Tips for 2016 (Future) PGP Applicants

[firetiger]

Submitted on 1/4 UPS 6.31am, cc charged on 1/19, I'm still not receiving AOR email or mail, What is going on??

 

[wangshd]

Submitted on 1/4 UPS 6.31am, cc charged on 1/19, I'm still not receiving AOR email or mail, What is going on??

E-Cas?

 

[scell]

Submitted on 1/4 UPS 6.31am, cc charged on 1/19, I'm still not receiving AOR email or mail, What is going on??

I am in the same boat. CC charged on January 20 and still haven't received AOR through mail or email and Ecas is not updated either.

 

[firetiger]

E-Cas?

No eCas at all.

 

[Jacaranda]

my cc was charged 9th Jan, and ecas activated, but no AOR

 

[tongyiba]

Am I reading the 2016 PGP Application Timeline report right that on March 7, 2016, a few new people got charged for their applications?

 

[randebutler]

Am I reading the 2016 PGP Application Timeline report right that on March 7, 2016, a few new people got charged for their applications?

Yes, the expanded the intake to 10,000 so 5,000 more cards will be charged soon

 

[dadaum]

125600 is a real backlog in 2012.Dotted line shows 42387 in 2014 is projected figure.Considering 20000 visa every year from 2013 comes to 60000 till 2015.means backlog of 65600 +20000 addition till 2016 means 85600.also this 20000 figure addition is families.So no may be more. Please share my views and correct me if I am wrong.

 

[dchoudh]

125600 is a real backlog in 2012.Dotted line shows 42387 in 2014 is projected figure.Considering 20000 visa every year from 2013 comes to 60000 till 2015.means backlog of 65600 +20000 addition till 2016 means 85600.also this 20000 figure addition is families.So no may be more. Please share my views and correct me if I am wrong.

Just wanted to check where did you get the 125600 number...looks preety scary

 

[soonihope]

125600 is a real backlog in 2012.Dotted line shows 42387 in 2014 is projected figure.Considering 20000 visa every year from 2013 comes to 60000 till 2015.means backlog of 65600 +20000 addition till 2016 means 85600.also this 20000 figure addition is families.So no may be more. Please share my views and correct me if I am wrong.

The biggest problem with govt figures is that at times they talk about application numbers and at other times they talk about visa numbers. The two are different for example 5000 applications may translate into 9000 visas as each of the 5000 applications won't all have just one person listed.

It's so difficult to get transparency when it comes to govt figures.

 

[dadaum]

So for 2016 applicants it may not be less than 5 yers.The new govt kept the figure of 20000 visas same as 2014.

 

[soonihope]

So for 2016 applicants it may not be less than 5 yers.The new govt kept the figure of 20000 visas same as 2014.

They just don't seem to want to increase the visas issued each year, and without those increasing How will they speed the processing as promised in the election.

Even if there are about 60000 applications in the backlog including the 10000 for 2016 then that's probably about 100000 visas needed to process everyone.

 

[dadaum]

I do not know how to paste the link but see the post of soonihop on page 232.there is a link for backgound spmething.please study the whole article.

 

[soonihope]

This was in the press release today:

Reuniting more families

Reuniting families helps immigrants build successful lives in Canada. When families are reunited, it improves integration and economic outcomes for the immigrant while contributing to the development of Canada’s social, cultural and economic development.

The 2016 immigration levels plan is increasing admissions of sponsored spouses, partners and dependents to help reduce inventories and processing times, and is maintaining high immigration levels in the Parent and Grandparent Program.

IRCC is doubling the number of sponsorship applications for parents and grandparents that it will accept for processing to 10,000 a year. 20,000 admissions are planned under the Parent and Grandparent Program and by the end of 2016 it is expected that the backlog inventory will be reduced by approximately 15%.

Therefore mathematically 85% are still in the backlog so 15% of x is 20000visas. x=133333.33

Hence my assumption approximately 130000 parents and dependents waiting for visas as of today.

 

[tamilnadu]

This was in the press release today:

Reuniting more families

Reuniting families helps immigrants build successful lives in Canada. When families are reunited, it improves integration and economic outcomes for the immigrant while contributing to the development of Canada’s social, cultural and economic development.

The 2016 immigration levels plan is increasing admissions of sponsored spouses, partners and dependents to help reduce inventories and processing times, and is maintaining high immigration levels in the Parent and Grandparent Program.

IRCC is doubling the number of sponsorship applications for parents and grandparents that it will accept for processing to 10,000 a year. 20,000 admissions are planned under the Parent and Grandparent Program and by the end of 2016 it is expected that the backlog inventory will be reduced by approximately 15%.

Therefore mathematically 85% are still in the backlog so 15% of x is 20000visas. x=133333.33

Hence my assumption approximately 130000 parents and dependents waiting for visas as of today.

here are my two cents....not an expert....no guarantee...I don't take any responsibility, hence, use these with your judgement

I can share my spreadsheet sometime later (difficult to understand for any one other than me as it`s not quite clean)

My estimates:

1. As of Jan 1, 2016, PGP likely had ~33,300 applications backlog.

2. all the pre Nov 4, 2011 applicants should see visa issued this year. Probably few from 2014 batch as well (my estimate ~1,633 'persons' from 2014 batch should see visa processing...note 'persons'...). The fact that few 2014 applicants have seen their files making progress gives me slight more confidence in my estimates.

3. Highly unlikely, however, there is a slim possibility that all the applicants (except 2016) may see visa (or almost there) by the end of 2016. Again, highly unlikely, but it is one of the solutions (feasible but not necessarily accurate) that my model gave.

4. I think I can explain how they arrived at 15% reduction in backlog by the year 2016 end.

Assumptions I used:

1. for every application with one parent, there was one application with two parents (overall years). I know it sounds crazy, and probably applications with single parent are in fact much less (than what my model assumes). But my model takes me to the same estimate '1' (see above) whether I use 15% reduction condition OR 125,600 backlog in 2012 (both numbers given by CIC). By the way I have used real numbers for people admitted (searched online)

Year Actuals Admitted
2012 21,815
2013 32,318
2014 18,150
2015 20,000 (this one is estimate)

2. The only other assumption is that the backlog number they reported for the end of the year (2012) did not account for persons admitted in 2012. If my assumption is wrong, the wait time will increase by 12 months. I am tempted to speculate that my estimated wait time should be applicable (at worst) within 1 year error.


Now as always, I will wait and see how applicable my estimates are. Like any other model.

Two cents. I am not an expert.