What you guys think?? > ITA Predictions <

[vensak]

Re: What you guys think??

I think processing delays can happen but if let suppose 45K applicants will land in 2017 there will be lots of applicants that land in 2017 would have received their ITAs in mid to late 2016 because if on avg processing time is 8-9 months in successful application. in half of 2017 80% people landed would have received ITAs in 2016.

We have to look at lots of things because now they have given 3 months to submit an application so if anyone who would have received ITA last day he/she has till 1 june to submit an app. If people take extra time to submit their app they and face delay like if their app is approved in 7-8 months it will definatlely take them to 2018 to land.

And if an applicant recieved an ITA last day it will take him suppose till 15th march to do medicals. So even if his/her app gets approved in nov or dec 2017 his/her visa will be valid till march 15th 2018. he/she might delay landing as lots of people do take 1-2 months to land because its not easy to relocate or in some ways medical conditions like pregnancy stops them.

So above points should be taken into consideration as well with the reject ITAs and unsuccessful applications.

Cold numbers:

1. Amount of ITA from May 2016 until now (10 months batch): 41376 (83% of the year elapsed)
That is if we would take in the consideration the old delay for apply (60 days) and the target delay for processing application (6 months). technicaly those applicants would be able to get their visa in 2017. What is missing there are 2 months of ITA in order to have comparable sample of whole year flow.

2. Amount of ITA from July 2016 until now (8 months batch): 375276 (66% of the year elapsed).
That is if we would consider it as statisics that is focusing on ITA itself on a yearly basis (where we consider one immigration year to begin in July and end in June,).

3. Amount of ITA from October until now (6 months batch): 34521 (50% of the year elapsed). That is when we would take sample of last 6 months.

Now if you compare that against 45k of successfull applications we would get following:
1. 91,95% ITA issued against what is by min. needed to get required immigrants (if 100% success rate of application after ITA is assumed). All that is against 83% of the elapsed year.
2. 83,4 % of ITA issued (same condition as above) against 66% of the year elapsed
3. 76,7% of ITA issued (same condition as above) against 50% of the year elapsed.

If we assume, that Canada does not plan significant increase of Economic immigrants, this trend alone is a bit strange.

This whole trend is point to the moment, where the rate of failed ITA (which will not end in COPR) is increasing followingly:

1. 8,95%
2. 16,73%
3. 26,71%

If however we would only check last 3 months, then we will get following:
25717 ITA for 25% of elapsed time, which is 57,15% of the minimum needed ITA, which give us 32,148% of failed ITA.

 

[fatani]

Hmm. Anyone else want to shed some light

 

[sunnyvin]

Hmm. Anyone else want to shed some light

Year end report will put some light on the trend.
lima is no longer a factor.
Express entry is now the only source of major immigration backlog is all done
Expect score to fall further.
They want students as the major component of immigration so students just out of college don't score much points ad no work ex.. They are all in the range of 370 to 400.

 

[xpressentry]

Year end report will put some light on the trend.
lima is no longer a factor.
Express entry is now the only source of major immigration backlog is all done
Expect score to fall further.
They want students as the major component of immigration so students just out of college don't score much points ad no work ex.. They are all in the range of 370 to 400.

Students just out of college / uni wont even be accepted in the pool cos they need a minimum of 1 year experience to qualify for CEC, unless they have foreign work experience prior to Canadian education then they can qualify for FSW.