Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[tjsecondtry]

Nice rant though. Allows to vent out the frustration and pent up feelings.
Keeps the brain functional.
Keep going towards your goals.
Only if you move , you will achieve them.
All the best.

Thanks. You are right, once I get it out, I can let it go and move forward.

 

[tjsecondtry]

Thank you. The oldtimer's route is longer, but nothing is impossible.

 

[Fishal2017]

Thank you. The oldtimer's route is longer, but nothing is impossible.

As far as I have followed your answers , you seem to be quiet a determined soul.
And now this step of shifting base to Toronto proves the same.
All the best for your future endeavours.

 

[iman_snake]

Hi all,
I've got my ITA in the recent draw. I have one question. My wife has three years of work experience in my home country (now we are living in Canada), CIC requested us to provide Employment Records! But it is hard for us to get those records now and CIC does not grant any points for them. Can I skip them?

 

[rashidali90]

Question - I got my WES report and for my masters it says, "Canadian Equivalency: Two years of post-secondary study at a non-recognized institution."
In this case will my masters degree be considered for CRS points calculation?

 

[jessekay]

Question - I got my WES report and for my masters it says, "Canadian Equivalency: Two years of post-secondary study at a non-recognized institution."
In this case will my masters degree be considered for CRS points calculation?

You can enter details for your master's degree while submitting your profile. But unfortunately, CiC will not give any points for education not recognised by WES.

I am going through same circumstances, and lost 22 points to non recognition criteria.

 

[Yurken]

Hello Experts,

Can you help me with this scenario.. perhaps, it must have answered in a different thread, couldn't find it. So, I'm posting my question here.

Couple of time I traveled to Australia on Business Visa and together I spent around 170 days in Australia, do I need to still get PCC from this country?

Please can you help me with this, if required, I want to start the process quickly.

Yes. If you stayed more than 6 Months. You can apply online for Australia. You will receive the certificate in 15 days

 

[jessekay]

Rayhopians
Here is a query.
I have one year of job experience and three years of self employment.
My working hours total it to near five years.
However ,the job and self employment is not associated with education.( as education is not recognised by WES)
A leading immi agency told ,self employment could be in any field regardless of education.

Is that true?

 

[PakiAccountant]

Hi all,

I need your help.

I have received email today that I need to submit passport to Visa Office within 30 days along with two photographs. Please see below wording from email.

"Your application for permanent residence in Canada has reached the final stage of processing. You must submit your passport(s) within 30 days of the date of this letter in order to finalize your application.

Please include a copy of this letter with your submission. "

However, there are few things which I am not sure about.

• We have received email but there is no message in CIC account and status has not changed yet. Background status is still IP2. Application Status is " We are processing your application. We will.....". Final Decision section: "Your application is in progress..." Is this something normal?

• We have received email but there is no letter attached in the email e.g. CoPR letter. I thought CoPR is a letter that we need to take carry with us at the time of entry? I am not sure if this email serves as CoPR or we will get a separate CoPR letter after we send passports.
• I am from Pakistan and as per my knowledge, Biometrics are required for all the Canadian Visas. I thought I would get a letter and would need to give Biometrics before getting CoPR but there is no mention of Biometrics in the email I have received. Has someone seen such scenario? Will we need to give Biometrics later or these are only required for Temporary Visa, not PR?
• I live in Caribbean and there is no Canadian Embassy or VAC in the Country I live in. I will have to send the Passports and photographs to Canada High Commission in Jamaica by Courier. Do you know if there are any additional documents that we need to send (e.g. prepaid return envelope etc) while sending passports.

I will appreciate if someone can respond to above queries.

Thanks in advance for your help.


Regards,

 

[rashidali90]

You can enter details for your master's degree while submitting your profile. But unfortunately, CiC will not give any points for education not recognised by WES.

I am going through same circumstances, and lost 22 points to non recognition criteria.

Thank you for your input, I am stuck at 435 without my masters.

 

[shersingh]

Here is some more numbers analysis:
1. What quota goes under EE
a - all FSW, CEC, FST programs - target for 2018 is 74900 immigrants
b - some PNP (data from 2016 were showing less than 25% of all PNP went through EE) - assumption - 30% of 55000 = 16500 immigrants
Total - 91400 immigrants
2. Average family size (how many immigrants are under 1 application.)
Data from 2016 were showing app. 1.91 immigrant per application
3. Number of successful applications needed to fullfill this quota - 91400 / 1.91 = 47853 - can be rounded to 48000
Would each single ITA result into approved application, they would only need to issue 48K ITA for 2018. However because of certain failure rate on ITA, they need to issue more and they needed to calculate how many more
4. Rejected applications
Medical inadmissibility, criminal inadmissibility, wrong calculated CRS, misinterpretation - this is rather low only app. 3% (as seen from 2016). Possible improvements from applicant side (rather low)
48000 * 1.03 = 49440 ITA
5. Application cancellation (data not given and it can be only very loosly estimated from data of 2015 and 2016) - it might be anywhere between 10 and 15% but in a longer time period it will tend to be closer to 10% - for this calculation I am took 12%
49440 * 1.12 = 55373 ITA
This will be total amount of applications. This is where Canada makes money from - each application has application fees. So Canada does not really care about the rejection rate, while applicants do care.
6. Declined or expired ITA (technically the same thing, but they will know about first ones sooner than about the latter ones).
This is actually the most bulky part. Again the exact data are not given directly, but some could be calculated from 2016 data.
It can be safely assumed anywhere between 20 to 25%.
55373 * 1.25 = 69216 ITA
This is all they need, and those 13843 ITA is waste of time for them (they will not make money here). So Canada will try to push applicants to have all the correct data and not to decline their ITA. (by accepting PCC after application is submitted; by requesting ECA and language test to be done in advance; by setting the draw rule in order to promp candidates to have their correct data as soon as possible....)
7. ITA reality from 2017
84273
Part of these ITA were intended for landings in 2017 and part in 2018.
By now the difference should be pretty visible - 15 000 ITA over the limit and December is not finished yet. That where my overheating theory comes from.
8. And for curiosity 2019 quota is app. 9.5% higher than 2018 quota, which would give app. 76k ITA (if the failure rate at each stage would remain unchanged).
9. Last but not least - identifying average amount of ITA per draw.
Would you use concept of 25 normal ITA (special one for certain type of applicants are outside this patter) - and that seemed to be a favourite pattern in 2015 and 2016
69216 / 25 = 2768 ITA
If this number looks familiar, it is because it is very close to current 2750 ITA every 2 weeks. But with this concept you can practically forget about ITA in lower 400 to 430. (you can see that 430+ trend whenever such draw is made every 2 weeks).

So what happened earlier this year that some applicants with lower score (425 and less) got ITA on an expense of current delayed waiting in the 435+ group.

You can call it pessimism or negativity, but I call it a normal analysis coming from the known data.

Now you can show me your datas that are pointing to ITA for somebody with CRS 410 or even less.

This is very good analysis, albeit, heartbreaking for some. I kind of agree that CIC has enough data and knowledge from previous years that I don't see them doing bulk draws in early 2018 and kind of send equal invites throughout the year. With this number, CRS cutoff will probably stay between 435-440.

 

[muhammadrafay]

Subscribing

 

[vensak]

This is very good analysis, albeit, heartbreaking for some. I kind of agree that CIC has enough data and knowledge from previous years that I don't see them doing bulk draws in early 2018 and kind of send equal invites throughout the year. With this number, CRS cutoff will probably stay between 435-440.

I would say it is better to know what they are running against. Because in most of the cases they can decide what they want to do (improve English, learn French, go to study in Canada, go for PNP...).
Truth is, that because there are more potential immigrants, than their quota not everybody will be able to come to Canada and there will be people who will not make it. So those who want to get in have to compete against others.

I am also not saying that draws cannot reach lower CRS, however with current data it is rather improbable.

 

[sandy.y]

Here is some more numbers analysis:
1. What quota goes under EE
a - all FSW, CEC, FST programs - target for 2018 is 74900 immigrants
b - some PNP (data from 2016 were showing less than 25% of all PNP went through EE) - assumption - 30% of 55000 = 16500 immigrants
Total - 91400 immigrants
2. Average family size (how many immigrants are under 1 application.)
Data from 2016 were showing app. 1.91 immigrant per application
3. Number of successful applications needed to fullfill this quota - 91400 / 1.91 = 47853 - can be rounded to 48000
Would each single ITA result into approved application, they would only need to issue 48K ITA for 2018. However because of certain failure rate on ITA, they need to issue more and they needed to calculate how many more
4. Rejected applications
Medical inadmissibility, criminal inadmissibility, wrong calculated CRS, misinterpretation - this is rather low only app. 3% (as seen from 2016). Possible improvements from applicant side (rather low)
48000 * 1.03 = 49440 ITA
5. Application cancellation (data not given and it can be only very loosly estimated from data of 2015 and 2016) - it might be anywhere between 10 and 15% but in a longer time period it will tend to be closer to 10% - for this calculation I am took 12%
49440 * 1.12 = 55373 ITA
This will be total amount of applications. This is where Canada makes money from - each application has application fees. So Canada does not really care about the rejection rate, while applicants do care.
6. Declined or expired ITA (technically the same thing, but they will know about first ones sooner than about the latter ones).
This is actually the most bulky part. Again the exact data are not given directly, but some could be calculated from 2016 data.
It can be safely assumed anywhere between 20 to 25%.
55373 * 1.25 = 69216 ITA
This is all they need, and those 13843 ITA is waste of time for them (they will not make money here). So Canada will try to push applicants to have all the correct data and not to decline their ITA. (by accepting PCC after application is submitted; by requesting ECA and language test to be done in advance; by setting the draw rule in order to promp candidates to have their correct data as soon as possible....)
7. ITA reality from 2017
84273
Part of these ITA were intended for landings in 2017 and part in 2018.
By now the difference should be pretty visible - 15 000 ITA over the limit and December is not finished yet. That where my overheating theory comes from.
8. And for curiosity 2019 quota is app. 9.5% higher than 2018 quota, which would give app. 76k ITA (if the failure rate at each stage would remain unchanged).
9. Last but not least - identifying average amount of ITA per draw.
Would you use concept of 25 normal ITA (special one for certain type of applicants are outside this patter) - and that seemed to be a favourite pattern in 2015 and 2016
69216 / 25 = 2768 ITA
If this number looks familiar, it is because it is very close to current 2750 ITA every 2 weeks. But with this concept you can practically forget about ITA in lower 400 to 430. (you can see that 430+ trend whenever such draw is made every 2 weeks).

So what happened earlier this year that some applicants with lower score (425 and less) got ITA on an expense of current delayed waiting in the 435+ group.

You can call it pessimism or negativity, but I call it a normal analysis coming from the known data.

Now you can show me your datas that are pointing to ITA for somebody with CRS 410 or even less.

If we take a look at annual immigration reports of last few years, it is quite clear that they pretty much hit their target number of immigrants particularly for skilled worker category. It is highly unlikely that system is "overheated" given that they have precise data and tools to manage flow of immigrants. For argument sake, even if they have issued more number of invitations then required, they can slow down processing of applications which is clearly not the case. Analysis you have done looks good but there is just not enough data to justify all the assumptions. I think what we can be sure of is that they will be very close to their target numbers.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2014.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2015.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2016.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2017.html

 

[vensak]

If we take a look at annual immigration reports of last few years, it is quite clear that they pretty much hit their target number of immigrants particularly for skilled worker category. It is highly unlikely that system is "overheated" given that they have precise data and tools to manage flow of immigrants. For argument sake, even if they have issued more number of invitations then required, they can slow down processing of applications which is clearly not the case. Analysis you have done looks good but there is just not enough data to justify all the assumptions. I think what we can be sure of is that they will be very close to their target numbers.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2014.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2015.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2016.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2017.html

With the multiyear plan and with the min and max targets and with some delays (see the PPR not received after 6 months thread) they are able to stretch some applications approvals in order not to exceed the quota. Lowered amount of ITA and more gaps in between without any specific reasons (most of the gaps in late 2016 and first half of 2017 were result of system changes in CRS points).
And that is happening right now.