Ray of Hope - 88th Draw

[abhishek_89]

if next draw is in 2 weeks with 3500 ITA what would the cut off go to? 440 any chance? it seems the pool is clearing out

Yes, it could be 440/441.
The pool keeps clearing out 3000 applicants every 2 weeks for a long time now just to have another 3000 land in soon!

 

[abhishek_89]

Have you guys noticed any trend in tie break rule >>I just don't want to end up in a situation where scores are tied and tie break is some where in January...

There is no trend to the tie breaker rule. Whoever was ranked 3500th today when the draw happened had created profile on March 26th.

 

[abhishek_89]

guys with the current trend when would we hit 440?any prediction?

considering 2 week gap draws and 3500 ITAs, Apr 25th or May 9th.

 

[AlwaysBlessed]

Have you received any email from CIC notifying that there is some change in your account?

I received ITA few mins back. You should receive it too. Congrats in advance

 

[special3220]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day

196 or 200 above 440 is still manageable if CIC sticks with 3500 ITAs per draw in a bi weekly basis. Considering the highest per day entry above 440 from your calculation which is 227 and if a draw happens in two weeks time then there is a good chance we will reach 441 because 227*14 = 3148.

I personally think if cic sticks with 3500 ITAs then future will bear good news for many of us here who are stuck in 430 region.

 

[abhishek_89]

please someone predict the cut off for the next draw!

Here it is:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-87th-draw.551053/page-86#post-6859574

 

[solid daddy]

would anyone be kind enough to help me in deciding the right NOC heading. i am a government officer with the following set of duties:

Job Duties:
(i) Examination of export/import consignments/ goods at wharfs/ Dry ports/ Airport/ Customs stations etc. and detection of mis-declarations.
(ii) Reconciliation/audit of temporary import bonds (Raw material & machinery).
(iii) Assessment of duty/taxes and determination of value of consignment in accordance with the Customs Act, 1969.
(iv) Confirmation of Pakistan Customs Tariff(PCT) headings, ascertains and cross checks the value, type quality and quantity of the consignment.

 

[siriusrooney]

Assuming 3500 ITAs are issued in the next draw-
1 week gap draw should see the cut off reach 438/439
2 week gap draw should see the cut off reach 440/441

This is the prediction that we were waiting to hear!

 

[Snazzy007]

There is a whatsapp group....interested please join....this will help us communicate better on the next course of action ...below is the link

https://chat.whatsapp.com/3gaqOVeEtmpL843MrBUYe0

 

[Ayogb]

Congrats to everyone who made the cut today. For those who didn't...one step closer. We stay hopeful.

 

[calky360]

Today's draw is very encouraging. I'm expecting 440-441 for next draw. If we continue with 2 week 3500 draws, I'd expect it to take around 3-4 draws (8 weeks) to get to 438. Lots of people to clear out in 431-440 range. Back to back draw would be very helpful.

 

[Eli31]

Well that's what i'm hopeful to see as well
and thanks for informing us about the change in the EE profile, I've just updated mine.

I dont have my EE profile changed so far

 

[sundar17feb99]

After an agonizing wait of 8 months, to say "I am relieved" is just an understatement... Happy to share with all the members here that I received my ITA...this is after my spouse's IELTS scores increased in this 3rd attempt and propelled us 6 points ahead from 440 to 446...Thank heavens. Thanks to all here for your support.

Hey Jagan, wish you the best buddy

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day

a single back to back draw can balance the huge influx of applicants sitting on 438-442 range. Otherwise, it will take considerable amount of time to see the declination on the cutoff from 442-438 even with 3500 itas every fortnight. Badly need a draw with 3500 next Wednesday............

 

[mathansri]

After an agonizing wait of 8 months, to say "I am relieved" is just an understatement... Happy to share with all the members here that I received my ITA...this is after my spouse's IELTS scores increased in this 3rd attempt and propelled us 6 points ahead from 440 to 446...Thank heavens. Thanks to all here for your support.

Hearty congratulations mate.