a second.... we started with lower scores than last year...every time it was GOING to dip under 440 they "withhold" a draw and it increases the draw candidates above 440.... I have noticed this shift and is the second time this happened this year...last time it dumped back to I think 456 before coming down...

If this happens a 3rd time...I think well have our answer !

I do hope this is not the case but lest see what develops.... fingers crossed for you all !

They had come out with draws on 30 May FSTP and PNP, so as a result they would have pushed back on another draw during this week. I quoted the same theory earlier

 

[Micky345]

Sitting at 438 and unsure when I will get an ITA, but still expectant for it.

It’s quite unpredictable now as no patterns are followed for draws. However, if they go for back to back draws there are chance you may get ITA in 2-3 months. If as people are saying, they want to maintain their 440+ score then in that case finding alternative options would be sound advice.

 

[Ronja5200]

They had come out with draws on 30 May FSTP and PNP, so as a result they would have pushed back on another draw during this week. I quoted the same theory earlier

You're right, maybe in CIC's eyes, this is just protocol, 2 weeks between each draw. I mean, they DID have a draw on the 30th, just not the one we wanted.

 

[HoldingOnToHisPromise]

It’s quite unpredictable now as no patterns are followed for draws. However, if they go for back to back draws there are chance you may get ITA in 2-3 months. If as people are saying, they want to maintain their 440+ score then in that case finding alternative options would be sound advice.

Hi! Thanks for your reply. I think I have exhausted the highest possible and achievable scores on IELTS based on my capability to use English. Lol. I have to get 9 on all four exams to earn an additional 2-3points. I think I'll just have to wait for, like you said, 2-3months and see if I can get an ITA. If not, then I'll probably consider PNP then.

 

[Sree1982]

To all my folks out there. Yesterday was a terrible disaster, and with all the comments here I want to suggest and give my personal comments.
Lets approach the whole thing politically, instead of just numbers. If CIC doesn't want the score to break 440, then why would they reach 440, finish a draw with tie-breaker? if they wanted to clear 440 alone and not drop down further, then they would have cleared off entire 440 in last draw right? So I believe that staying higher than 440 is not the real call here. However, I believe that the reason for yesterday was that may be there was not enough 441+ and with a draw the score may have dropped below 437, which I don't think CIC is ready for yet. They may want to drop the score below 440 gradually, not from 440 tie-breaker to 436 or something. This is what I predict.

About Feb draw, where it went to 456 and then dropped to 446, just because it happened once, doesn't mean it will necessarily happen again. The score may never go up to 450+ or it may go there and never come back. However lets not think it will happen for sure, just because it happened once.

From the beginning CIC knew that after May or June they will have to drop the score below 440 to reach their desired target, they were trying to hold it up until end of May. Now they cancelled a regular draw, but they cannot do this anymore. They have their target and they need to break 440 by end of June.
Canada immigration is on the spotlight in world politics now, US and UK are thinking that Canada is desperate to let anyone walk their country. Canada needs to defend it's position showing that their system is clear and it takes only who are deserving. This was the reason why there was a press release yesterday mentioning that they find many talented applicants with lower scores and there might be a change in the system to help those applicants. So with all thee factors the score will drop further and Canada will say we are gald to invite people with low score as they posses higher talents than most immigrants who move to other countries.

Rather long post, but I wanted to post it here after reading others comments and checking the pattern and analyzing the political situation. Please reply back if you think I am wrong. Let's hope all our dreams come true this year!

Exactly what i wanted to convey...Let us not press the panic button yet..Atleast let us wait for the next draw..or a couple..let us not create a pattern to make this thread look like a ray of hopeless people..

 

[bimale4bipeople]

You're right, maybe in CIC's eyes, this is just protocol, 2 weeks between each draw. I mean, they DID have a draw on the 30th, just not the one we wanted.

That is true, and most importantly that brought up the scores of 700 people to the pool which this ROH group did not wanted either

 

[Ronja5200]

That is true, and most importantly that brought up the scores of 700 people to the pool which this ROH group did not wanted either

Yeah, it'll be really interesting what the score is gonna be on Wednesday. Two factors are pointing towards it being lower than what we had on the 14th of March (456). 1) Increaed ITA's 3500 instead of 3000 2) A draw that took out 700 people from the pool in between. Perhaps it won't be as high as we suspect.

 

[Mayur_M]

I know we all are disappointed, but there is no set pattern/ rule for draws. We all thought it would happen (except for few) but it did not.

Lets now hope that next draw does not come with a very high crs, which would take 2-3 draws to come to current levels.

Keep the hope alive.

 

[HoldingOnToHisPromise]

Same here 438. I don’t think CIC has any points like 440 they don’t want to go under . They just have immigration targets for every year they need to reach regardless of cutoffs. The points system always changes. I do think however there will be more draws in the 2nd half of the year to fulfil 2019 targets.

Stay positive and try to improve the score if you can

I'm hoping for back to back draws soon, but we never know if it is what they have in mind as well. Let's just stay positive about it. I think our time will come soon.

 

[FMT]

Sitting at 438 and unsure when I will get an ITA, but still expectant for it.

I like that spirit. That's what we all need, not given spirit. We'll eventually get through this phase.

 

[HoldingOnToHisPromise]

I like that spirit. That's what we all need, not given spirit. We'll eventually get through this phase.

I wanna give you an "Amen" and a high five

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

I'm hoping for back to back draws soon, but we never know if it is what they have in mind as well. Let's just stay positive about it. I think our time will come soon.

This thread has kept me going the last couple of months especially at times like yesterday, when i expected so much but hopes came down crashing, i want to thank you all. We need more of the spirit that exisit here in the world.
That being the case, my take from yesterday's disappointment
1. Draws might be every 2weeks so we should not expect back to back draws
2. We should stop looking to 2017 pattern for guidiance because it has not helped in any shape or form.
3. Those who trully have the dream of canada and have a score in the 430s please try improving your score because if you don't people with high scores will enter the pool and you might not get ITA irrespective of how long you have being in the pool.
Lastly stay strong, Be positive and try get something else to disTract from this sometimes painful journey. Jimmysuperfly out....drops the mic