Ray Of Hope - 87th Draw

[Raghava18181]

A bit to correct everybody ideas.
1. If OINP will close for a bit, it will only affect people that did not submit their application and not those who have already done so. The very reason for such break is to deal with the application and count how many spots are left before reopening again for this year.

2. People constantly mix up target of immigrants with ITA. Please do not forget that there can be more people per application. We do not have complete data in order to determine optimal amount of ITA. (% of EE PNP is not known, average size of accompanying family is not know, ITA failure rate is not known). Hence statement like they need to have 74k ITA might or might not be correct.

3. Provinces are asked to spread releases of their applicants all over the year (this is an assumption, but it seems to be valid, given the fact that there is certain amount of PNP each draw). higher releases might happen close to the end of the year or beginning of the new year (when they try to close the current / last year quota).

Just a clarification though.. the 1 million doesn’t include family members for EE as I can say from the link below. Each catagory including family, PNP, etc are clearly defined but for federal high skilled it doesn’t say that include family anywhere. At the least we know the target ITAs and based on that we know we cannot count family members in the equation of 74K. I will stand corrected if I am shown any data which tells me that the 310000 includes or are based on family size.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

Secondly, the number for PNP seems unusual high to not include EE PNP in it (55000). What I mean is that I see no reference that states that EE PNP is part of 74900 ITA and not the 55000 that PNPs are allocated

My thoughts are just to be positive and to hope against hope that somehow there is light at the other end of the tunnel

 

[indpnv]

I see. Well technically speaking, would everybody take their NOI they would not need to send out anymore NOI this year. But I doubt that will be the case. The question is just how many of those NOI will not be used up (that might be the reason for them to wait another 1-2 months to see how many more do they have to issue.

Agreed that Nomination v/s NOI wouldn't be the same, I was only confused with that 1400 NOI number, that seemed outdated to me.

 

[indpnv]

NOI (Notification of Interest) is not Nomination. NOI is just the invite sent by Ontario to apply for its PNP program. Invites don't necessarily get converted to nominations.

Totally get that, I was only talking about the 1400 NOI someone posted earlier.

 

[Raghava18181]

74900 is the PR target for the federal high skilled economic stream, not the ITA target. PR target and ITA target are not same as 1 PR is not equal to 1 ITA.

Darn right.. this means that the number of ITAs must be more the the PR target even if by a small number right? So the average must be even higher.. that is in case the CIC expects to meet the said target of course

 

[Tech_girl123]

Well, I don't think predictions help much.... last time everyone predicted the cutoff won't go below 450. But Monday's draw proved everybody wrong!
so you never really know

 

[vensak]

Just a clarification though.. the 1 million doesn’t include family members for EE as I can say from the link below. Each catagory including family, PNP, etc are clearly defined but for federal high skilled it doesn’t say that include family anywhere. At the least we know the target ITAs and based on that we know we cannot count family members in the equation of 74K. I will stand corrected if I am shown any data which tells me that the 310000 includes or are based on family size.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

Secondly, the number for PNP seems unusual high to not include EE PNP in it (55000). What I mean is that I see no reference that states that EE PNP is part of 74900 ITA and not the 55000 that PNPs are allocated

My thoughts are just to be positive and to hope against hope that somehow there is light at the other end of the tunnel

Wrong again. All their targets are in amount of immigrants

From your link:

Canada will welcome 310,000 new permanent residents in 2018, 330,000 in 2019 and 340,000 in 2020.

Everybody including babies will become permanent resident once landed. Then just take the calculator and count targets for each stream together to get 310k heads. Not applications.

So yes those 74k in EE will translate in app. 1/2 of successful applications (if the average family size is 2).

 

[Maverick28]

Just a clarification though.. the 1 million doesn’t include family members for EE as I can say from the link below. Each catagory including family, PNP, etc are clearly defined but for federal high skilled it doesn’t say that include family anywhere. At the least we know the target ITAs and based on that we know we cannot count family members in the equation of 74K. I will stand corrected if I am shown any data which tells me that the 310000 includes or are based on family size.
The 74k number is for Permanent Residents that will enter Canada (which includes families)
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html

Secondly, the number for PNP seems unusual high to not include EE PNP in it (55000). What I mean is that I see no reference that states that EE PNP is part of 74900 ITA and not the 55000 that PNPs are allocated
You are right here. 55k figure includes the EE PNP too.
My thoughts are just to be positive and to hope against hope that somehow there is light at the other end of the tunnel

 

[Raghava18181]

Wrong again. All their targets are in amount of immigrants

From your link:

Canada will welcome 310,000 new permanent residents in 2018, 330,000 in 2019 and 340,000 in 2020.

Everybody including babies will become permanent resident once landed. Then just take the calculator and count targets for each stream together to get 310k heads. Not applications.

So yes those 74k in EE will translate in app. 1/2 of successful applications (if the average family size is 2).

Thanks for the clarification.. I just checked and stand corrected

 

[Raghava18181]

Thanks for the clarification on point number 1 appreciate it!

In that case can we not approximate that around 40K to 50k ITAs be enough? Why are the ITAs for the past year and possibly the year before that more than the target.. I mean even if you discount people rejecting ITAs and visa getting rejected etc.. does feel like a rather large number of ITAs to me keeping in mind the target.. example 2017


On point number 2 thanks again! But does it not mean then that even this factor will add to ITAs .. I mean add as a factor to increase number of ITAs so that the target is met?

Thinking of the above and based on the past year .. can we not atleast safely state that CIC must invite atleast 74900 ITAs.. I may be wrong again but just trying to understand

 

[Kurco]

Well, I don't think predictions help much.... last time everyone predicted the cutoff won't go below 450. But Monday's draw proved everybody wrong!
so you never really know

Well said. I believe we are all wrong and right here. CIC keeps surprising us every time. We just try to put some predictions and try to keep the hopes alive for everyone.

 

[Maverick28]

Thanks for the clarification on point number 1 appreciate it!

In that case can we not approximate that around 40K to 50k ITAs be enough? Why are the ITAs for the past year and possibly the year before that more than the target.. I mean even if you discount people rejecting ITAs and visa getting rejected etc.. does feel like a rather large number of ITAs to me keeping in mind the target.. example 2017
I am not that good with numbers here but the target is for the people to land in the year. After ITA, it takes time to submit it and then get the application approved. Then a person lands in Canada, which could be up to 6 months or more after the application approval. Basically a person getting an ITA in 2017 could land in 2018 and will be counted towards the target of 2018.

On point number 2 thanks again! But does it not mean then that even this factor will add to ITAs .. I mean add as a factor to increase number of ITAs so that the target is met?
The EE PNP constitutes a little fraction of the 55k PNP quotas. For example, if my memory serves right, last year OINP EE had a target of around 6k immigrants through EE. You can check the annual and mid year report of IRCC for further analysis.
Thinking of the above and based on the past year .. can we not atleast safely state that CIC must invite atleast 74900 ITAs.. I may be wrong again but just trying to understand

 

[Patriot17]

Hi All... Got Ontario Nomination today !
CRS now stands at 1015

 

[vensak]

Thanks for the clarification on point number 1 appreciate it!

of ITAs so that the target is met?

Thinking of the above and based on the past year .. can we not atleast safely state that CIC must invite atleast 74900 ITAs.. I may be wrong again but just trying to understand

That would be correct if every single ITA would result in a successful application. However since that is not the case, they need to predict the failure rate and the average family size as well.
But as they have more exact numbers, they will see how those numbers are evolving. Their problem was that first 2 years were not really good data for such prediction. (they might got some data about the average family size from the past, but not about how many applications will be rejected and how many ITA will not be used). This was because of the size of ITA in 2015 and first half of 2016 was considerably lower. Add to it change of ITA validity - 90 days instead of 30, and you will get distorted picture.

However end of 2016 and 2017 gave much better overview, so they have just corrected accordingly. Further corrections are possible depending how the pool will behave.
Also I doubt that there will be increased % of rejected application (because of the notoriety of the system by now).
As for the declined ITA, actually higher CRS score will put more pressure on applicants to decline it from objective reasons (you made a mistake and your actual CRS was lower than the cut off at the date of ITA), rather than subjective reasons (waiting for PCC instead of using a prompt LOE in your application; wanting to make changes that do not affect your CRS score, not having valid passport at the moment - again you can place LOE and your passport application for that).

 

[afarrakh]

Hi All... Got Ontario Nomination today !
CRS now stands at 1015

Congrats. Did u have job offer? What was NOC?

 

[Kurco]

Hi All... Got Ontario Nomination today !
CRS now stands at 1015

Congrats dude