Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[jessekay]

Hello members,

My friend applied under the CEC and she has passed her medicals. AOR November.The summary states the following:

Application status : We are processing your application. We will send you a message when there is an update or if we need more information from you.
Review of eligibility We are reviewing whether you meet the eligibility requirements.
Review of medical results You passed the medical exam.
Review of additional documents The additional documents you provided are being reviewed.
Interview You do not need an interview. We will send you a message if this changes.
Biometrics We do not need your fingerprints. We will send you a message if this changes.
Background check We are processing your background check. We will send you a message if we need more information.
Final decision Your application is in progress. We will send you a message once the final decision has been made.

Can you tell which stage of the application processing she is under now?

Thank you in advance!

Final decision.
Next update would be either ppr r or rejected

 

[PakiAccountant]

Hello members,

My friend applied under the CEC and she has passed her medicals. AOR November.The summary states the following:

Application status : We are processing your application. We will send you a message when there is an update or if we need more information from you.
Review of eligibility We are reviewing whether you meet the eligibility requirements.
Review of medical results You passed the medical exam.
Review of additional documents The additional documents you provided are being reviewed.
Interview You do not need an interview. We will send you a message if this changes.
Biometrics We do not need your fingerprints. We will send you a message if this changes.
Background check We are processing your background check. We will send you a message if we need more information.
Final decision Your application is in progress. We will send you a message once the final decision has been made.

Can you tell which stage of the application processing she is under now?

Thank you in advance!

IP2. Next stage will be PRR. Keep checking your email that you provided in the application. They sent PRR to us by email and did not send msg/notification in CIC account.

Good Luck!

 

[testtrav2]

Final decision.
Next update would be either ppr r or rejected

watch your email. there are many people getting invite for telephone landing (if resident inside canada). PPR wont come if you are invited and accept it

 

[hema93]

Final decision.
Next update would be either ppr r or rejected

Thank you!

 

[hema93]

IP2. Next stage will be PRR. Keep checking your email that you provided in the application. They sent PRR to us by email and did not send msg/notification in CIC account.

Good Luck!

Sure, thank you very much.

 

[hema93]

watch your email. there are many people getting invite for telephone landing (if resident inside canada). PPR wont come if you are invited and accept it

Thank you very much!

 

[vensak]

You may be correct in some points but I will disagree on some. In EE yr end report 2016 it is clearly mentioned that IRCC can reduce the number of ITAs to maintain their quality standards and processing time. And as they have given huge number of ITAs in first half which made some backlog so they had to reduce the number of ITAs.

With quota more or less same in 2018 and with rounded of number of ITAs I think in 2018 IRCC will again push the score down and will issue ITAs in 3500-3750 max and 3000 min which will eventually lead to score going down

Ok more data:

ITA issued every month

December 2750
November 5545
October 5558
September 5643
August 9290
July 3202
June 3409
May 11903
April 11341
March 7633
February 10763
January 6236

Or 51 285 first 6 months and 31 988 next 6 month (Which will be most likely somewhere around 35k by the end of this year)

The disproportion is rather visible. In first half of the year the average monthly amount of ITA was 8547 while in the second half of the year it was ( or more like will be by the end of the year) only app. 5833 ITA.
That is 46% more ITA in first half of the year than in second half of the year.
But as most of the overheating happened from March to May and caught some people not ready, I am assuming, that the biggest amount of applications was received in June / July. So they had a bit space releasing people close to the end of this year, so that they end up in 2018 quota.
But again that would indicate, that next year they will not go for the increased invitations any time soon again (there is only 3% difference between 2017 and 2018 total quota).

In 2015 and in 2016 they have only issued app. 31K ITA per year, yet they managed to fulfill their quota. Yes they did have old applications in 2015, but less in 2016.

 

[hema93]

IP2. Next stage will be PRR. Keep checking your email that you provided in the application. They sent PRR to us by email and did not send msg/notification in CIC account.

Good Luck!

May I know how many days does it take for the PPR from this current IP2 stage? Thank you!

 

[andieangel]

Here is some more numbers analysis:
1. What quota goes under EE
a - all FSW, CEC, FST programs - target for 2018 is 74900 immigrants
b - some PNP (data from 2016 were showing less than 25% of all PNP went through EE) - assumption - 30% of 55000 = 16500 immigrants
Total - 91400 immigrants
2. Average family size (how many immigrants are under 1 application.)
Data from 2016 were showing app. 1.91 immigrant per application
3. Number of successful applications needed to fullfill this quota - 91400 / 1.91 = 47853 - can be rounded to 48000
Would each single ITA result into approved application, they would only need to issue 48K ITA for 2018. However because of certain failure rate on ITA, they need to issue more and they needed to calculate how many more
4. Rejected applications
Medical inadmissibility, criminal inadmissibility, wrong calculated CRS, misinterpretation - this is rather low only app. 3% (as seen from 2016). Possible improvements from applicant side (rather low)
48000 * 1.03 = 49440 ITA
5. Application cancellation (data not given and it can be only very loosly estimated from data of 2015 and 2016) - it might be anywhere between 10 and 15% but in a longer time period it will tend to be closer to 10% - for this calculation I am took 12%
49440 * 1.12 = 55373 ITA
This will be total amount of applications. This is where Canada makes money from - each application has application fees. So Canada does not really care about the rejection rate, while applicants do care.
6. Declined or expired ITA (technically the same thing, but they will know about first ones sooner than about the latter ones).
This is actually the most bulky part. Again the exact data are not given directly, but some could be calculated from 2016 data.
It can be safely assumed anywhere between 20 to 25%.
55373 * 1.25 = 69216 ITA
This is all they need, and those 13843 ITA is waste of time for them (they will not make money here). So Canada will try to push applicants to have all the correct data and not to decline their ITA. (by accepting PCC after application is submitted; by requesting ECA and language test to be done in advance; by setting the draw rule in order to promp candidates to have their correct data as soon as possible....)
7. ITA reality from 2017
84273
Part of these ITA were intended for landings in 2017 and part in 2018.
By now the difference should be pretty visible - 15 000 ITA over the limit and December is not finished yet. That where my overheating theory comes from.
8. And for curiosity 2019 quota is app. 9.5% higher than 2018 quota, which would give app. 76k ITA (if the failure rate at each stage would remain unchanged).
9. Last but not least - identifying average amount of ITA per draw.
Would you use concept of 25 normal ITA (special one for certain type of applicants are outside this patter) - and that seemed to be a favourite pattern in 2015 and 2016
69216 / 25 = 2768 ITA
If this number looks familiar, it is because it is very close to current 2750 ITA every 2 weeks. But with this concept you can practically forget about ITA in lower 400 to 430. (you can see that 430+ trend whenever such draw is made every 2 weeks).

So what happened earlier this year that some applicants with lower score (425 and less) got ITA on an expense of current delayed waiting in the 435+ group.

You can call it pessimism or negativity, but I call it a normal analysis coming from the known data.

Now you can show me your datas that are pointing to ITA for somebody with CRS 410 or even less.

I gave you “like” because of all the data and analysis that you did, but man do you try hard to prove that we who stand below 420 don’t stand a chance, even I see a brighter future than you display here and I’m pessimist by nature.

Chill man, have a drink, relax, enjoy life, take a pause for a second and try to be supportive, you don’t know what’s gonna happen tomorrow, nobody knows!

All I can say is that your analysis is solid for now, but let’s wait and see in a month what’s the situation and I have a hunch it’s going to be much better than you think.

 

[andieangel]

He was the same person in 2016 who kept on saying that scores will never fall below 450.

Than I’m glad that he’s here again to be proven wrong, again!

 

[benzboksas]

Ok more data:

ITA issued every month

December 2750
November 5545
October 5558
September 5643
August 9290
July 3202
June 3409
May 11903
April 11341
March 7633
February 10763
January 6236

Or 51 285 first 6 months and 31 988 next 6 month (Which will be most likely somewhere around 35k by the end of this year)

The disproportion is rather visible. In first half of the year the average monthly amount of ITA was 8547 while in the second half of the year it was ( or more like will be by the end of the year) only app. 5833 ITA.
That is 46% more ITA in first half of the year than in second half of the year.
But as most of the overheating happened from March to May and caught some people not ready, I am assuming, that the biggest amount of applications was received in June / July. So they had a bit space releasing people close to the end of this year, so that they end up in 2018 quota.
But again that would indicate, that next year they will not go for the increased invitations any time soon again (there is only 3% difference between 2017 and 2018 total quota).

In 2015 and in 2016 they have only issued app. 31K ITA per year, yet they managed to fulfill their quota. Yes they did have old applications in 2015, but less in 2016.

What I've been reading throughout the second part of this year is the following. At first I heard that "Oh, after the summer vacations the CIC staff will be back and the points will drop to their lowest", then "Oh, wait until the school season starts and prepare to party", then later "Oh, after the new targets are announced we will celebrate for sure", and now again "Wait for Santa and you'll see".

I'm sitting at 431 and still hoping and hoping... but also learning French. Does anybody think that it is easy to learn a fourth language when you still have to maintain the other three at an advanced level for professional reasons? But my first two languages are no good for Canada and I've already maxed out points on English. Or does it motivate me that there will probably be no useful application of French whatsoever? And still I have to learn it for a few more points. Imagine now how motivating is to keep on this task while constantly reading hundreds of "good" posts about the imminent drop of points.
Thanks God I didn't listen to that and many thanks to guys like Vensak. I image it's not easy for them to post here amid all these ad hominem attacks and slurs. But they do... Even if they're wrong I will have at least learned yet another language. But if they're right, I will definitely go to Canada one day...

So, here is my advice for fellow members of this forum: please don't rely on unicorns, do whatever you can to increase points and don't waste a single day.

 

[benzboksas]

One more advice... Please be diligent enough with your application.
I once had the ITA in my hands...

 

[endeey04]

At the end of the day, everything said here are all nothing more than calculated ASSUMPTIONS. Truth is, only God and CIC themselves know the plans. i once said, if you have a way to increase your points, please do. but at the same time a little hope never killed anyone. i'm pretty sure nobody expected cutoff was gonna go as low as 413 this year, but it did, mistake or not.....it did.

 

[andieangel]

What I've been reading throughout the second part of this year is the following. At first I heard that "Oh, after the summer vacations the CIC staff will be back and the points will drop to their lowest", then "Oh, wait until the school season starts and prepare to party", then later "Oh, after the new targets are announced we will celebrate for sure", and now again "Wait for Santa and you'll see".

I'm sitting at 431 and still hoping and hoping... but also learning French. Does anybody think that it is easy to learn a fourth language when you still have to maintain the other three at an advanced level for professional reasons? But my first two languages are no good for Canada and I've already maxed out points on English. Or does it motivate me that there will probably be no useful application of French whatsoever? And still I have to learn it for a few more points. Imagine now how motivating is to keep on this task while constantly reading hundreds of "good" posts about the imminent drop of points.
Thanks God I didn't listen to that and many thanks to guys like Vensak. I image it's not easy for them to post here amid all these ad hominem attacks and slurs. But they do... Even if they're wrong I will have at least learned yet another language. But if they're right, I will definitely go to Canada one day...

So, here is my advice for fellow members of this forum: please don't rely on unicorns, do whatever you can to increase points and don't waste a single day.

Then you’re not long in the pool! Where have you been six months ago when scores were well below 430? Why are you spitting on other people’s opinions when they are spreading hope? What’s wrong with believing that everything will fall to its place one day? Are we insulting you with our good intentions and unicorns?

 

[sinou39]

Ok more data:

ITA issued every month

December 2750
November 5545
October 5558
September 5643
August 9290
July 3202
June 3409
May 11903
April 11341
March 7633
February 10763
January 6236

Or 51 285 first 6 months and 31 988 next 6 month (Which will be most likely somewhere around 35k by the end of this year)

The disproportion is rather visible. In first half of the year the average monthly amount of ITA was 8547 while in the second half of the year it was ( or more like will be by the end of the year) only app. 5833 ITA.
That is 46% more ITA in first half of the year than in second half of the year.
But as most of the overheating happened from March to May and caught some people not ready, I am assuming, that the biggest amount of applications was received in June / July. So they had a bit space releasing people close to the end of this year, so that they end up in 2018 quota.
But again that would indicate, that next year they will not go for the increased invitations any time soon again (there is only 3% difference between 2017 and 2018 total quota).

In 2015 and in 2016 they have only issued app. 31K ITA per year, yet they managed to fulfill their quota. Yes they did have old applications in 2015, but less in 2016.

Go home buddy. This thread is for people waiting on ITA. What are you doing here anyway?