Bill C-6, Messages between the HoC and the Senate, FACTS ONLY

[Kamran2015]

Spyfy, once again thank you very much for your detailed as much as possible accurate explanations. I have one question: how likely would it be that C 6 both becomes law and the provisions everyone is waiting for (like 3/5) become effective before summer holidays at this point?

 

[spyfy]

Spyfy, once again thank you very much for your detailed as much as possible accurate explanations. I have one question: how likely would it be that C 6 both becomes law and the provisions everyone is waiting for (like 3/5) become effective before summer holidays at this point?

I can't give you a yes or no answer or a simple number. As you know, in this thread I want to keep it to facts/information based on government sources. A simple number would not be reliable, so I'll put it like this:

• The Government has announced that C-6 will be debated in the HoC on Monday, May 29. So it is almost certain that this bill will go back to the Senate in early June, because in the HoC they will not use more than 2,3,4 sitting days on it.
• IF this were a normal bill, it would then be dealt with by the Senate within 1-2 weeks and the Senate usually accepts the HoC compromise on amendments. That means the bill would become law in mid/late June. Note, however that this is a big "IF" because this bill is anything but normal. So it is likely that the bill will pass by the end of June but not certain.
• There is no reliable info at the moment on how fast the provisions will come into force. However, it will not be just some weeks. Most likely we are talking about some months here. They had quite a while to prepare for this bill (a whole year, to be exact), so they won't take a whole year for implementation like last time. But anything between one and six months seems something to expect.

Bottom line:

• It is likely but not certain that the bill will become law before the summer break.
• It is likely that the provisions will come into force within one to six months of the bill passing. Any more precise estimate would be a mere guess that I don't want to post in this thread.

 

[dpenabill]

Reminder, many of the provisions in Bill C-6 will take effect on the date that the Bill receives Royal Assent. This includes the repeal of the intent-to-continue-residing-in-Canada requirement for grant citizenship, among other important parts of the Bill not directly about qualifications for grant citizenship.

There are specific coming-into-force provisions (near end of published version of the Bill) which specify which parts of the Bill will take effect later depending on an order from the Governor in Council (which practically means the date decided on by the PM and advisers, probably Minister of IRCC especially).

Obviously, while not likely, the coming-into-force provisions could be amended prior to a final version is adopted.

 

[spyfy]

Obviously, while not likely, the coming-into-force provisions could be amended prior to a final version is adopted.

It's not just unlikely but actually not allowed. Here are the rules regarding the current stage the bill is in (Consideration of Senate amendments):

A motion for the consideration of Senate amendments requires 24 hours’ written notice pursuant to Standing Order 77(1). The motion may propose that the House concur in, further amend or reject the amendments made by the Senate. It may at the same time reject certain amendments made by the Senate and concur in or amend others. It must relate exclusively to the Senate amendments, and not to other provisions of the bill that are not contemplated by the amendments.

Source: http://www.ourcommons.ca/About/Compendium/LegislativeProcess/c_d_houseconsiderationsenateamendmentsbills-e.htm

So only what is currently in the amendments can be amended. That means only the coming-into-force clauses that are affected by the amendments are up for modification. Those are the application by minors and the appeals process. Note that not even the age requirement for language clause had its coming into force clause adjusted. That means, for example, that the HoC (or subsequently, when it's back there, the Senate) could change the age from 60 to something else (part of the amendments) but not the time this new limit comes into force (not part of the amendments).

In particular, the coming-into-force clauses of all other provisions of the bill (3/5, terrorist clauses etc.) are off the table an must not be amended any further. The House or the Senate could only completely reject the whole bill, it is not admissible to amend anything that hasn't already been amended anymore.

In other words: The bill is beyond third reading on both houses, which means, apart from the amendments proposed, both houses accepted the bill in its current form and therefore lost the right to change anything else.

 

[shahinbd69]

I can't give you a yes or no answer or a simple number. As you know, in this thread I want to keep it to facts/information based on government sources. A simple number would not be reliable, so I'll put it like this:

• The Government has announced that C-6 will be debated in the HoC on Monday, May 29. So it is almost certain that this bill will go back to the Senate in early June, because in the HoC they will not use more than 2,3,4 sitting days on it.
• IF this were a normal bill, it would then be dealt with by the Senate within 1-2 weeks and the Senate usually accepts the HoC compromise on amendments. That means the bill would become law in mid/late June. Note, however that this is a big "IF" because this bill is anything but normal. So it is likely that the bill will pass by the end of June but not certain.
• There is no reliable info at the moment on how fast the provisions will come into force. However, it will not be just some weeks. Most likely we are talking about some months here. They had quite a while to prepare for this bill (a whole year, to be exact), so they won't take a whole year for implementation like last time. But anything between one and six months seems something to expect.

Bottom line:

• It is likely but not certain that the bill will become law before the summer break.
• It is likely that the provisions will come into force within one to six months of the bill passing. Any more precise estimate would be a mere guess that I don't want to post in this thread.

I am a silent member of this forum but I read all threads I really appreciate the realistic comments is spyfy. Thank you very much spyfy

 

[Marooned2]

What is the reasoning behind the speculation that effective date of 3/5 would not take one year? Since C-24 took a year to be effective, it seems its the most probable scenario for me. I'm curious to know if there are any indications it will take less that a year, maybe based on other bills and stuff.

 

[Paris971]

Senate can't delay anymore the Bill c-6. The long process with 1st reading, 2nd reading, comitee and 3rd reading is done.

And I think liberals want to quicly pass the bill and stop the polemic.

On 29th may, they will likely accept amendments. Stiffy makes hypothesis about what will happen if the amendments are rejected. But rigth now, there are not obvious informations the HoC will reject them.

 

[dpenabill]

What is the reasoning behind the speculation that effective date of 3/5 would not take one year? Since C-24 took a year to be effective, it seems its the most probable scenario for me. I'm curious to know if there are any indications it will take less that a year, maybe based on other bills and stuff.

As more informed participants have oft noted, the timeline for actually implementing certain parts of Bill C-6 is subject to a number of contingencies which are affected by internal operations, and thus this is generally difficult if not near impossible to forecast.

Note that significant parts of Bill C-24 took effect immediately upon Royal Assent. Some major procedural changes that Bill made came into force around 40 days after Royal Assent (including the big one, removing the role of a Citizenship Judge in routine application processing), and other provisions took effect at different times, like certain provisions governing revocation of citizenship took effect in May 2015, while those providing the changeover to the 4/6 presence rule took effect June 11, 2015, just shy of a year after Royal Assent. Other than those provisions which took effect immediately upon Royal Assent, the others were subject to an Order by the Governor in Council as to what the in-force date would be.

Similarly with Bill C-6. Many provisions, as I noted above, will take effect the same date that Bill C-6 obtains Royal Assent. Otherwise, several provisions are grouped, and the respective groups will come into force, respectively, on a date to be ordered by the Governor in Council.

While there are many factors which influence what that date will likely be, two loom largest for Bill C-6 in particular. The earlier Minister (Minister McCallum) had explicitly stated that the 3/5 rule and related provisions will be timed to prevent processing disruption, to avoid creating a backlog in applications. What that actually means, and more particularly how that will affect when the revised 3/5 rule comes into force, is far from clear. So this merely confirms that the government will consider this factor when deciding the date to implement the 3/5 rule changes.

The other big factor has to do with the logistics of implementing these particular changes, ranging from new instructions and application forms, to rewriting software for the presence calculator, drafting guidelines for internal process procedures, training personnel, and so on.

Neither of these can be reliably estimated by those of us in the public. That said, some have suggested broad ranges which are about as reasonable a guess anyone can honestly proffer.

However, in contrast to some suggestions that the logistics side of this should not take so long given how long IRCC has had to prepare for these changes, in general the government does not have funding to spend on proposed changes. Most of the funding and thus resource allocation necessary to modify instructions, forms, the calculator, internal guidelines, and training, is not (usually) available until the law prescribing the changes is actually adopted. The sitting government could, as far as I understand these things, include funding for advance preparation in a current budget, but otherwise, ordinarily, the bulk of resources necessary to make the changes are allocated only after the Bill is actually adopted.

This, in significant part, underlies some of the differences between provisions which take effect immediately, which require no or minimal revision of procedure, versus those which require a significant amount of preparation to implement. (And some changes can also require concurrently revising the applicable regulations, which is a process that also takes time . . . I have not analyzed to what extent Bill C-6 will require regulation changes, but Bill C-24, for example, required many changes to the regulations, so in the course of the year following the adoption of Bill C-24 we were able to follow the government's progress in amending the regulations, following the Gazette, or more to the point the lack of progress, the absence of notice for new rules thus enabling many to forecast that certain changes were not coming soon, but without being able to forecast how long it might take. For Bill C-24 we did have the government's announcement, at the time the Bill was adopted, that the revised presence requirements would be implemented in approximately a year, and that is indeed what happened.)

My sense is that there are more potential diversions than others are asserting (the capacity to amend rules amending procedure along the way is more complicated than some discern), but that those are largely unlikely and not worth getting distracted over.

Assuming Bill C-6 obtains Royal Assent before the summer break (no guarantee of this but it is at least one of the fairly likely outcomes), it is, as others have noted, still too difficult to forecast when the 3/5 rule will take effect, other than we know it will not be right away, probably not for a number of months at the soonest.

Perhaps the government will announce a prospective timeline when Bill C-6 obtains Royal Assent (IF it obtains Royal Assent).

 

[walmzd]

I can't give you a yes or no answer or a simple number. As you know, in this thread I want to

• It is likely but not certain that the bill will become law before the summer break.

Wishful thinking From the sequence of actions, C-6 will become a law on June, ONLY if the HoC accepts the amendments from senates.

 

[Paris971]

Here's you have an article about all amendments and their effects:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-passes-bill-that-would-repeal-many-many-conservative-citizenship-changes/article34890037/

As you can read, it's not some kind of stupid amendments but they well complete the Bill C-6. Two of the amendments have been proposed by independent senators. Only one by a conservative senator.

 

[dbss]

Posting to follow the thread.

 

[oomuchi]

http://www.ourcommons.ca/en

No bill c-6 next Monday in the HOC... they will speak about C-46
Please see below:

House Agenda
Monday, May 29, 2017. Subject to change without notice.
11:00 a.m.
Private Members' Business
Bills and motions sponsored by private Members, for which a period is devoted each sitting day.

Private Members' Motions — M-108
Contribution of ranchers and farmers

12:00 p.m.
Government Orders
Each sitting day, a substantial portion of the House’s time is devoted to the consideration of Government Orders, which include any item of business proposed by a Minister for consideration on a certain day.

Government Bills (Commons)
Bills concerned with public policy introduced by a Minister in the House.

Government Business No. 14
Extension of sitting hours and conduct of extended proceedings

2:00 p.m.
Statements by Members
A daily 15-minute period when Members may make brief statements on matters of national, regional or local importance.
2:15 p.m.
Oral Questions
A daily 45-minute period in the House during which oral questions are addressed to Ministers, and occasionally to committee chairs or members of the Board of Internal Economy.
3:00 p.m.
Routine Proceedings
Business of a basic nature for which a daily period is set aside in the House.

Government Orders
Each sitting day, a substantial portion of the House’s time is devoted to the consideration of Government Orders, which include any item of business proposed by a Minister for consideration on a certain day.

Government Bills (Commons)
Bills concerned with public policy introduced by a Minister in the House.

C-46 (second reading)
An Act to amend the Criminal Code (offences relating to conveyances) and to make consequential amendments to other Acts

6:30 p.m.
Adjournment Proceedings
A 30-minute period prior to the daily adjournment, during which Members may raise matters they believe have not been dealt with satisfactorily.
7:00 p.m.
Government Orders
Each sitting day, a substantial portion of the House’s time is devoted to the consideration of Government Orders, which include any item of business proposed by a Minister for consideration on a certain day.

Business of Supply
The process by which the government submits its projected annual expenditures for parliamentary approval.

Consideration in Committee of the Whole - Main Estimates
Consideration of all Votes under Department of National Defence

11:00 p.m.
Adjournment of the House

 

[spyfy]

Yup, they are doing C-46 on Monday according to the schedule.

However, that's no reason to worry to much. Last week they said that C-6 will be on Monday and they will finish up C-46 on Tuesday. Seems like they want to finish C-46 first.

As usual, do NOT use the projected order for subsequent days as information. They only include private member bills. The Tuesday schedule will be published Monday evening.

 

[spyfy]

Wishful thinking From the sequence of actions, C-6 will become a law on June, ONLY if the HoC accepts the amendments from senates.

I wrote a long post elaborating on the reasons for my assessment. So before you accuse me of wishful thinking I would very much appreciate if you actually solidify your judgement of my claim based on your experience from parliamentary procedure and the development of past government bills.

Thanks.

 

[Calgarytown]

Hello Spyfi
Thanks for very diligent and precise input you have provided so far in this thread and the other ones.
Got a question if you could help respond; If I apply for citizenship under current law in vogue which include I will sign the intent to live as part of my application. Once bill c-6 becomes law, the intent to live and any other obsolete provisions will no longer be applicable regardless if I originally signed for it. Can you please reply.
Thanks again
Calgarytown