Ray Of Hope - 87th Draw

[Chillovski]

They have started getting those points in mid March itself. That's why you saw the sharp spike in CRS cut off post 3 week draw.

That is not the correct info buddy. They haven't even started processing the vast majority of OINP applicants who got the NOI in 2018. I don't believe anyone who submitted their application in 2018 has got a nomination so far.

As of now, this year, only the people who submitted their OINP applications in Nov and Dec 2017 have got their nominations and hence the ITAs, us 2018 applicants are still waiting for any progress on our applications.

Judging by the current waiting times and the backlog, the nominations for people who applied in late January 2018 and after (first 2018 NOIs were issued in late Jan) will only start coming in by late April or May 2018 at the earliest.

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi, sorry but What you mean with back to back draws ? thank you

1 week gap draws.

 

[abhishek_89]

we have seriously lost the advantage of not having IELTS exam results for the last 2 weeks, with IELTS results coming out tomorrow, whenever the draw takes place next week the Cutoff will go above 446 for sure now........... In January we have seen optimistic predictions on the cutoff to go down to 435 by end March, now we are having April and the cutoff is still there where it was in December. Not only the competition have soared, we have also seen CIC to become so tight on having draws with big numbers. It doesn't look good from any angle now, from now on prediction can end peoples dream to migrate to Canada. & with OINP being so contradictory this year, Ray of Hope is definitely getting narrower and narrower everyday !!!!

We had 3 draws recently which happened with a 3-week gap (Dec 6, Jan 10, Mar 14), that has caused this situation. Otherwise by now, the CRS cut off would have been easily in the 430s.

I personally feel CIC understood that by issuing more ITAs in the beginning of the year (like in 2017), it does not help their cause, instead have lesser ITAs issued in the beginning of the year and maybe in the 2nd half of the year increase the ITAs being issued to meet their targets. As by the 2nd half of the year, the number of folks stuck at each score would be pretty high and they would not need to go as low as 413.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

We had 3 draws recently which happened with a 3-week gap (Dec 6, Jan 10, Mar 14), that has caused this situation. Otherwise by now, the CRS cut off would have been easily in the 430s.

I personally feel CIC understood that by issuing more ITAs in the beginning of the year (like in 2017), it does not help their cause, instead have lesser ITAs issued in the beginning of the year and maybe in the 2nd half of the year increase the ITAs being issued to meet their targets. As by the 2nd half of the year, the number of folks stuck at each score would be pretty high and they would not need to go as low as 413.

Great analysis. Unfortunately, 2018 entrants in the 430's is suffering this long wait trauma. However, according to the current trends, how many 2 week gap draws can be guessed that one has to wait who is sitting on 435?

 

[Chillovski]

Great analysis. Unfortunately, 2018 entrants in the 430's is suffering this long wait trauma. However, according to the current trends, how many 2 week gap draws can be guessed that one has to wait who is sitting on 435?

If the current trends remain, we will not see the CRS come to 435 this year.

However, the hope (and the likelihood as well), is that the current trends will not remain, and the IRCC will start getting more aggressive in terms of the numbers of ITAs issued, as well as the frequency of draws.

If I have to guess, I'd say we will end this year with the CRS cutoff in the high 420s.

 

[Varunaimar]

That is not the correct info buddy. They haven't even started processing the vast majority of OINP applicants who got the NOI in 2018. I don't believe anyone who submitted their application in 2018 has got a nomination so far.

As of now, this year, only the people who submitted their OINP applications in Nov and Dec 2017 have got their nominations and hence the ITAs, us 2018 applicants are still waiting for any progress on our applications.

Judging by the current waiting times and the backlog, the nominations for people who applied in late January 2018 and after (first 2018 NOIs were issued in late Jan) will only start coming in by late April or May 2018 at the earliest.

Then why did we suddenly see a spike to people sitting above 450 in the March 14 draw?

 

[Chillovski]

Then why did we suddenly see a spike to people sitting above 450 in the March 14 draw?

It's the magic of the 3-week gap between draws... it always does such wonders. It did so before as well in Dec 2017 when the cutoff rose from 439 to 452.

For the March 14th draw, quite a bit of the Nov/Dec 2017 OINP folks were also getting their nominations, contributing to the higher CRS.

 

[Varunaimar]

It's the magic of the 3-week gap between draws... it always does such wonders. It did so before as well in Dec 2017 when the cutoff rose from 439 to 452. This is understandable, but this year, the number of people joining at 440+ increased to 225 per day. It was only 180 per day last December. Post March 26 draw, the statistics showed that this has again reduced to around 180 per day. This is proving to be a key driver in the CRS cut-off scores.

For the March 14th draw, quite a bit of the Nov/Dec 2017 OINP folks were also getting their nominations, contributing to the higher CRS. I guess more guys will join the pool at 600+ scores in the coming weeks.

 

[metabug]

Total no. of ITAs issued so far = 17500.
Remaining ITAs to be issued this year = 57400 (74900-17500)
Considering they continue to have two draws every month for the remaining 9 months in this year they will have to increase the no. Of ITAs to 3188 on an average to meet their annual traget of 74900.
So we can definitely expect a rise in no. Of ITAs in future which in turn can bring the CRS down.

 

[anik2015]

 

[Varunaimar]

Total no. of ITAs issued so far = 17500.
Remaining ITAs to be issued this year = 57400 (74900-17500)
Considering they continue to have two draws every month for the remaining 9 months in this year they will have to increase the no. Of ITAs to 3188 on an average to meet their annual traget of 74900.
So we can definitely expect a rise in no. Of ITAs in future which in turn can bring the CRS down.

That is, assuming they want to meet this target. They could choose not to.

 

[Chillovski]

Indeed , you can expect a lot more people with the extra 600 points in the coming weeks. I think the Q1 2018 OINP applicants' nominations will hit a peak in May/June, which will undoubtedly put upward pressure on the CRS cutoff. However, I think (hope) that it will be more than offset by a higher frequency of draws during that time period and a higher number of ITAs issued.

 

[Varunaimar]

Indeed , you can expect a lot more people with the extra 600 points in the coming weeks. I think the Q1 2018 OINP applicants' nominations will hit a peak in May/June, which will undoubtedly put upward pressure on the CRS cutoff. However, I think (hope) that it will be more than offset by a higher frequency of draws during that time period and a higher number of ITAs issued.

That's what I've been hoping for but so far it's been disappointing

 

[everydaydealer]

Has anyone who accepted OINP in March recieved nomination? Or even a change of status on the profile?

Me and my husband accepted OINP on 7th March and submitted all our documents along with the process fees....the status on the profile still says “submitted”.

This waiting and hoping is veryy difficult!

I don't think so. I see in tracker for Feb changed to assessment

 

[shersingh]

That is, assuming they want to meet this target. They could choose not to.

Another possibility is that they overshot the targets for 2017, and now compensating by reducing intake.