Ray of Hope - 75th Draw

[andieangel]

How about to check the number of ITA sent out during that time compared to the number of ITA for the same period of time in 2016. (as they have issued more ITA in first 9 months of 2017) significantly more than in whole year 2016. That alone will indicate the increasing amount of interest there.
In addition your estimation is a decent increase already from 50k to 61k is a 20% yearly increase which is not little at all.
In addition ITA is influenced:
1. The size of the yearly quota
2. The size of the average family (as the quota is speaking about nr. of immigrants but not about nr. of applications)
3. The % of not used. cancelled or rejected application. (simply said, the more prepared people are and the less mistakes they made in their application, the lower this % will).
While you know the quota in advance, the size of the families and the % of failure is only known at the end of each measured period (for example every quarter or every year). So when they are issuing ITA, they are using the % from the past in order to project the correct amount for the future. Hence if they see, that at the end of next measured period they have invited too few people they will increase the invitation (what we have seen in the first half of 2017 when they compared with 2016). But if they see that they have invited too many, they will cut down.
Eventually the % of failures tends to go down (as people will get familiar with the new system which will result in less mistakes in the applications).
So the positive effect would be the quota increase while the negative effect would be any stagnation or decrease of this quota. Same goes for the family size.

You can’t compare 2016 with 2017, because in 2016 CIC had backlog of paper based applications which they cleared during 2016, that’s why draws were smaller than in 2017, they couldn’t manage both. Numbers in 2017 will be comparable in the future. I believe we will see increase in ITAs and more frequent draws right after new qouta is announced. Even with this current qouta CRS is going down and with bigger quota CRS will dip lower pretty fast. Believe and have hope, our turn is coming. Everyone’s at their own time. Have patience.

 

[JinandMango]

Are you bored of waiting for the draw? If you are an IELTS expert with above Band 7. Please come take a look at my thread and rate my wriiting practices!

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/please-mark-and-rate-my-ielts-writing.524003/#post-6447126

 

[vensak]

You can’t compare 2016 with 2017, because in 2016 CIC had backlog of paper based applications which they cleared during 2016, that’s why draws were smaller than in 2017, they couldn’t manage both. Numbers in 2017 will be comparable in the future. I believe we will see increase in ITAs and more frequent draws right after new qouta is announced. Even with this current qouta CRS is going down and with bigger quota CRS will dip lower pretty fast. Believe and have hope, our turn is coming. Everyone’s at their own time. Have patience.

You can perfectly use the % of ITA failure (not used, cancelled or rejected) from a big enough sample (which 2016 was by all means) in order to project into 2017. That way you can calculate amount of needed ITA in order to get the desired amount of immigrants to fulfill the quota.

In fact it was you not taking into consideration the increased amount of ITA on the top of bigger EE pool. Otherwise you would see the clear indicator of an increased popularity of the EE.

There are scenarios with a different immigration amount (300k against 450k) and when projection on the economy impact was done there was no clear winner. Each of them has it weakness part.
In addition any quota increase depends strongly on the mood of Canadian citizens and their view of immigration.
Trust me, the increased amount of illegal border crossing did not really help the whole situation. (Yes, people are easily mixing up total immigration quota with the refugee immigration quota and with illegal border crossing amounts).

 

[andieangel]

You can perfectly use the % of ITA failure (not used, cancelled or rejected) from a big enough sample (which 2016 was by all means) in order to project into 2017. That way you can calculate amount of needed ITA in order to get the desired amount of immigrants to fulfill the quota.

In fact it was you not taking into consideration the increased amount of ITA on the top of bigger EE pool. Otherwise you would see the clear indicator of an increased popularity of the EE.

There are scenarios with a different immigration amount (300k against 450k) and when projection on the economy impact was done there was no clear winner. Each of them has it weakness part.
In addition any quota increase depends strongly on the mood of Canadian citizens and their view of immigration.
Trust me, the increased amount of illegal border crossing did not really help the whole situation. (Yes, people are easily mixing up total immigration quota with the refugee immigration quota and with illegal border crossing amounts).

Declining rate of ITAs is quite big. Pool is dynamic, new rules will apply each year. Everyone who is eligible has a chance. That’s all.

 

[SGtoCAD]

Are you bored of waiting for the draw? If you are an IELTS expert with above Band 7. Please come take a look at my thread and rate my wriiting practices!

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/please-mark-and-rate-my-ielts-writing.524003/#post-6447126

Lol do you work in Advertising? this sounds like an ad..

 

[muhammadrafay]

I dont think there will be 3 draws next month .. 5 Wednesdays is not a guarantee for 3 draws .. I think some odd day(any other day than Wednesday) draws are going to come .. Lets hope for the best ..

 

[JinandMango]

Lol do you work in Advertising? this sounds like an ad..

Well, it doesn't seem it worked.......
Nobody is commenting on it!

 

[The Wall]

What is the quota for the current year?.

 

[Ascent]

I have been in hibernation from quite some time but todays discussion has stimulated me to contribute my observation. I have been trying to get Canadian PR since 2014 (paper base application). Few points to consider

1. In 2015 large back log of applicant were from after the cleansing of 2009 (they cancell all application pre 2009) And it was back in the days when PR use to take 2 - 3 years. So CRS CUT-OFF never went below 450 infact it only touched 450 once.

2. Then came 2016 and it bring along all the changes with it and crs took upword flight and reached 497 and never came below 450 in first quarter. In mid 2016 the number ITA decrease to 500 only per draw and cut off again took upword trend.

3. But from November 2016 onword ITA started increasing and CRS started decreaing untill it touched 413 once and 415 twice before the mid year ITA drought.

4. In between all these events OINP send invitation to ICT skilled persons way below 400 mark. To be precise 320 CRS.

5. Very importantly it has been said on this very forum time and again that actual eligibilty is measured beyond this elusive CRS. And the benchmark is 67/100 point system.

I am a firm believer that CRS will drop beyond 400 sooner or later.

 

[Jalolo]

I just lost the last ITA by 1 point so...

I can totally second your thought on this but honestly sucha hassel retaking the test...hhmmm what shall i do ...plz tell me mera no bhe a jai gaa

 

[shersingh]

I can totally second your thought on this but honestly sucha hassel retaking the test...hhmmm what shall i do ...plz tell me mera no bhe a jai gaa

How much would ur score change if u get higher in IELTS? If you could gain 3-4 more points, i would say go for it - the difference might translate to 3-4 months less wait.

 

[vpn236]

What are the documents required for a PNP (Ontario) . I just want to be prepared if they ever open it back up. My NOC is 2173.
I'm getting tired of waiting at 428.

 

[skysthelimit]

If we are to expect back to back draws on November 1st and 8th with highter number of ITAs, then it is only a matter of three weeks till the 420s and 430s get ITAs. Feeling hopeful and positive at 431.

 

[SGtoCAD]

Well, it doesn't seem it worked.......
Nobody is commenting on it!

Sorry Buddy!

 

[gotodxb]

there is slight chance for a draw this Wednesday..