on a fair note, everyone >480 doesn't mean they don't fit into any sector where !RCC deem lab0ur sh0rtage.
July draw predictions
- Thread starter aommnd
- Start date
I agree with you that the trend is positive but this is still very frustrating
especially since there is a 13k increase in the pull
where are all these people even coming from?
It looks like the +ve trend in 501-600
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of July 18, 2022
that’s very high at this rate, me at 508 - I don’t think i will get an ITA soon and probably by end of the year
Where are these people even coming from? Looks like a huge demand for Canada now
So there are 11 draws remaining this year assuming a draw happens biweekly, and the draw size increases by 250 each time and stops at 3000 (pre-pandemics conservative). That will be 2000+2250+2500+2750+3000*7 = 30500. Also assuming between each draws the number btw 501 and 600 increases by 1000, then there will be 9100+1000*11=20100 candidates within that range in total.
ok that’s not too bad actually.
ok that’s not too bad actually.
No even with a 2000 draws 500s will be cleared this year. The increase from 1500 to 2000 is actually massive as the net FHS draws will grow from ~900 to ~1400. We only have 9000 above 500 right now and only about 350 new 500s enters the pool every 2 weeks.
People having been waiting from September 2021 to apply in CEC, will complete their 2 yr experience by then. Some candidates might have declined the ITA in August/September due to some reason will complete their 2 yr canadian experience in August. So it wont be surprising if we see a lot more people with 500+ points in coming months. I myself have 534 points with a professional degree (eq points with masters degree), clb 9, 2 yr canadian experience and 1 yr foreign experience, a canadian degree, <29 yr age. A lot of my friends have similar, even better points than me. Not to scare any of you but, there will definitely be people with 500+ points in next months as they are waiting since September and will complete 2 yr experience. Hopefully these categories will clear in the next 2 draws though
Not true about the last sentence. The last draw took away couple hundreds from 501-600.
Keeping in view of dynamic nature of EE pool and the number of people gets added w/ >500 score, I would think the score would drop "1" point for every "150" candidates in the pool. So you're looking the score to drop b/w 527-529 considering dumb !RCC pr0mise of "gradual" increase of "250" on 2000 draw on a conservative approach. my chances in Aug 3rd draw --> 50-50. Aug 17th draw --> 80-20 in my opinion.
This time I happen to be correct.
Ppl talk about that the backlog for CEC and FSW was reduced significantly, so it seems that the 10 months suspension of EE worked and is worth it.
I don’t understand why is that.
What was the goal? The goal was to invite applicants in a scale that meets the annual plan and to process them within 6 months.
Now the plan of 2023 requires each draw to invite almost 3k not including PNP applicants, but now they can only do 1/3 of it because otherwise they cannot meet the 6 months service standard.
The goal wasn't achieved, so the 10 months suspension didn't work to a large extent.
Last month an opposition party member criticized IRCC at parliament saying there is nothing but chaos in this department. I think it is a quite fair evaluation.
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Oh, I agree it's frustrating. I was just relieved that they did conduct a draw, because they were kind of late today.
But yes, I expected another 1500 draw so even 250 increase is good. I just hope it's a trend.
And there are always new people completing their 1 year of experience and joining the pool. That is to ve expected.
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