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July draw predictions

aommnd

Star Member
Apr 6, 2022
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25
I don't think they would do CEC draws. Whatever they cover with new program that launches in Septrmber will probably be what they see as accommodating CEC candidates.
If someone can get into either CEC or that new program, which one would be better to go for?
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
If it is part of Express Entry, then you will automatically be considered, I assume. Or maybe you will need to have an expression of interest or something.

If not part of Express Entry, then you can apply at that one AND Express Entry at the same time. It will probably carry some costs (?) but I don't think you (any of us?) will have to choose.
 

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
If it is part of Express Entry, then you will automatically be considered, I assume. Or maybe you will need to have an expression of interest or something.

If not part of Express Entry, then you can apply at that one AND Express Entry at the same time. It will probably carry some costs (?) but I don't think you (any of us?) will have to choose.
If it is part of EE then IRCC has a pre-defined priority of which program you must apply when you are qualified in more than one programs. This is strictly defined in IRPA and reiterated in the Bill C-19 (with the term "program" replaced by "catagory" I believe). So as a candidate you don't get to choose which program you are gonna apply.

If it is something else, then go for EE for sure cause at least it is quick.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
The bigger concern is HOW the new program will be organized. If they indeed only intend to target health care workers, transportation and hospitality, then many people will not be eligible. I hope there will be a category for international graduates with experience regardless of NOC but who knows. I don't actually know how many CEC candidates are international graduates vs people with work permits - I used to think most were international graduates but I could be mistaken. IF most are international graduates, and IF they invite them without NOC specific draws, this would be the closest you can get to CEC-only draw*.

*Again, the assumption is that most CEC candidates are international graduates, so if I am wrong about this, then it will not be like CEC draw.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
If it is part of EE then IRCC has a pre-defined priority of which program you must apply when you are qualified in more than one programs. This is strictly defined in IRPA and reiterated in the Bill C-19 (with the term "program" replaced by "catagory" I believe). So as a candidate you don't get to choose which program you are gonna apply.

If it is something else, then go for EE for sure cause at least it is quick.
Wait, is this how you go? You can't be both FSW and CEC, for example? Bummer.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
Ok, so what happens then? There is a hierarchy in terms of which ones take precedence?

But it's still fine, because you are not forced to have only one, the way we are with Express Entry in general. (It may seem strange why someone can legitimately have more than one EE profile, but with French, many PNP programs target people who have French as the first language, but unless you are equally great in French like you are in English, your CRS score goes down if you select French to be your first language).
 

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
I don't think you need to have multiple profiles. When you submit your profile the system automatically determines which programs you are qualified. Currently there are only 3 so it is not very complicated. In the future with the new "TR2PR" (should it be part of EE), the new catagories, things will get complicated, but to you as a candidate nothing changes. You show yourself to IRCC, and they pick.

With the new system implemented I think CEC will still be on top of priority, since in that way IRCC can invite more "catagoried" ppl. That's exactly why they want the new system so badly in the first place.
 
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aommnd

Star Member
Apr 6, 2022
117
25
557 to 542 seems at least a bit optimistic. If the draw size goes up to 2000 the next time, maybe we can see 530s or high 520s? I wonder what the distribution of people between 500-550 is
 
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SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
I don't think you need to have multiple profiles. When you submit your profile the system automatically determines which programs you are qualified. Currently there are only 3 so it is not very complicated. In the future with the new "TR2PR" (should it be part of EE), the new catagories, things will get complicated, but to you as a candidate nothing changes. You show yourself to IRCC, and they pick.

With the new system implemented I think CEC will still be on top of priority, since in that way IRCC can invite more "catagoried" ppl. That's exactly why they want the new system so badly in the first place.
I do hope they will think of CEC people, because most 500+ candidates are not CEC, and if the new program only targets limited NOCs (some of which are similar to those that will probably be targeted by EE NOC draws), then CEC becomes a bit meaningless. And it means losing international students, many of which who picked Canada because of PGWP and an opportunity for PR. I think they know the importance of this (for the economy, in terms of keeping numbers of international students). But I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.
 

aommnd

Star Member
Apr 6, 2022
117
25
I do hope they will think of CEC people, because most 500+ candidates are not CEC, and if the new program only targets limited NOCs (some of which are similar to those that will probably be targeted by EE NOC draws), then CEC becomes a bit meaningless. And it means losing international students, many of which who picked Canada because of PGWP and an opportunity for PR. I think they know the importance of this (for the economy, in terms of keeping numbers of international students). But I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.
Not only 500+, at this point it is tricky to know when it will go down to low 500s. I'm hoping 520s in the next 1-2 draws but I can't see it going to 500 quickly just looking at sheer numbers
 
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