Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[xibalban]

Had some spare time to check the possibilities to get direct ITA for applicant having CRS near 400, going pessimistic for calculations.

Experts please have a look into the calculation and please point out anything is missed or wrongly considered.

Calculation is based on following assumptions,
1. Frequency of draw : Bi-weekly
2. Draw size : 3300 ITAs
3. Average no. of applicant inflow per day : 150



Gap (in no. of Days) between 65 & 66 draw : 26 days
CRS Range 26-May 22-Jun Newly Added
1. 601 1200 143 355 212
2. 451 600 656 2216 1560
3. 401 450 6717 9463 2746
4. 441 450 226 809 583
5. 431 440 295 1082 787
6. 421 430 206 1172 966
7. 411 420 1878 1968 90
8. 401 410 4112 4432 320

A Total applicant above 400 till 22 June (1+2+3) :12034
B Newly Added Applicants above 400 in 26 Days (1+2+3) : 4518
C Newly Added Applicants above 400 per Day (B/26 Days) between draw 65 & 66 : 174
C'' Newly Added Applicants above 400 per Day considered for future draws : 150
C' Tentative no. of applicants on 28th June (A+(7*C)) : 13250
D Applicant above CRS 400 in poll on 29 July (C'-3409) : 9841

Draw 67 on 5th July
E Total applicant above 400 till 5 July (D+(14xC'')) : 11941
F Considering draw size of 3300 on 5th June, remaining candidate above 400 (E-3300) : 8641

Draw 68 on 19th July
G Total applicant above 400 till 19 July (F+(14xC")) : 10741
H Considering draw size of 3300 on 19th July, remaining candidate above 400 (G-3300) : 7241

Draw 69 on 2nd August
I Total applicant above 400 till 2nd August (H+(14xC")) : 9341
J Considering draw size of 3300 on 2nd August, remaining candidate above 400 (I-3300) : 5841

Draw 70 on 16th August
K Total applicant above 400 till 16th August (J+(14xC")) : 7941
L Considering draw size of 3300 on 16th August, remaining candidate above 400 (K-3300) : 4441

Draw 71 on 30th August
M Total applicant above 400 till 30th August (L+(14xC")) : 6541
N Considering draw size of 3300 on 30th August, remaining candidate above 400 (M-3300) : 3041

Draw 72 on 13th September
O Total applicant above 400 till 13th Sept (N+(14xC'')) : 5141
P Considering draw size of 3300 on 13th Sept, remaining candidate above 400 (O-3300) : 1641

Draw 73 on 27th September
Q Total applicant above 400 till 27th September (P+(14xC'')) : 3741
R Considering draw size of 3300 on 27th September, remaining candidate above 400 (Q-3300) : 241

Draw 74 on 4th October-Cutoff going below CRS 400
S Total applicant above 400 till 27th September (R+(14xC'')) : 2341
T Considering draw size of 3300 on 27th September, remaining candidate above 400 (S-3300): -1159

While I appreciate the effort, I must point out a basic flaw in your calculations, a few example corrections are as under:

CRS Range 26-May 22-Jun Newly Added
1. 601 1200 143 355 355 (because 143 was reset to zero on 31st May, due to the draw)
2. 451 600 656 2216 2216 (because 656 was reset to zero on 31st May, due to the draw)

Nice effort, nonetheless.

 

[raj2017]

Yes i have decided to re-appear in IELTS again. It is not just about spending 1500 CAD and hassle of arranging additional work relevant documents. For me it is also about self confidence. I know i am very well capable of CLB 9 if not 10. If i be perfectly honest, i haven't put much effort for my previous tests at all. Hence i do not want to live with the thought that i never tried to achieve the score and did away with the easy option. I want to make myself commit cos life ain't gonna be a piece of cake when we get to Canada. Call it my ego i don't blame you. Maybe if i do not achieve score again, i can then happily accept the OINP knowing at least, yes i tried my best. Maybe by then HCP quota will be filled but this something i have to do it. I hope you get my concern.

amazing zest man heads off, even deep down in my heart even i know that i haven't pull out best of my in terms of ILETS preparation, more specifically i was bored preparing for ILETS, however now i will not let my boredom take away my destination and my dream, i will definitely appear again, the good and positive side is i was short by .5 only so i know where it pinches, and on top of that i don't have NOI like u ppl especially having said so i will have to study hard and appear in ILETS with best of myself and preparation thanks truly appreciate for awakening giant inside me

 

[nivid12]

Just withdraw your existing profile and create a new one. Then you will get the NOI in a week at max.

BUT CONSIDER THIS BEFORE APPLYING TO OINP:
Right now some applicants are considering OINP as best option against waiting for regular FSW draws. And they apply for OINP before having any second thought in hope to get the ITA asap. But generally they do not check the criteria and documentation involved in OINP process. Fulfilling these requirements is very cumbersome and if you do not fulfill any criteria then your time and $1500 will go in vain.

So kindly look into the requirement before applying to OINP in rush and panic.

(At CRS 406, who do have chance for direct ITA, provided you are willing to wait for some time....lesser documentation-lesser chances of rejection & no such limitation of 2 years)

Thanks. I was thinking the same. I was just getting nervous about my score as 406 is going out of reach, as it seems.

 

[Vicky__123]

While I appreciate the effort, I must point out a basic flaw in your calculations, a few example corrections are as under:

CRS Range 26-May 22-Jun Newly Added
1. 601 1200 143 355 355 (because 143 was reset to zero on 31st May, due to the draw)
2. 451 600 656 2216 2216 (because 656 was reset to zero on 31st May, due to the draw)

Nice effort, nonetheless.

Oh, missed that part...thanks for pointing it....but on the other side, let's see that previous CRS distribution was of date 26th May and draw happened on 31st May, i.e. after 5 days. So I think 143 & 656, will suffice those 5 days.

Still, I do think my calculation will give hope to many applicants and clear their confusion to select between FSW and OINP. Also now I am clear that, I will have ITA in next 4 months atmost.

 

[Vicky__123]

Thanks. I was thinking the same. I was just getting nervous about my score as 406 is going out of reach, as it seems.

Buddy, 406 is in reach. I think, we both will get ITA in common draw in July or August.

Good luck to us and all.

 

[lino82]

ROH 67 members now....

 

[samayb]

Hello All,

I have applied for EE and my score is 375. Few days back I received a message which says

"The Government of Ontario is interested in considering you for nomination under its Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) through Express Entry."

When I checked their website, they have an eligibility criteria which says you need minimum of 400 points in EE.

Can someone tell me more about this ? Should I be applying or not. My work experience is in Job Code 2171 and 0213.

 

[shaun75]

Hello All,

I have applied for EE and my score is 375. Few days back I received a message which says

"The Government of Ontario is interested in considering you for nomination under its Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) through Express Entry."

When I checked their website, they have an eligibility criteria which says you need minimum of 400 points in EE.

Can someone tell me more about this ? Should I be applying or not. My work experience is in Job Code 2171 and 0213.

It's your lucky week. The 400 minimum has been removed for one week.

https://www.cicnews.com/2017/06/ontario-express-entry-stream-targets-information-and-communications-technology-workers-069278.html

 

[Mjkab]

As far as I know, they've started targeting occupations from June 26. Please visit the OINP program updates page regularly to be in touch with more recent news. Good luck.

they basically go by the noc & do not check the details...
if you are above 400(now even below 400 also), and your primary noc is of interest to them they will send you NOI...however subsequently your application may be rejected (most likely) as ur experience falls out of last 5 years as they require 1 year experience within last 5 years...no point in pursuing..

even I have received NOI but I have only part year experience within last five years and hence will not pursue OINP as upon scrutiny I'll be declined and will lose my $1500...
----
I assume provinces look at primary NOC only for nominations as it is defined as 'the occupation which the candidate is basing his PR application...so it is unlikely that they have sent you the NOI for the CE..
it is likely that they have missed your experience dates as that details may not have been part of the first filter criteria for them...

great explanation! hero member!

yes I am quite agree with you!

however I am also CEC eligible base on my occupation as fraud analyst in a call center in Montreal Canada.
I found some similarities in job description on NOC 1112 BUT the job requirement is bachelor degree. however for this position requirement is only postsecondary or a bit higher!

I am wondering if I am still eligible to apply or not!

do a small research for me please! greatly appreciated!!

 

[lino82]

Hello All,

I have applied for EE and my score is 375. Few days back I received a message which says

"The Government of Ontario is interested in considering you for nomination under its Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) through Express Entry."

When I checked their website, they have an eligibility criteria which says you need minimum of 400 points in EE.

Can someone tell me more about this ? Should I be applying or not. My work experience is in Job Code 2171 and 0213.

refer the below post...


http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/received-ontario-noi-not-sure-what-next-and-have-concerning-questions.503637/#post-6139575

 

[baka]

He was sooo depressed with the last draw, he needed some time alone!

ROH 67 members now....

true

 

[lino82]

great explanation! hero member!

yes I am quite agree with you!

however I am also CEC eligible base on my occupation as fraud analyst in a call center in Montreal Canada.
I found some similarities in job description on NOC 1112 BUT the job requirement is bachelor degree. however for this position requirement is only postsecondary or a bit higher!

I am wondering if I am still eligible to apply or not!

do a small research for me please! greatly appreciated!!

your primary NOC is not eligible for Ontario PNP as it falls out of 5 years....
Ontario was sending NOI to profiles above 400...& their CEC requirement is 1 year experience within last 3 years....if you have that,then you may apply...however once you apply,Ontario assesses your file and decides on your nomination....i can't say whether they will process your application based on the 'non primary NOC' ...
---
other alternative was to re create your profile with the Canadian experience as primary NOC and hope for an NOI....that way you'll be sure if you receive an NOI ...however you will have to forfiet ur present NOI to do so....
--
so it's your call...refer to my immediate previous post which has 3 links on Ontario PNP...that might help...
---
I have no further info on this and I don't want to misguide you...

 

[ankitshringi]

Hi Seniors,

Need an urgent advice - My WES report has incorrect Date of Birth.
Somehow I didn't notice this for 2 month - noticed it while scanning today

Can someone tell me what I can do to get it corrected?
Also, does it matter in this process if I submit the ECA with incorrect DOB?

Please reply at the earliest

 

[jackdawn]

OINP Total Nomination quota is getting filled very quickly but ICT Quota is only 40% filled while other NOC's have already filled or have reached 90% Quota. To assure they give maximum Nominations to ICT Candidates they have dropped the limit to fill its quota. It doesn't seem to be linked to CIC and I think they might finish their Quota at the time when CIC will drop scores below 400. Let's see what the future holds.

Hey Bill, what wud be the other NOC's they might look at any scope for people with finance/financial services background

 

[Invikto95]

Since you said "don't ask", let me be the first to ask you. Where did you get this info from?
I'm among those who like to drink from the glass which is the most forbidden .

I got this info from my pay stub
Peace and Happy Canada Day.