Refocusing Express Entry new changes long term and current situation

[fatani]

https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

This is a report on refocusing EE.

Few important things to note before everyone look in it.

As we all know there were 60K profiles active as on jan 3rd 2016. According to EE year end report. This report shows us that as of 26th may 2016. The number has declined to 56K which means all our prediction might prove wrong there will be not too many people waiting.

Another point in this report that almost all of whom got LMIA thus 600 points were scoring 300 in core human capital. That is bottom 7% of the score. It means all applicants with this scores will not get ITA even if they have LMIA. Which will reduce the cutt off.

And this report in its last page states that in the long term. Only Age, Education and language will matter the most the bigger bubbles are of them. Which is the indication that in long run whom so ever has these 3 things have more than a good chance.

 

[sweetcute123]

Work Experience also matter ;D

 

[thourb]

You make a similar point to the one I made in another thread when talking about the numbers in the current EE pool and its composition:

It's not after a year though. We have much more recent data that shows that actually the number of candidates in the pool have actually gone down. At the end of 2015, there were 60,042 candidates in the pool. The most recent data we have is from May 2016, showing approximately 57,500 candidates in the pool - a decrease of approximately 4%. (Data comes from the Refocusing Express Entry presentation: https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf)

Granted, I cannot possibly calculate or even guess at the exact composition of the pool, however I think that it's fair to say that numbers won't have spiked from this time last year on the basis of the facts we know. Indeed, as we know, ITAs have surged in the last month or two - reaching record levels. There's every chance that the number of people in the pool is even lower than what it was in May.

My hunch is that there were a lot of people in the < 450 score range in 2015-16 who were discouraged by the fact that the CRS score required was constantly higher than their own maximum CRS score. Therefore, many people would have simply let their Express Entry profile expire and would not have reapplied. Some may have lost interest in emmigrating to Canada altogether, whilst others could have sought PNP or LMIAs. Conversely, some would have improved their IELTS or education, improved their CRS and may have had an ITA. This, along with the several month period where ITAs were only around 750, could explain why there are now clearly more people in the 450-470 range than there were a year ago.

People have got a habit on this forum of overestimating the number of people with high CRS. It wasn't that long ago, for example, that some were saying there were likely 2000+ people sitting on a score of 482. How quickly they were proved wrong!

The bottom line for me is that, taking into account the changes that have been introduced and the fact that since the pre-EE backlog has been reducing, ITAs have shot up to record levels, there is no way that CRS score isn't going to come plummeting down. I genuinely believe that we'll see ITAs issued to those around the CRS 400 level in a matter of perhaps only 6 months. It sounds like a crazy statement to make, but we're just not used to seeing ITAs around the 2000-2500 level. If that becomes the new norm and the average CRS score decreases, as it will now that LMIAs are worth only 50 (making the max score for most of us 650 instead of 1200), there will be a significant lowering of required CRS, it's inevitable.

 

[fatani]

https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

This is a report on refocusing EE.

Few important things to note before everyone look in it.

As we all know there were 60K profiles active as on jan 3rd 2016. According to EE year end report. This report shows us that as of 26th may 2016. The number has declined to 56K which means all our prediction might prove wrong there will be not too many people waiting.

Another point in this report that almost all of whom got LMIA thus 600 points were scoring 300 in core human capital. That is bottom 7% of the score. It means all applicants with this scores will not get ITA even if they have LMIA. Which will reduce the cutt off.

And this report in its last page states that in the long term. Only Age, Education and language will matter the most the bigger bubbles are of them. Which is the indication that in long run whom so ever has these 3 things have more than a good chance.

And to go with it in this report they mentioned it that the score not coming down below 450 is a matter of concern for stakeholders and it is a point to improve on so it definately will come down.

And they have also mentioned that reducing the LMIA points will bring significiant downward pressure on the score. So by all means they want score to go down.

 

[fatani]

You make a similar point to the one I made in another thread when talking about the numbers in the current EE pool and its composition:

The bottom line for me is that, taking into account the changes that have been introduced and the fact that since the pre-EE backlog has been reducing, ITAs have shot up to record levels, there is no way that CRS score isn't going to come plummeting down. I genuinely believe that we'll see ITAs issued to those around the CRS 400 level in a matter of perhaps only 6 months. It sounds like a crazy statement to make, but we're just not used to seeing ITAs around the 2000-2500 level. If that becomes the new norm and the average CRS score decreases, as it will now that LMIAs are worth only 50 (making the max score for most of us 650 instead of 1200), there will be a significant lowering of required CRS, it's inevitable.

Fully agreed.

 

[Elrud]

Fully agreed.

Scores might go below 450 by end of December this year as not all people will be impacted by the reform. Only 25% of applicants (international students) in the pool got bonus points. For French, should they get additional points, only 1% have French in the pool anyway

 

[Pawshi]

Based on the huge increase in ITA numbers and meager decrease in CRS score, I do believe that there are thousands of applicants in the 450 to 470 range. This will take good time to clean up and with the inflow of the new applicants with a good CRS score on daily basis, it does not look to be possible. On the top of it, good number of international students will also get added into that range or go even beyond. So, it will be very crowded in 450+ range.

Thus, those normal FSW applicant with the score below 450 with no tie up, no canadian education, no canadian experience does not stand any chance to immigrate to Canada through normal queue process in express entry. Either they have to go for PNP, or job offer with LMIA (for 50 points) or look for some other country for immigration.

 

[prads_s]

Based on the huge increase in ITA numbers and meager decrease in CRS score, I do believe that there are thousands of applicants in the 450 to 470 range. This will take good time to clean up and with the inflow of the new applicants with a good CRS score on daily basis, it does not look to be possible. On the top of it, good number of international students will also get added into that range or go even beyond. So, it will be very crowded in 450+ range.

Thus, those normal FSW applicant with the score below 450 with no tie up, no canadian education, no canadian experience does not stand any chance to immigrate to Canada through normal queue process in express entry. Either they have to go for PNP, or job offer with LMIA (for 50 points) or look for some other country for immigration.

Heart breaking, saddening but very close to reality.

 

[Abul Aziz]

What about points for siblings?

 

[prads_s]

What about points for siblings?

Nothing happening on sibling points on 19th, probably in future.

 

[electromecca]

Based on 2015 report bit over 46% of invitations were sent to candidates with lmia job offer. Based on the change that will be introduced those candidates will fall below current minimum. Do you guys really think the minimum score won't drop?

Take a look at the distribution of points in "Express Entry Active Candidates and Invitations Issued as of January 3rd, 2016 by “Core” CRS scores" table (http: //www .cic.gc.ca /english/resources/ reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp). Vast majority of candidates with a valid job offer has only between 200-350 core points. This would mean that those candidates shouldn't waste any more time, pursuing their dream to move to Canada?

I think this change is working against employing experienced class from Europe or other countries.... At least they should redistribute extra points better (200 vs 50 points)

 

[Elrud]

Based on 2015 report bit over 46% of invitations were sent to candidates with lmia job offer. Based on the change that will be introduced those candidates will fall below current minimum. Do you guys really think the minimum score won't drop?

Take a look at the distribution of points in "Express Entry Active Candidates and Invitations Issued as of January 3rd, 2016 by “Core” CRS scores" table (http: //www .cic.gc.ca /english/resources/ reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp). Vast majority of candidates with a valid job offer has only between 200-350 core points. This would mean that those candidates shouldn't waste any more time, pursuing their dream to move to Canada?

I think this change is working against employing experienced class from Europe or other countries.... At least they should redistribute extra points better (200 vs 50 points)

That's what I think though. Although there are many in 400-450 range, those in the above 600 because of LMIA would no longer exist.

Score will drop ;D

 

[ashu1710]

Based on the huge increase in ITA numbers and meager decrease in CRS score, I do believe that there are thousands of applicants in the 450 to 470 range. This will take good time to clean up and with the inflow of the new applicants with a good CRS score on daily basis, it does not look to be possible. On the top of it, good number of international students will also get added into that range or go even beyond. So, it will be very crowded in 450+ range.

Thus, those normal FSW applicant with the score below 450 with no tie up, no canadian education, no canadian experience does not stand any chance to immigrate to Canada through normal queue process in express entry. Either they have to go for PNP, or job offer with LMIA (for 50 points) or look for some other country for immigration.

"Based on the huge increase in ITA numbers and meager decrease in CRS score, I do believe that there are thousands of applicants in the 450 to 470 range."

Not quite. close to 1000 new LMIA candidates enter the pool every month (probably more this month because of the upcoming changes). Most of the LMIA candidates have 200-300 points. Look at the score distribution in Refocusing Express Entry... the number of candidates above 470 without sponsorship of some sort (LMIA\PNP) is very low.

 

[Elrud]

"Based on the huge increase in ITA numbers and meager decrease in CRS score, I do believe that there are thousands of applicants in the 450 to 470 range."

Not quite. close to 1000 new LMIA candidates enter the pool every month (probably more this month because of the upcoming changes). Most of the LMIA candidates have 200-300 points. Look at the score distribution in Refocusing Express Entry... the number of candidates above 470 without sponsorship of some sort (LMIA\PNP) is very low.

470 scores is now cleared. Assuming only a few enter the pool in these two coming week with 470s, obviously I don't think 1000s. Nest draw might be 450-460.

 

[johnsyk]

You make a similar point to the one I made in another thread when talking about the numbers in the current EE pool and its composition:

The bottom line for me is that, taking into account the changes that have been introduced and the fact that since the pre-EE backlog has been reducing, ITAs have shot up to record levels, there is no way that CRS score isn't going to come plummeting down. I genuinely believe that we'll see ITAs issued to those around the CRS 400 level in a matter of perhaps only 6 months. It sounds like a crazy statement to make, but we're just not used to seeing ITAs around the 2000-2500 level. If that becomes the new norm and the average CRS score decreases, as it will now that LMIAs are worth only 50 (making the max score for most of us 650 instead of 1200), there will be a significant lowering of required CRS, it's inevitable.

+1