This is what I think based on what I see on the forum and others GCMS notes. However, please remember that every persons circumstances are different.
First 2 months - The highest risk of being rejected. To be more specific, around the time your medical is passed. Your R10 happens around that time.
You Hit the 3 Month Mark - In most cases, once you pass 3 months, it can be safe to assume that your R10 is passed. So no more PCC issues or the fact that you forgot to submit a document.
3 - 5 months - This is when the A11.2 check happens. If you are really eligible or not? Since this is a FSW-O thread, our eligibility is based purely on our work experience letters and education. Is our reference letters OK? Does it describe our duties clearly? Is it in sync with the NOC we chose? This is when dodgy looking letters get calls to HR managers to verify if the letter is genuine etc. This is a stage where you can still be rejected.
Once all this is done, it goes into security and background checks. Unless you are an international mafia don or a terrorist, I think most of us have no issues with this. The issue here is that sometimes this check lasts 3 weeks. Sometimes it last 12 months. It all depends. All nationalities are not equal here unfortunately. Your nationality and your travel history and any other RED FLAGS can influence the time you spend in this stage. However, since most of us are regular law abiding folks with clean PCC's, by this stage, it is not about IF we will get the PR but more about WHEN we will get the PR.
All these timelines are approx. Your A11.2 could start as early as 2 months too. Or as late as 5 months. Again we wont know for sure.
I think if you really want to know which stage you are in, ordering GCMS notes at the 3rd month mark is a good idea since by month 3, you have probably finished medical and R10 and we can know if our A11.2 is over as well. It takes 30 days for the notes to arrive. So by the 4th month if you don't have a PPR, at-least you will feel better if you know you have already passed R10 and A11.2
First 2 months - The highest risk of being rejected. To be more specific, around the time your medical is passed. Your R10 happens around that time.
You Hit the 3 Month Mark - In most cases, once you pass 3 months, it can be safe to assume that your R10 is passed. So no more PCC issues or the fact that you forgot to submit a document.
3 - 5 months - This is when the A11.2 check happens. If you are really eligible or not? Since this is a FSW-O thread, our eligibility is based purely on our work experience letters and education. Is our reference letters OK? Does it describe our duties clearly? Is it in sync with the NOC we chose? This is when dodgy looking letters get calls to HR managers to verify if the letter is genuine etc. This is a stage where you can still be rejected.
Once all this is done, it goes into security and background checks. Unless you are an international mafia don or a terrorist, I think most of us have no issues with this. The issue here is that sometimes this check lasts 3 weeks. Sometimes it last 12 months. It all depends. All nationalities are not equal here unfortunately. Your nationality and your travel history and any other RED FLAGS can influence the time you spend in this stage. However, since most of us are regular law abiding folks with clean PCC's, by this stage, it is not about IF we will get the PR but more about WHEN we will get the PR.
All these timelines are approx. Your A11.2 could start as early as 2 months too. Or as late as 5 months. Again we wont know for sure.
I think if you really want to know which stage you are in, ordering GCMS notes at the 3rd month mark is a good idea since by month 3, you have probably finished medical and R10 and we can know if our A11.2 is over as well. It takes 30 days for the notes to arrive. So by the 4th month if you don't have a PPR, at-least you will feel better if you know you have already passed R10 and A11.2
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