Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[aj534160]

This is the positive energy I am looking for. I will have about 463 and hearing about 470 minimum is really depressing. Thanks !

Yeah, talking without logic has become a hobby for many here I guess.
Annoying to hear them demotivating people below 470
4 more days to provide to those dudes about the lack of logic in their research on their favorite "470 Forever" terminology

 

[aj534160]

Thank you so much for this apt analysis.

I was able to calculate the pool distribution over the last 4 draws from CEC up until the recent FSW draw last week. An average of 100-200 candidates only are being added every two weeks to those in 450 -460, 461-470 and 471-480. We are only 22,000 within this range. 6 draws of 3900 will clear us out completely
I am quite sure the fsw draw of next week will be around 471 crs and after that 468, then 461 and subsequently keep plummeting downwards. Bear in mind that for the last 3 years, the cut off has always been as low as 440 even if there are a few high scores of 470 . On the average the lower score draws are usually more than the higher scores every year.

That being said, even if you have 450 i advice you rest your mind and stay positive as the scores will definitely drop some more.

Last year we had 47% Indians claim ita with no COVID-19 or wes slowness and crs points were low as 438. It only rose towards end of the year when pool was highly congested. It will keep getting lower for sure.
keep being positive.

cheers to all of us. I know in the next 3 draws or i will get ita.

I was planning on relocating to Canada for studies but when i calculated my crs scores at 462 i quickly jumped into the pool to save myself paying international tuition.

I'm too at 462 mate (with spouse) and we are no longer far away from clinching ITA. If the cut-off drops to 460 too soon, there is a great chance that it can drop to the 450s as well

 

[georgeb88]

To dudes that again say that the cut-off will be frozen at 470, you will see the score plummeting to the 460s and even below. Will love to talk to such dudes when the score really plummets.
Why these dudes do not have a solid theory to back their logic.
I know many people from Rajasthan, Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkatta, Kerala, Mumbai who are damn eager to write IELTS but simply they cannot. The reasons being people not willing to step out, IELTS keeps rescheduling, street and community wise lockdowns, many are stranded in their native, no IELTS happening in many towns, Cities throughout India. Nearly 26 friends of mine have been trying to write IELTS and only 1 has confirmed a CD IELTS slot for the date - 29th July (after several rescheduling and even this might be rescheduled).

Not many are first of all willing the venture out and write the exam and bring the virus to home that cause a huge risk to the elderly family members.

Particularly British Council has not yet resumed their services anywhere in the world.

In USA no IELTS possible. No IELTS center open in USA yet and is not likely to be open in the coming months as well

And yes, not sure who told ECA has resumed but I would like to share my view on this - CES, ICES and IQAS has advised candidates that all transcripts coming to them will be lying in the reception until September or October (except digital transcripts but first of all, not all Indian/US universities are open)
WES alone has a small team that ships the packages to the staff house address. But note that so far they have completed the transcripts that came to them by April. But again, the usual secondary verification, the "has to be sent from university campus" definition, documents on hold for a prolonged time, increased TAT for processing files, and other factors comes to the rescue. So practically except the online transcripts, it is now firstly not easy to go Indian/US/Chinese universities and easily get a transcript at the first place. Many universities are still shooing away people and not an easy job to first get transcripts. The challenge of posting it from the Indian Post office/Speed post is altogether a different Challenge.

So yes, I really love to prove the logic of every dude who baselessly say that the score will be capped at 470.

But if IRCC stops the FSW or skips to conduct CEC exclusive draw (which is very very very unlikely), score might not plunge but come on, IRCC has no good reason to stop when they analyzed and resumed it after 4 months. Many sources say that IRCC will push further will FSW draws (many be an FST in the middle) and hence again, 460s and 450s just dont listen to dudes that will promise that the score will be 470.

IT WILL PLUNGE. CRS CUT OFF WILL PLUNGE 100% to the lower 460s and possibly 450s to some extent.

470 cut-off admirers, pls do not keep disheartening people and if you really want, pls talk with proper logic.
Al the info I provided here is a firsthand experience of my friends and what I have witnessed.

Well if nothing else, I think you will speak it into existence let it be as you say, hope the scores come down.

 

[Sicilian]

Scores reflect the policy of governments stance. And Minister has been very clear to their commitment towards welcoming immigrants, and it can only be achieved with modest scores which are very high indeed as well. This 470 is a bit too high as a policy move, it should fall. Stay hopeful guys !

 

[lampbreaker]

Thank a lot for the reply. 1. Do you think changing file has no effect on FSW eligibility and OINP eligibility. Since I no longer expect to work in NOC 1114 going forward. I am doing economics now. Thanks again.
2. I thought under 4012, TA experiences count towards FSW and Express entry. Isn't that the case?

The only purpose of 'primary occupation' field is that you need to show that you have 1 year of continuous experience in that same occupation. I think it is easier to show with your past experience than TA experience. Also, 1114 does not require any license which would have mattered. It is my opinion, you can evaluate yourself.

 

[dan_8]

The only purpose of 'primary occupation' field is that you need to show that you have 1 year of continuous experience in that same occupation. I think it is easier to show with your past experience than TA experience. Also, 1114 does not require any license which would have mattered. It is my opinion, you can evaluate yourself.

Thank a lot for the advice. I needed an outside view.

 

[Uncle Yayo]

Guys.... 4 more days... we are waiting patiently!!

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Guys.... 4 more days... we are waiting patiently!!

5days mate, 5.

 

[AverageIndianGuy]

601-1200	360
501-600	652
491-500	483
481-490	1,600
471-480	4,561

That is 360+652+483+1600+4561 = 7656 profiles above 471 prior to last draw.
Last draw was 3900, so remaining, 7656-3900 = 3756

Right after the last draw, they should have 3756+ 200 (from two days between the table data and draw) = 3956 i.e. 4000 aprox.

From past trends and recent reality, there can be atleast 500-700 new profiles in 471+ bracket by coming Wednesday. That will be 4000+700 = 4700 profiles above 471 CRS for the 22nd July draw. A draw with 3900 ITAs should clear all profiles above 472 or 471 with a cut off from March 2020.

Just my predictions, feel free to join...

 

[Pyruvate1]

601-1200	360
501-600	652
491-500	483
481-490	1,600
471-480	4,561

That is 360+652+483+1600+4561 = 7656 profiles above 471 prior to last draw.
Last draw was 3900, so remaining, 7656-3900 = 3756

Right after the last draw, they should have 3756+ 200 (from two days between the table data and draw) = 3956 i.e. 4000 aprox.

From past trends and recent reality, there can be atleast 500-700 new profiles in 471+ bracket by coming Wednesday. That will be 4000+700 = 4700 profiles above 471 CRS for the 22nd July draw. A draw with 3900 ITAs should clear all profiles above 472 or 471 with a cut off from March 2020.

Just my predictions, feel free to join...

I agree with you. The next draw will be 471 or 472 then the B2B on the 29th will bring the crs to the 460s. I know IRCC might want to be fair too with fsw after favoring CEC for sometime

 

[Faithyyyyy]

Just a quick question. So i have 4 years work experience in sales overseas not in my home country. I was issued a work permit for the duration. It has my job position (sales) boldly written on the work permit / residence visa issjed on my passport. Now i have another 5 years as a managing director(sales and marketing communications) in my company where i pay myself monthly salary. I have reference letter from all my business associates to back this up. My previous job i have reached out to get reference letter and HR is still not responding. I will get my ITA soon with my score of 462 in the next 3 draws. Now my question is, will my proof of employment, i.e previous employment letter, bank statement from my salary account in that country and also the work permit stamp on my resident visa be enough proof of employment. All my noc are both skill category are both A and B respectively.

Can anyone advise.

See us all with our ita soon.
Cheers

 

[BlindGoku]

601-1200	360
501-600	652
491-500	483
481-490	1,600
471-480	4,561

That is 360+652+483+1600+4561 = 7656 profiles above 471 prior to last draw.
Last draw was 3900, so remaining, 7656-3900 = 3756

Right after the last draw, they should have 3756+ 200 (from two days between the table data and draw) = 3956 i.e. 4000 aprox.

From past trends and recent reality, there can be atleast 500-700 new profiles in 471+ bracket by coming Wednesday. That will be 4000+700 = 4700 profiles above 471 CRS for the 22nd July draw. A draw with 3900 ITAs should clear all profiles above 472 or 471 with a cut off from March 2020.

Just my predictions, feel free to join...

Yup the math makes sense, just feel the cut-off will be slightly higher that 471-472. But draws during August should bring the score to the 460s

 

[Sheena87]

Anyone knows what is their total quota for this year?

 

[akmh1b]

The total number of ITAs issued in 2020 is now up to 53,800. This signifies that despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Canada is committed to reaching its immigration targets for 2020 lower end of which is 88500 and expected is 92500

 

[aonanuga002]

Thank you so much for this apt analysis.

I was able to calculate the pool distribution over the last 4 draws from CEC up until the recent FSW draw last week. An average of 100-200 candidates only are being added every two weeks to those in 450 -460, 461-470 and 471-480. We are only 22,000 within this range. 6 draws of 3900 will clear us out completely
I am quite sure the fsw draw of next week will be around 471 crs and after that 468, then 461 and subsequently keep plummeting downwards. Bear in mind that for the last 3 years, the cut off has always been as low as 440 even if there are a few high scores of 470 . On the average the lower score draws are usually more than the higher scores every year.

That being said, even if you have 450 i advice you rest your mind and stay positive as the scores will definitely drop some more.

Last year we had 47% Indians claim ita with no COVID-19 or wes slowness and crs points were low as 438. It only rose towards end of the year when pool was highly congested. It will keep getting lower for sure.
keep being positive.

cheers to all of us. I know in the next 3 draws or i will get ita.

I was planning on relocating to Canada for studies but when i calculated my crs scores at 462 i quickly jumped into the pool to save myself paying international tuition.

The spike happened after the second FST draw of last year.

We could expect an FST draw .... that could stall the drop of the crs scores.