why do you keep saying this? when countries like USA, India with the highest number of candidates are on lockdown...I hope you are wrong, because you have not said any reason why the score will be in 470
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Things are far from returning to normal as records show. Huge chunk of candidates come from the USA and India. Reports show that the two aforementioned countries aren't close to "normal". Paper based IELTS resumed in India yesterday I think, but at a low capacity than it was accustomed to before the Covid 19 saga. US aren't conducting anything at the moment either, and some states are back to full lockdown until further notice. The reality is that things won't get better until next year at the very least.
I reckon that they only thing that would stuck the draw at 470 is if they pause or alternate between CEC and general draws. If not, the scores would plummet.
For 4months, the number of candidates in the 471-480 didn't increase significantly. Take what you may from the above fact.
Exactly my point. Even PNP nominations slowed down a little.
From the beginning of March, when they stopped all program draws in favour of CEC and PNP only draws, IRCC continued with 3900 invites as a total of CEC and PNP invites for each draw. It took the score to unprecedented lows in the range of 430. It is all up to IRCC what they want to continue with, as of now everything points to more general draws otherwise there was no point to start the all program draws.
I did my ECA via WES, submitted my transcript late April and got it validated early-mid May. That being said, I submitted my master's degree from renowned US university, which I assume its easier and faster to validate than a master's degree in other countries..
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Wow, that is fast. Maybe it was that. Although my uni is renowned across my continent, and I doubt they were uncooperative. I went to the University of Cape Town, and had a WES ECA for my master's done. My documents arrived via DHL at WES in Toronto on December 23rd and it took them until March 7th 2020 to complete my ECA.
To dudes that again say that the cut-off will be frozen at 470, you will see the score plummeting to the 460s and even below. Will love to talk to such dudes when the score really plummets.
Why these dudes do not have a solid theory to back their logic.
I know many people from Rajasthan, Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkatta, Kerala, Mumbai who are damn eager to write IELTS but simply they cannot. The reasons being people not willing to step out, IELTS keeps rescheduling, street and community wise lockdowns, many are stranded in their native, no IELTS happening in many towns, Cities throughout India. Nearly 26 friends of mine have been trying to write IELTS and only 1 has confirmed a CD IELTS slot for the date - 29th July (after several rescheduling and even this might be rescheduled).
Not many are first of all willing the venture out and write the exam and bring the virus to home that cause a huge risk to the elderly family members.
Particularly British Council has not yet resumed their services anywhere in the world.
In USA no IELTS possible. No IELTS center open in USA yet and is not likely to be open in the coming months as well
And yes, not sure who told ECA has resumed but I would like to share my view on this - CES, ICES, and IQAS has advised candidates that all transcripts coming to them will be lying in the reception until September or October (except digital transcripts but first of all, not all Indian/US universities are open)
WES alone has a small team that ships the packages to the staff house address. But note that so far they have completed the transcripts that came to them by April. But again, the usual secondary verification, the "has to be sent from university campus" definition, documents on hold for a prolonged time, increased TAT for processing files, and other factors come to the rescue. So practically except the online transcripts, it is now firstly not easy to go Indian/US/Chinese universities and easily get a transcript in the first place. Many universities are still shooing away people and not an easy job to first get transcripts. The challenge of posting it from the Indian Post office/Speed post is altogether a different Challenge.
So yes, I really love to prove the logic of every dude who baselessly say that the score will be capped at 470.
But if IRCC stops the FSW or skips to conduct CEC exclusive draw (which is very very very unlikely), score might not plunge but come on, IRCC has no good reason to stop when they analyzed and resumed it after 4 months. Many sources say that IRCC will push further to conduct FSW draws continuously (maybe an FST in the middle) and hence, again, 460s and 450s just don't listen to dudes that will promise that the score will be 470.
IT WILL PLUNGE. CRS CUT OFF WILL PLUNGE 100% to the lower 460s and possibly 450s to some extent.
470 cut-off admirers, pls do not keep disheartening people and if you really want, pls talk with proper logic.
Al the info I provided here are firsthand experiences that my friends encountered and also what I have witnessed.
Why these dudes do not have a solid theory to back their logic.
I know many people from Rajasthan, Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkatta, Kerala, Mumbai who are damn eager to write IELTS but simply they cannot. The reasons being people not willing to step out, IELTS keeps rescheduling, street and community wise lockdowns, many are stranded in their native, no IELTS happening in many towns, Cities throughout India. Nearly 26 friends of mine have been trying to write IELTS and only 1 has confirmed a CD IELTS slot for the date - 29th July (after several rescheduling and even this might be rescheduled).
Not many are first of all willing the venture out and write the exam and bring the virus to home that cause a huge risk to the elderly family members.
Particularly British Council has not yet resumed their services anywhere in the world.
In USA no IELTS possible. No IELTS center open in USA yet and is not likely to be open in the coming months as well
And yes, not sure who told ECA has resumed but I would like to share my view on this - CES, ICES, and IQAS has advised candidates that all transcripts coming to them will be lying in the reception until September or October (except digital transcripts but first of all, not all Indian/US universities are open)
WES alone has a small team that ships the packages to the staff house address. But note that so far they have completed the transcripts that came to them by April. But again, the usual secondary verification, the "has to be sent from university campus" definition, documents on hold for a prolonged time, increased TAT for processing files, and other factors come to the rescue. So practically except the online transcripts, it is now firstly not easy to go Indian/US/Chinese universities and easily get a transcript in the first place. Many universities are still shooing away people and not an easy job to first get transcripts. The challenge of posting it from the Indian Post office/Speed post is altogether a different Challenge.
So yes, I really love to prove the logic of every dude who baselessly say that the score will be capped at 470.
But if IRCC stops the FSW or skips to conduct CEC exclusive draw (which is very very very unlikely), score might not plunge but come on, IRCC has no good reason to stop when they analyzed and resumed it after 4 months. Many sources say that IRCC will push further to conduct FSW draws continuously (maybe an FST in the middle) and hence, again, 460s and 450s just don't listen to dudes that will promise that the score will be 470.
IT WILL PLUNGE. CRS CUT OFF WILL PLUNGE 100% to the lower 460s and possibly 450s to some extent.
470 cut-off admirers, pls do not keep disheartening people and if you really want, pls talk with proper logic.
Al the info I provided here are firsthand experiences that my friends encountered and also what I have witnessed.
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Yes it was extremely fast, was surprised. Thye only needed the transcript, which was submitted electronically via Credential Solutions, so there was no need for involvement of my University, or any other additional document. On the other hand, I also have a bachelor degree and a master degree from a renowned Mexican University, top in LATAM, but I am sure the process of validation and the documents needed would have made it harder for me to get ECA validation on a timely manner.
I believe CRS cut-off scores will go down as long as India and USA don't have IELTS going at full swing, or if IRCC changes their policy and they start to allow the online IELTS. Plus the issues of getting ECAs are also a big problem. As mentioned on this forum, there are availability issues in countries like India and USA. Keep in mind that around ~50% of people getting ITAs are from India, and with this bottleneck for new applicants, CRS scores should go down.
I am hoping that the IRCC continues next Wednesday with the all programs draw, as I am part of the 478 club who didn't got the ITA due to the February cut-off
Yes, you should select 1114 irrespective of OINP. Because TA experience during studying may not be acceptable.
Thank you so much for this apt analysis.
I was able to calculate the pool distribution over the last 4 draws from CEC up until the recent FSW draw last week. An average of 100-200 candidates only are being added every two weeks to those in 450 -460, 461-470 and 471-480. We are only 22,000 within this range. 6 draws of 3900 will clear us out completely
I am quite sure the fsw draw of next week will be around 471 crs and after that 468, then 461 and subsequently keep plummeting downwards. Bear in mind that for the last 3 years, the cut off has always been as low as 440 even if there are a few high scores of 470 . On the average the lower score draws are usually more than the higher scores every year.
That being said, even if you have 450 i advice you rest your mind and stay positive as the scores will definitely drop some more.
Last year we had 47% Indians claim ita with no COVID-19 or wes slowness and crs points were low as 438. It only rose towards end of the year when pool was highly congested. It will keep getting lower for sure.
keep being positive.
cheers to all of us. I know in the next 3 draws or i will get ita.
I was planning on relocating to Canada for studies but when i calculated my crs scores at 462 i quickly jumped into the pool to save myself paying international tuition.
I was able to calculate the pool distribution over the last 4 draws from CEC up until the recent FSW draw last week. An average of 100-200 candidates only are being added every two weeks to those in 450 -460, 461-470 and 471-480. We are only 22,000 within this range. 6 draws of 3900 will clear us out completely
I am quite sure the fsw draw of next week will be around 471 crs and after that 468, then 461 and subsequently keep plummeting downwards. Bear in mind that for the last 3 years, the cut off has always been as low as 440 even if there are a few high scores of 470 . On the average the lower score draws are usually more than the higher scores every year.
That being said, even if you have 450 i advice you rest your mind and stay positive as the scores will definitely drop some more.
Last year we had 47% Indians claim ita with no COVID-19 or wes slowness and crs points were low as 438. It only rose towards end of the year when pool was highly congested. It will keep getting lower for sure.
keep being positive.
cheers to all of us. I know in the next 3 draws or i will get ita.
I was planning on relocating to Canada for studies but when i calculated my crs scores at 462 i quickly jumped into the pool to save myself paying international tuition.
Thank a lot for the reply. 1. Do you think changing file has no effect on FSW eligibility and OINP eligibility. Since I no longer expect to work in NOC 1114 going forward. I am doing economics now. Thanks again.
2. I thought under 4012, TA experiences count towards FSW and Express entry. Isn't that the case?
Hi everyone. I have a question about medical examination. I have applied for work permit outland and got a medical exam request letter from IRCC, and completed the exam. Soon after that I got ITA and now I am not sure whether I can use the same medical or have to do a new upfront one. Could you please share your opinion or experience? Thanks.
Your analysis is accurate. The only thing that can prevent the CRS from plummeting is if IRCC do not conduct FSW draws regularly. As u said, number of people in the pool are increasing at snail pace, so if IRCC keeps picking 3900 people every fortnight, there is no reason why scores should not reduce further.
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