Ray of Hope - 96th Draw

[AlfredoInans]

What about the draw size ? Cutoff will go low only with a bigger or same draw size , don't you think so ?

Yes I expect the size to at least stay the same, although signs point to it going even bigger. The 4% increase in target for this year should result in an increase in ITAs compared to last year. Only way to achieve that is to increase the draw size.

 

[SithLord]

So does 435 have any chance?

 

[aahaanbajaj]

And let me help everybody:

1. How come that only 2167 people have score 441+, yet the draw was at 441.

This pool info is from 19 July not from 25 July

And

ITA will be sent out during next 24 hours !!

I was going to ask the same! Phew!! thank you.. I was a bit worried. My score is 456 and I did not see an invitation yet :O

Don't worry, just plan your next steps. You will get it soon. No harm in asking same thing again and again. The way I see this as life altering moment of one's life, and wisest of men would get anxious.

 

[Gtman]

I am a newbie and my application should go onto the pool next month. Score will be 434 or thereabouts.

One question on PCP. Why is PCP not a good alternative to this.

If Ontario opens up and since most people prefer to stay there for better job opportunities, is that not a much viable alternative to people on the borderline.

Thx

Yes I expect the size to at least stay the same, although signs point to it going even bigger. The 4% increase in target for this year should result in an increase in ITAs compared to last year. Only way to achieve that is to increase the draw size.

 

[special3220]

There's no surge. The figures are consistent with the figures for before 19th. As a matter of fact the average is similar to what we've seen in draws throughout the year. The IELTS effect has always been exaggerated and this just proves it. Everyone was insisting the minimum cutoff would go up from 442 because of IELTS and yet it has gone down. Next draw will only reduce even more.

I dont understand how can you say there is no surge. Just take the numbers that we have and analyse them. ON July 19 there were 2167 profile in the 441 and above. Now my estimate is currently there are 150 profile left in 441. So before the draw today there were 3900 profile in 441 and above. So in 6 days 1733 profile got added in 441 and above that is 288 profile oer day in that range. That is just super high.

Now lets consider the whole two weeks. Last Draw was 442 with june cut off so basically around 10-20 profile left in 442. This week week 441 with december cut off. So I would say around 40-50 old profile got removed today. So around 3700 new entry got added in the 441 and above in just 14 days. That is 264 profile per day in 441+ region.

Without Ielts we had around 225 per day. Now you decide if IELTS have any effect or not.

 

[indpnv]

I am a newbie and my application should go onto the pool next month. Score will be 434 or thereabouts.

One question on PCP. Why is PCP not a good alternative to this.

If Ontario opens up and since most people prefer to stay there for better job opportunities, is that not a much viable alternative to people on the borderline.

Thx

What's a PCP?

 

[jessoabr]

Been in the pool for 1 year, 3 months and 10 days. Started with 408 to 414 to 439 to 453. It took me 5 Ielts to get what I needed and I almost gave up in btw.
But God is great and thank you friends for keeping the hope up!

 

[Gtman]

Apologies. Meant PNP. Provincial Nominee Program

ti="indpnv, post: 7110895, member: 741719"]What's a PCP?[/QUOTE]

 

[indpnv]

Apologies. Meant PNP. Provincial Nominee Program

ti="indpnv, post: 7110895, member: 741719"]What's a PCP?

[/QUOTE]

In that case, it cost's you money, additional paperwork and you need to meet some criteria to get a nomination. In case of Ontario, they send you a notification to apply.

 

[skw]

I got an ITA in my profile.

hi, did you get an email or did you simply check your profile?

 

[ishangodbole]

hi, did you get an email or did you simply check your profile?

Both.

 

[Gtman]

Got it. Thx. But am assuming that most people who are in the 430 to 440 range would not mind the additional paperwork or expense and that it is not significantly high. Unfortunately for some reason Ontario PNP has not issued invitations since February.
In that case, it cost's you money, additional paperwork and you need to meet some criteria to get a nomination. In case of Ontario, they send you a notification to apply.[/QUOTE]

 

[Pooja_Kri]

nice one. I want to know if he is likely to get invitation today even though he submitted yesterday?

I am in the same boat too. Submitted yesterday night with 462 score. Fingers crossed! Please update after your cousin gets the ITA.

 

[Alex SA2C]

TEF?

Its possible but I would be starting from absolutely nothing

 

[gauravmlal]

If we try to project the draw size , we could use the figures from last year. In 2017, a total of 86000+ ITAs were issued to meet the annual target of 71000+ . This year's target stand at 74900 and IRCC has issued 47200 so far. So the numbers speak for more or less the same size 2 to 3 more draws. Lets see how it goes though. Next expected draw is on 8th August with no IELTS , but yes many new entrants from 20th July result who couldn't make it in time. With a draw size 3750 or more and a certain draw , we may expect some cheers in the life of 440 group. Lets hope IRCC keeps the draw size same and make a draw on 8th August. Experts your thoughts ?