Hello dpenabill. English is not my first language, that’s the reason why, I always read your posts 4 to 5 times. Hahaa. Thank you for your input.
Because I’m not fluent in English, I would like to make sure I understand. . . .
Sorry. I realize my writing style can be difficult to read even for those whose English is their first language. Long story highlighted by an ugly crash at the intersection of philosophy and jurisprudence, further skewed by an unhealthy preference for reading 19th century authors, fermented in studies over the course of more than a half century. Old dog dogged by deeply entrenched habits.
It often takes more time and effort than I can afford to trim my posts to make them more reader friendly. BUT obviously this is a subject which is more likely to be read by persons for whom English may not even be their second language. So I really should try harder.
Part of the problem, however, is that this subject is particularly complex. It can be difficult to break things down into more direct statements.
. . . you say that « applicants in process for a good while, they are not targeted », right? Do you know how long it takes for starting, and processing a cessation? Don’t you think it’s the opposite: long time in process = they are looking for something , maybe cessation?
I do not know for sure.
In previous posts I and others have discussed the likelihood that if IRCC is screening citizenship applicants for PR-refugees who *
should* ("should" according to current Canadian government policy) be subject to cessation proceedings, that screening is likely done at Sydney prior to the transfer to the local office. That seems likely. We do not know for sure. Even if true that would not preclude a processing agent from later (later on in the process) identifying reasons for referring the applicant for cessation and doing that.
Thus, my sense is that those dealing with this issue can be optimistic if their application has passed the *In Process* stage. Not for sure. There is still some risk (and that risk would increase if there is further use of home country passport and even more so if there are more trips to the home country).
As for inferences based on an application being a "long time in process," what constitutes a "long time?" More than a year? There is a tendency in this forum for many to think that eight or ten months from AOR to oath is a "long time in process."
In contrast, I believe many entirely ROUTINE applications will take that long. So I would not reach any negative inferences if five or seven months have passed since AOR.
Otherwise, since the statistics show that Canada continues to bring new cessation cases, the concurrence of (1) having had an application in process for several months or somewhat longer, and (2) no referral for cessation made, seems to me to be a good sign the application is proceeding ROUTINELY, that it has in effect passed the stage where it might be referred for cessation.
BUT I do NOT know any of this for sure. I just tend to think that if the PR-refugee who applied for citizenship is going to be referred for cessation, that would NOT take all that long to happen. I don't think the appearance of nothing happening on the application suggests IRCC or CBSA has it in queue to be referred for cessation.
Not much.
The Roma refugee-claimant issue is a particular situation pursuant to which, ALLEGEDLY, there are many Hungarian Roma traveling to Canada and then seeking asylum when, in contrast, Canada does not recognize their need for protection. I do not think this has much to do with who cessation proceeding are brought against.
I do not follow refugee issues closely at all. I do not know the overall numbers. I cannot put 200 cessation cases per year (or 50 per quarter) in context compared to how many PR-refugees there are or how many are applying for citizenship.
How many PR-refugees do travel to their home country? If we knew that in an average year only 200 or so were traveling to their home country, seeing 50 new cases in one quarter would signal that Canada was going after nearly all of them. If the number is more like two thousand going home in a given year, that would suggest Canada is only going after the worst cases, barely one in ten.
But I do not have a clue what those numbers are. I do not know what criteria Canada is using in deciding who to proceed against. Any trip to home country? Stays in home country for more than two weeks? four? eight weeks?
When I refer to egregious cases I think of those in which the PR-refugee returns to home country for long enough to be working or in effect residing (living) again in the home country. Or otherwise traveling to the home country for lengthy stays or frequently traveling to the home country.
BUT I do not what criteria makes a difference, what amount of going home will tip the scales. I suspect few lawyers have a clear idea.
What we do know is that the risk can be avoided by not traveling to the home country. Or it can be reduced by NOT again traveling to the home country. In the meantime, many are in a WAIT and SEE what happens mode.