Had some spare time to check the possibilities to get direct ITA for applicant having CRS near 400, going pessimistic for calculations.
Experts please have a look into the calculation and please point out anything is missed or wrongly considered.
Calculation is based on following assumptions,
1. Frequency of draw : Bi-weekly
2. Draw size : 3300 ITAs
3. Average no. of applicant inflow per day : 150
Gap (in no. of Days) between 65 & 66 draw : 26 days
CRS Range 26-May 22-Jun Newly Added
1. 601 1200 143 355 212
2. 451 600 656 2216 1560
3. 401 450 6717 9463 2746
4. 441 450 226 809 583
5. 431 440 295 1082 787
6. 421 430 206 1172 966
7. 411 420 1878 1968 90
8. 401 410 4112 4432 320
A Total applicant above 400 till 22 June (1+2+3) :12034
B Newly Added Applicants above 400 in 26 Days (1+2+3) : 4518
C Newly Added Applicants above 400 per Day (B/26 Days) between draw 65 & 66 : 174
C'' Newly Added Applicants above 400 per Day considered for future draws : 150
C' Tentative no. of applicants on 28th June (A+(7*C)) : 13250
D Applicant above CRS 400 in poll on 29 July (C'-3409) : 9841
Draw 67 on 5th July
E Total applicant above 400 till 5 July (D+(14xC'')) : 11941
F Considering draw size of 3300 on 5th June, remaining candidate above 400 (E-3300) : 8641
Draw 68 on 19th July
G Total applicant above 400 till 19 July (F+(14xC")) : 10741
H Considering draw size of 3300 on 19th July, remaining candidate above 400 (G-3300) : 7241
Draw 69 on 2nd August
I Total applicant above 400 till 2nd August (H+(14xC")) : 9341
J Considering draw size of 3300 on 2nd August, remaining candidate above 400 (I-3300) : 5841
Draw 70 on 16th August
K Total applicant above 400 till 16th August (J+(14xC")) : 7941
L Considering draw size of 3300 on 16th August, remaining candidate above 400 (K-3300) : 4441
Draw 71 on 30th August
M Total applicant above 400 till 30th August (L+(14xC")) : 6541
N Considering draw size of 3300 on 30th August, remaining candidate above 400 (M-3300) : 3041
Draw 72 on 13th September
O Total applicant above 400 till 13th Sept (N+(14xC'')) : 5141
P Considering draw size of 3300 on 13th Sept, remaining candidate above 400 (O-3300) : 1641
Draw 73 on 27th September
Q Total applicant above 400 till 27th September (P+(14xC'')) : 3741
R Considering draw size of 3300 on 27th September, remaining candidate above 400 (Q-3300) : 241
Draw 74 on 4th October-Cutoff going below CRS 400
S Total applicant above 400 till 27th September (R+(14xC'')) : 2341
T Considering draw size of 3300 on 27th September, remaining candidate above 400 (S-3300): -1159