Ray of Hope - 84th Draw

[shettyskumar]

Few of us pointing that number of people joining at 430+ are increasing always and number of people improving their score to 450+ also on the rise thus the CRS will not go near to the last year Lows. I have written about this on Ray of Hope 81, let me tell you again my view.

If the pool was always getting populated then the total number between 430 to 440 would have been very high by now! You are not considering dynamic behavior of Express Entry pool. As new people entering the pool, many profiles also getting excluded & down graded (expired profile, expired language test, age increase, withdrawn application etc.). So pool composition at 10 points ranges between 400 to 430 are quite similar last many weeks. 430 to 440 also pretty much same since last November. It will take only couple of back to back draws to flush out these people.

Now come to the mater that people with high score, 440+ are eating up ITAs thus cutoff is not going down. It is very unlikely that number of fresh applicants with CRS 440+ within two weeks can be as high as 3000. Then how come it is increasing? Obviously candidates from lower ranges improving their 1st language abilities and also adding 2nd language and higher education. They are also spending extra money to add spouse education and language result. Evidence of that is the 83rd draw where tie breaker rule applied to candidate who created profile back in May, 2017. Obviously that candidate had lesser points at the beginning and crawled his way up to 440+ range.

We all know these processes of improving CRS score are expensive and demand extra effort and time! Then why do people do this? Because immigration systems all over the world are quite unpredictable and IRCC is no different. People are scared what if IRCC brings a change and makes it difficult, what if they stop taking people, so much uncertainty in people's mind. When IRCC started to reduce the number of ITAs, people got more anxious and started to put their highest possible effort to increase their score, and that contributed CRS cutoff go to above 450 at the end part of last year. Naturally every one wants to get ahead of others, no matter what it takes.

In 2018 IRCC need to conduct regular biweekly draws and invite 3000+ folks every time if they want to achieve the target and we already have seen the increase of ITAs from 2750 to 3000, I am sure it will surge to record number very soon. Once they start inviting more folks, downward pressure on CRS cutoff will mount. When CRS cutoff will start to show signs of getting down, people will be much relaxed and happy to wait for their turn. Then the upper ranges will not fill up as it is filling up now and cutoff will go more down. In between back to back draws will do a lot of magic too! Two back to back draws with 3500+ ITAs will clear more than 7000 folks within 7 days! I don't think many people will be bothered to go through the hassle of retaking IELTS for CLB 9 band or learn french when they will see ITAs coming down to them very soon.

I am sure we are going to witness similar scenario like last year in upcoming months when CRS may go to record low and ITA number to record high of 4000.

Good Luck to everyone, May the Ray of Hope always shine bright!

Few of us pointing that number of people joining at 430+ are increasing always and number of people improving their score to 450+ also on the rise thus the CRS will not go near to the last year Lows. I have written about this on Ray of Hope 81, let me tell you again my view.

If the pool was always getting populated then the total number between 430 to 440 would have been very high by now! You are not considering dynamic behavior of Express Entry pool. As new people entering the pool, many profiles also getting excluded & down graded (expired profile, expired language test, age increase, withdrawn application etc.). So pool composition at 10 points ranges between 400 to 430 are quite similar last many weeks. 430 to 440 also pretty much same since last November. It will take only couple of back to back draws to flush out these people.

Now come to the mater that people with high score, 440+ are eating up ITAs thus cutoff is not going down. It is very unlikely that number of fresh applicants with CRS 440+ within two weeks can be as high as 3000. Then how come it is increasing? Obviously candidates from lower ranges improving their 1st language abilities and also adding 2nd language and higher education. They are also spending extra money to add spouse education and language result. Evidence of that is the 83rd draw where tie breaker rule applied to candidate who created profile back in May, 2017. Obviously that candidate had lesser points at the beginning and crawled his way up to 440+ range.

We all know these processes of improving CRS score are expensive and demand extra effort and time! Then why do people do this? Because immigration systems all over the world are quite unpredictable and IRCC is no different. People are scared what if IRCC brings a change and makes it difficult, what if they stop taking people, so much uncertainty in people's mind. When IRCC started to reduce the number of ITAs, people got more anxious and started to put their highest possible effort to increase their score, and that contributed CRS cutoff go to above 450 at the end part of last year. Naturally every one wants to get ahead of others, no matter what it takes.

In 2018 IRCC need to conduct regular biweekly draws and invite 3000+ folks every time if they want to achieve the target and we already have seen the increase of ITAs from 2750 to 3000, I am sure it will surge to record number very soon. Once they start inviting more folks, downward pressure on CRS cutoff will mount. When CRS cutoff will start to show signs of getting down, people will be much relaxed and happy to wait for their turn. Then the upper ranges will not fill up as it is filling up now and cutoff will go more down. In between back to back draws will do a lot of magic too! Two back to back draws with 3500+ ITAs will clear more than 7000 folks within 7 days! I don't think many people will be bothered to go through the hassle of retaking IELTS for CLB 9 band or learn french when they will see ITAs coming down to them very soon.

I am sure we are going to witness similar scenario like last year in upcoming months when CRS may go to record low and ITA number to record high of 4000.

Good Luck to everyone, May the Ray of Hope always shine bright!

Beautiful analysis ,, Thanks a lot

 

[kanu]

If you are not claiming points for foreign education, remove it from education history and mention it in your personal history. Your Canadian master's degree is more than enough, so you should leave just this one in your education history.

Good luck!

Hi,
So as I have an ECA assessment of my master's degree only so should I remove all other education from my EE profile and only keep Master's degree there?
Where is the personal history tab? I guess this will be after I get an ITA right?
Thanks

 

[vensak]

Sheesh check that confidence, you never know maybe 993 isn't enough

Seriously though, how did you get an OINP with a score under 400? Was this from last year when they sent those out?

1. He could have lost points because of his age (that is an exception from OINP rules)
2. He could have got NOI during the small window when they were issuing to certain NOC under 400
3. He could be French stream

 

[khan.omar23]

check the WES website for degree equivalency. Also, what's your IELTS score?

Thanks. Had already tried the WES degree equivalency tool. It doesn't help. My IELTS score is R8, W7, S7.5 L8.

 

[khan.omar23]

Can anyone tell me if a one-year part-time post-graduate diploma course will be considered for points. Or only a full-time course is given points?

 

[trcosta]

I always tell my students that the results is proportional to the hours they study. They just think that 40 hours of lessons is enough!

Oh I wish it was true... IMHO, it takes almost 40 hours just to understand how IELTS works.

 

[vensak]

Can anyone tell me if a one-year part-time post-graduate diploma course will be considered for points. Or only a full-time course is given points?

Technically it does not matter if you did distance learning, weekend learning or workdays attendance. What matters is how is it assessed in your ECA.

 

[zagcollins]

Hi Guys,

For filling up the express entry application portal, in the travel history what should be the correct answer for the below case:

Travel taken to country X.

Flight flew from origin on the 19th, and arrived on the destination (country X) on 20th.

So while filling it up, should I choose 19th? Or 20th? for start of the trip

Thanks

as per immigration stamp on passport.

 

[premchandar.au]

If the score is 441 in the next draw - what could be tie breaker date

 

[Jakilee]

If the score is 441 in the next draw - what could be tie breaker date

January because I am December

 

[h1b2pr]

Is there any possibility of CRS coming down to 410 this year?

Let's do some math and check that...
On Jan 18 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16200
On Jan 24, candidates got picked for ITA with CRS 444: 2750
On Feb 1 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16808

Looking at above data, even after giving out 2750 ITAs the number of candidates with CRS above 410 has increased by 608.
So if they keep giving out about 3000 ITAS biweekly which is 78000 ITAs in a year, the CRS will never come down below 410 (forget 410, now I think CRS won't even have to come below 440).
Hence instead of living in the wonderland of dream world, working on the pathways to improve CRS might help.
Good luck!

 

[prasad_techguy]

It is high time that CIC introduce a nominal fee for Creating a profile and entering the Pool. Those who value an ITA would never mind spending the extra bucks and those fools who don't value an ITA will stop wasting the ITA's

I second that. Also, there must be some penalty when someone rejects ITA.

 

[Jakilee]

Let's do some math and check that...
On Jan 18 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16200
On Jan 24, candidates got picked for ITA with CRS 444: 2750
On Feb 1 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16808

Looking at above data, even after giving out 2750 ITAs the number of candidates with CRS above 410 has increased by 608.
So if they keep giving out about 3000 ITAS biweekly which is 78000 ITAs in a year, the CRS will never come down below 410 (forget 410, now I think CRS won't even have to come below 440).
Hence instead of living in the wonderland of dream world, working on the pathways to improve CRS might help.
Good luck!

The brutal honesty in this response is underrated.

 

[Contactnisha]

Only a back to back draw can shed some hope

Let's do some math and check that...
On Jan 18 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16200
On Jan 24, candidates got picked for ITA with CRS 444: 2750
On Feb 1 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16808

Looking at above data, even after giving out 2750 ITAs the number of candidates with CRS above 410 has increased by 608.
So if they keep giving out about 3000 ITAS biweekly which is 78000 ITAs in a year, the CRS will never come down below 410 (forget 410, now I think CRS won't even have to come below 440).
Hence instead of living in the wonderland of dream world, working on the pathways to improve CRS might help.
Good luck!

 

[flyingpbandj]

you can keep it in Edu history and specify that it's non-ECA.

Thanks! That's what I was leaning to. Should I still include it in the LOE, or is it expected that I don't include anything related to it if I mark it as non-ECA?

Thanks again.