Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[Samroze]

Not really, You do not take into consideration amount of ITA issued during this year already. It seems that they were too generous in first half of the year (especially March to May). But once they got most recent data about the total futile ITA (expired, declined and application rejected), they had to correct for the second half of the year.

With better data from this year (where all of the old paper based applications were delivered), they will be able to adjust ITA more properly and evenly. However with that said, it is very improbable to see such low CRS as from the first half of this year any time soon (like next 2-3 years). Of course unless there is some other significant change done in the system (bigger immigration quota - highly improbable, smaller sized families - rather improbable, change in the CRS points rule - difficult to predict but such changes tend to push score rather up than down, amount of people in EE decreasing - highly improbable).

Only time will show.
Let's wait and watch.
Btw you are the only one with this thinking I guess. I've read everywhere about the positive trendz coming forward in 2018.
But we need people like you to keep us grounded.
Thanks and I wish all your thoughts to be proved wrong as soon as possible

 

[vensak]

And mr @vensak is here ladies and gentlemen! How we missed you! How is Canada treating you? With that personality you have no problem with having a lot of quiet and alone time sharing with us your wisdom and “hope” since this is the Ray of hope thread.

I don’t know about you guys but I’m truly honest when I say that I’m sorry that world hurt you so much that you became this negative person and I hope future brings brighter things for you. We all fight our own battles, but we are supporting each other here, try it next time.

I am a realist. I do not think life is just rainbows and unicorns. The assumptions I am doing is based on the statistics that was released in 2016 and the released multi year immigration plan.

The whole thinking is like this.
Original plan was to reach 450k immigrants by 2020 (or even sooner). And that plan might have been a bit more passable somewhere at the end of 2016.
Then all the illegal border crossing happened (which did not help at all to promote immigration in Canada). And also recent election pools happened showing that current leading party is weakening in position.
As a result more conservative immigration plan would have to be passed (as the election year that will be in 2019 was one of the reason).

Now CIC is issuing ITA so that they can fulfill the quota for Economic immigrants (at least part of it).
Would bigger immigration increase be approved, then everything would rise more significantly. Hence the optimism in delivering ITA in the first half of 2017.
In addition their own statistics was distorted (by early 2017, they only had 2016 available, which was much smaller sample of applicants). You shall also count in the learning effect. (at the beginning, people would do more mistakes dealing with new system - wrong PCC and such; but later on as the system will be more explore and more advice could be found - like on this forum; the lower % of rejected applications is to be expected).

So as a result they managed to overheat the system (delivering more ITA than they should have). With the immigration plan now confirmed and with the statistic from first half of 2017 (which may be not visible for us yet, but they are very well visible for the officers), they could to ITA recalculation. Hence the lower nr. of ITA recently.

And against all that there is an increasing nr. of EE profiles. Despite of sheer amount of ITA delivered this year, the nr. of active EE profiles is higher than what was last year. (you can check it and compare it with their released statistics).

Another simple fact is, that the earth population is still growing (especially in the countries that make most significant amount of Canadian immigrants). So even if the % of the population willing to immigrate to Canada, would remain the same, the total nr of people will increase. So if that increase is higher than the increased yearly intake, that does result in higher competition in EE profile.

 

[Samroze]

Not really, You do not take into consideration amount of ITA issued during this year already. It seems that they were too generous in first half of the year (especially March to May). But once they got most recent data about the total futile ITA (expired, declined and application rejected), they had to correct for the second half of the year.

With better data from this year (where all of the old paper based applications were delivered), they will be able to adjust ITA more properly and evenly. However with that said, it is very improbable to see such low CRS as from the first half of this year any time soon (like next 2-3 years). Of course unless there is some other significant change done in the system (bigger immigration quota - highly improbable, smaller sized families - rather improbable, change in the CRS points rule - difficult to predict but such changes tend to push score rather up than down, amount of people in EE decreasing - highly improbable).

83,273 ITAs so far in 2017 with 28 draws
In 2018 there will be even more ITA's.
Say on an average if it's 85000 ITA's, with the same number of draws and same size throughout then the number is 3000. Hence it will definitely be above 2750. Hoping for the best

 

[Samroze]

The second half of the year 2017 saw a decline in number of ITA's as they were focussing on clearing the applications and most importantly the game changer was the rule introduced in June.
Despite all these changes cic did not stop issuing ITA's nor have the crs reached the sky.
Definitely the EE pool entrants have increased but at the same time the 2018 plan has larger quota than 2017. That increase will hopefully be balanced with increased quota.
As it is ray of hope, trying to gather every reason to stay positive.
Rest let's leave it to God.
I deeply believe in the saying...."everything happens for good"
Something better must be waiting for us

 

[Samroze]

I am a realist. I do not think life is just rainbows and unicorns. The assumptions I am doing is based on the statistics that was released in 2016 and the released multi year immigration plan.

The whole thinking is like this.
Original plan was to reach 450k immigrants by 2020 (or even sooner). And that plan might have been a bit more passable somewhere at the end of 2016.
Then all the illegal border crossing happened (which did not help at all promote immigration in Canada). And also recent election pools happened showing that current leading party is weakening in position.
As a result more conservative immigration plan would have to be passed (as the election year that will be in 2019 was one of the reason).

Now CIC is issuing ITA so that they can fulfill the quota for Economic immigrants (at least part of it).
Would bigger immigration increase be approved, then everything would rise more significantly. Hence the optimism in delivering ITA in the first half of 2017.
In addition their own statistics was distorted (by early 2017, they only had 2016 available, which was much smaller sample of applicants). You shall also count in the learning effect. (at the beginning, people would do more mistakes dealing with new system - wrong PCC and such; but later on as the system will be more explore and more advice could be found - like on this forum; the lower % of rejected applications is to be expected).

So as a result they managed to overheat the system (delivering more ITA than they should have). With the immigration plan now confirmed and with the statistic from first half of 2017 (which may be not visible for us yet, but they are very well visible for the officers), they could to ITA recalculation. Hence the lower nr. of ITA recently.

And against all that there is an increasing nr. of EE profiles. Despite of sheer amount of ITA delivered this year, the nr. of active EE profiles is higher than what was last year. (you can check it and compare it with their released statistics).

Another simple fact is, that the earth population is still growing (especially in the countries that make most significant amount of Canadian immigrants). So even if the % of the population willing to immigrate to Canada, would remain the same, the total nr of people will increase. So if that increase is higher than the increased yearly intake, that does result in higher competition in EE profile.

Some people can see only thorns while the rest of the world sees the beauty of the roses. Perception matters

 

[Samroze]

And mr @vensak is here ladies and gentlemen! How we missed you! How is Canada treating you? With that personality you have no problem with having a lot of quiet and alone time sharing with us your wisdom and “hope” since this is the Ray of hope thread.

I don’t know about you guys but I’m truly honest when I say that I’m sorry that world hurt you so much that you became this negative person and I hope future brings brighter things for you. We all fight our own battles, but we are supporting each other here, try it next time.

Oh I thought he's some other person.
No one can change his perception.
I'm wasting my time then

 

[alfred0]

We got a badass here

 

[Fhussain]

I am a realist. I do not think life is just rainbows and unicorns. The assumptions I am doing is based on the statistics that was released in 2016 and the released multi year immigration plan.

The whole thinking is like this.
Original plan was to reach 450k immigrants by 2020 (or even sooner). And that plan might have been a bit more passable somewhere at the end of 2016.
Then all the illegal border crossing happened (which did not help at all promote immigration in Canada). And also recent election pools happened showing that current leading party is weakening in position.
As a result more conservative immigration plan would have to be passed (as the election year that will be in 2019 was one of the reason).

Now CIC is issuing ITA so that they can fulfill the quota for Economic immigrants (at least part of it).
Would bigger immigration increase be approved, then everything would rise more significantly. Hence the optimism in delivering ITA in the first half of 2017.
In addition their own statistics was distorted (by early 2017, they only had 2016 available, which was much smaller sample of applicants). You shall also count in the learning effect. (at the beginning, people would do more mistakes dealing with new system - wrong PCC and such; but later on as the system will be more explore and more advice could be found - like on this forum; the lower % of rejected applications is to be expected).

So as a result they managed to overheat the system (delivering more ITA than they should have). With the immigration plan now confirmed and with the statistic from first half of 2017 (which may be not visible for us yet, but they are very well visible for the officers), they could to ITA recalculation. Hence the lower nr. of ITA recently.

And against all that there is an increasing nr. of EE profiles. Despite of sheer amount of ITA delivered this year, the nr. of active EE profiles is higher than what was last year. (you can check it and compare it with their released statistics).

Another simple fact is, that the earth population is still growing (especially in the countries that make most significant amount of Canadian immigrants). So even if the % of the population willing to immigrate to Canada, would remain the same, the total nr of people will increase. So if that increase is higher than the increased yearly intake, that does result in higher competition in EE profile.

I agree with some of your points but not all... as u said it is like a learning curve for all and now there are fewer mistakes by the applicants this also means earlier people were claiming more points due to their mistakes which has and should reduce.. moreover rejection percentage could not be 20-30% (from 3700 ITAs to 2750) and that too suddenly understood by everyone.. only 4 draws back CRS was at around 436.. if u go deep difference between CRS 452 and 432 after last draw is just a missing draw .. I mean one extra draw and CRS will be at 432.. Canada also needs immigrants on consistant basis and there is nothing called we need people with too high CRS.. CRS is just the standing of individuals in the pool.. if somebody is in the pool he is eligible for immigration so there is nothing which will stop CIC not to go at lower CRS invites... with all the readings and CIC plan 2018-2020 CRS should reach somewhere between 400-410 during 2018.. good luck to all who are waiting at lower scores...

 

[trumprefugee]

What I noticed in the US is that the IELTS slots dissapear very very fast. And almost 95% of test takers take General IELTS. It seems more and more people are realizing that the EE system are pretty easy to reach with just a good IELTS score so competition will just be higher and higher I think.

Yes, when I was trying to register for IELTS, the slots for the soonest test dates kept disappearing. I eventually got the date of my choice after a few days of frequent refreshing when someone cancelled and one spot opened up. I am far from the only Trump refugee here ...

 

[endeey04]

Like i said earlier, its simple maths, lets even assume they plan to give 90K ITA's next year (of which i think its going to be more considering increased quota), and then they agree to not go beyond 2750 ITA's per draw, to meet 90k they have to make the draws more frequent (say 3 draws per month). so either ways CRS will drop... this is being a realist so lets not try to take away people's hopes. if you can find a way to increase your scores, please do. but i believe next year will witness lower CRS cutoffs.

 

[sinou39]

Yes, when I was trying to register for IELTS, the slots for the soonest test dates kept disappearing. I eventually got the date of my choice after a few days of frequent refreshing when someone cancelled and one spot opened up. I am far from the only Trump refugee here ...

+1. I moved to Vancouver from Seattle last month. Now waiting for my ITA with CRS score 447. Fingers crossed. US immigration system is becoming increasingly hopeless.

 

[vensak]

I agree with some of your points but not all... as u said it is like a learning curve for all and now there are fewer mistakes by the applicants this also means earlier people were claiming more points due to their mistakes which has and should reduce.. moreover rejection percentage could not be 20-30% (from 3700 ITAs to 2750) and that too suddenly understood by everyone.. only 4 draws back CRS was at around 436.. if u go deep difference between CRS 452 and 432 after last draw is just a missing draw .. I mean one extra draw and CRS will be at 432.. Canada also needs immigrants on consistant basis and there is nothing called we need people with too high CRS.. CRS is just the standing of individuals in the pool.. if somebody is in the pool he is eligible for immigration so there is nothing which will stop CIC not to go at lower CRS invites... with all the readings and CIC plan 2018-2020 CRS should reach somewhere between 400-410 during 2018.. good luck to all who are waiting at lower scores...

Here is some more numbers analysis:
1. What quota goes under EE
a - all FSW, CEC, FST programs - target for 2018 is 74900 immigrants
b - some PNP (data from 2016 were showing less than 25% of all PNP went through EE) - assumption - 30% of 55000 = 16500 immigrants
Total - 91400 immigrants
2. Average family size (how many immigrants are under 1 application.)
Data from 2016 were showing app. 1.91 immigrant per application
3. Number of successful applications needed to fullfill this quota - 91400 / 1.91 = 47853 - can be rounded to 48000
Would each single ITA result into approved application, they would only need to issue 48K ITA for 2018. However because of certain failure rate on ITA, they need to issue more and they needed to calculate how many more
4. Rejected applications
Medical inadmissibility, criminal inadmissibility, wrong calculated CRS, misinterpretation - this is rather low only app. 3% (as seen from 2016). Possible improvements from applicant side (rather low)
48000 * 1.03 = 49440 ITA
5. Application cancellation (data not given and it can be only very loosly estimated from data of 2015 and 2016) - it might be anywhere between 10 and 15% but in a longer time period it will tend to be closer to 10% - for this calculation I am took 12%
49440 * 1.12 = 55373 ITA
This will be total amount of applications. This is where Canada makes money from - each application has application fees. So Canada does not really care about the rejection rate, while applicants do care.
6. Declined or expired ITA (technically the same thing, but they will know about first ones sooner than about the latter ones).
This is actually the most bulky part. Again the exact data are not given directly, but some could be calculated from 2016 data.
It can be safely assumed anywhere between 20 to 25%.
55373 * 1.25 = 69216 ITA
This is all they need, and those 13843 ITA is waste of time for them (they will not make money here). So Canada will try to push applicants to have all the correct data and not to decline their ITA. (by accepting PCC after application is submitted; by requesting ECA and language test to be done in advance; by setting the draw rule in order to promp candidates to have their correct data as soon as possible....)
7. ITA reality from 2017
84273
Part of these ITA were intended for landings in 2017 and part in 2018.
By now the difference should be pretty visible - 15 000 ITA over the limit and December is not finished yet. That where my overheating theory comes from.
8. And for curiosity 2019 quota is app. 9.5% higher than 2018 quota, which would give app. 76k ITA (if the failure rate at each stage would remain unchanged).
9. Last but not least - identifying average amount of ITA per draw.
Would you use concept of 25 normal ITA (special one for certain type of applicants are outside this patter) - and that seemed to be a favourite pattern in 2015 and 2016
69216 / 25 = 2768 ITA
If this number looks familiar, it is because it is very close to current 2750 ITA every 2 weeks. But with this concept you can practically forget about ITA in lower 400 to 430. (you can see that 430+ trend whenever such draw is made every 2 weeks).

So what happened earlier this year that some applicants with lower score (425 and less) got ITA on an expense of current delayed waiting in the 435+ group.

You can call it pessimism or negativity, but I call it a normal analysis coming from the known data.

Now you can show me your datas that are pointing to ITA for somebody with CRS 410 or even less.

 

[Fishal2017]

For the first time in a long time, I missed a Wednesday here. We've got a serious illness in the extended family and helping out. But I picked up reading the last thread where I left off to keep up with all the people I know here and to experience the first person announcing the draw like everyone did yesterday.

Now, I'm just as disappointed with the result as everybody else. But I'd like to slap all the people whining about not receiving their ITAs after 5 minutes. FFS, if you didn't take the time to read that it could take up to 24 hours, how do you expect to be able to do all your ITA paperwork correctly?

And yes, I'm on a rant here. Because most of the rest of the posts were people with CRSs a lot higher then mine being depressed. To all of you folks, I just want to say, "STFU. Get off your butts and take action to improve your score."

Because I am old, even with perfect IELTS and only 2 points short of max on education, I have only 384 points. But instead of moaning here, I'm taking the long-term, very difficult steps it will take to become eligible for OINP. I leave for school in Toronto in less than a month. I'll be spending a year apart from my husband to earn more points. We're also learning french from scratch. Getting up to CLB 7 is going to take a lot of time and work. But it will be more points.

If you want to immigrate to Canada, don't waste time and energy. Take whatever steps are necessary for you to increase your score. Cheer on all the people who are working to improve their English to improve their IELTS. Read all the past advice on getting through the process. Contribute to helping others here. These are the things that will lead to becoming Canadian.

Rant over.

Nice rant though. Allows to vent out the frustration and pent up feelings.
Keeps the brain functional.
Keep going towards your goals.
Only if you move , you will achieve them.
All the best.

 

[Fishal2017]

For the first time in a long time, I missed a Wednesday here. We've got a serious illness in the extended family and helping out. But I picked up reading the last thread where I left off to keep up with all the people I know here and to experience the first person announcing the draw like everyone did yesterday.

Now, I'm just as disappointed with the result as everybody else. But I'd like to slap all the people whining about not receiving their ITAs after 5 minutes. FFS, if you didn't take the time to read that it could take up to 24 hours, how do you expect to be able to do all your ITA paperwork correctly?

And yes, I'm on a rant here. Because most of the rest of the posts were people with CRSs a lot higher then mine being depressed. To all of you folks, I just want to say, "STFU. Get off your butts and take action to improve your score."

Because I am old, even with perfect IELTS and only 2 points short of max on education, I have only 384 points. But instead of moaning here, I'm taking the long-term, very difficult steps it will take to become eligible for OINP. I leave for school in Toronto in less than a month. I'll be spending a year apart from my husband to earn more points. We're also learning french from scratch. Getting up to CLB 7 is going to take a lot of time and work. But it will be more points.

If you want to immigrate to Canada, don't waste time and energy. Take whatever steps are necessary for you to increase your score. Cheer on all the people who are working to improve their English to improve their IELTS. Read all the past advice on getting through the process. Contribute to helping others here. These are the things that will lead to becoming Canadian.

Rant over.[/QUOTE

All the best for your Toronto stay and studies.

 

[premchandar.au]

Query1 - I am in Singapore on an employment visa for the past 3 years. I was on secondment employment contracts with partner companies. My employer in Singapore did not have a permanent establishment. I have been internally transferred to our partner/subsidiary companies twice. Recently, my company established in Singapore and currently in the process of being transferred there. Though my employment has been continuous with the same organisation but on paper i have 3 separate appointment letters. How or should I reflect this in my express entry profile. I am sure some of the IT folks working in client organisations will be able to relate to this situation.

Query2 - Is the reference letter from the employer required from all my previous employers are only from those that correspond with the NOC applied for?

Query3 - In one of my previous employment, my designation was irrelevant to the job I preformed due to a peculiar organisation structure in the company. Will this affect my application

Query4 - Does the reference letter necessarily come from the HR of the Company or reporting manager will suffice?

Appreciate guidance from the group on the above.