Ray of Hope - 84th Draw

[ShahidWS]

Although there has been a shocking high number of people jumping into the pool that we have observed so far. Having said that if cic has to meet their annual quota they will have to increase the drawing size and hence crs will come down to at least near about 425 at minimum and this is absolute certain.

Also, it is almost not feasible for people sitting on 430's to increase any more score(without spouse)because they might have done their best already. But yes 420's and 410's can try.

According to my sane view, I think we will not see raining itas before mid April cause by then oinp should be able to fill the first part of their yearly quotas with high crs candidates.

Any idea what is the annual quota CIC is looking at this year through express entry? And how many does that differ from how many CIC invited last year?

 

[flyingpbandj]

If the home country is not the country of residence, then the PCC should be obtained after the last date of departure from that country. Only for the current country of residence, you can get the PCC beforehand.

Interesting... because of https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/medical-police/police-certificates/about.html:

If you need a police certificate from a country or territory and are currently living there, or received the police certificate before leaving, the police certificate must be issued within six months before you apply.

I thought that the PCC would be valid as long as we submit our e-APR before 6 months pass since they issue the PCC... So I guess we have to wait until she's back in Canada, and apply for a PCC via a representative? (that's how her country works). Hope it doesn't take too long because she is coming back 15 days before our deadline for submission :/

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi @abhishek_89

We are really blessed to have such a selfless & genuine guy like you here giving us realistic datas & helping us to keep our dreams live. Although you already got your PR, still you are helping us to know the ita math game to your best, there is no doubt you are a good human being. Thanks on behalf of all the people here in ROH fans.

About the chances, I reckon a lot of us is stuck in the mid 430's, like 435, so according to the current scenario when do you think at maximum we can get the ITA if the rate of competition keep rising remain like this? Lets assume 3000 ITAS every fortnight draws. Thanks again

My predictions are somewhat accurate because the average intake is calculated based on EE pool composition data closer to the actual draw date. So if I start calculating average intake based on current data for May or June, it won't help much. Also, a 3 week gap draw or a 1 week gap draw can change a lot of things down the line. In the same way, a increase/decrease in the number of ITAs issued too can hamper futuristic predictions. Another factor which hampers my predictions are the numbers stuck at each individual CRS score between 431-440 as the data reveals only applicants stuck between a 10 point range.

So considering all this it is practically a useless effort predicting far ahead.

But as you ask, based on all these variables, my best guess would be May/June for CRS 435 cut off if CIC strictly continues 3000 ITAs every 2 weeks.

 

[abhishek_89]

Any chances for 439 in the next draw?

Only if the next draw happens on Feb 14, we can expect ITA with CRS 439. If the next draw is on Feb 21, expect cut off to be 440/441.

 

[abhishek_89]

Are we continuing the same thread for the next draw as well or we have a different thread @abhishek_89

After each draw, a new thread is created. This one is for the next draw (84th draw).

 

[jessekay]

My predictions are somewhat accurate because the average intake is calculated based on EE pool composition data closer to the actual draw date. So if I start calculating average intake based on current data for May or June, it won't help much. Also, a 3 week gap draw or a 1 week gap draw can change a lot of things down the line. In the same way, a increase/decrease in the number of ITAs issued too can hamper futuristic predictions. Another factor which hampers my predictions are the numbers stuck at each individual CRS score between 431-440 as the data reveals only applicants stuck between a 10 point range.

So considering all this it is practically a useless effort predicting far ahead.

But as you ask, based on all these variables, my best guess would be May/June for CRS 435 cut off if CIC strictly continues 3000 ITAs every 2 weeks.

We should consider the fact, that not all at 442 might have got flushed out in the last draw, owing to tie breaker.

 

[abhishek_89]

We should consider the fact, that not all at 442 might have got flushed out in the last draw, owing to tie breaker.

Yes, I have considered that 95% of the folks at CRS 442 on Feb 7th are still in the pool.

 

[abhishek_89]

Let's do some math and check that...
On Jan 18 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16200
On Jan 24, candidates got picked for ITA with CRS 444: 2750
On Feb 1 no. of candidates in the pool with CRS above 410: 16808

Looking at above data, even after giving out 2750 ITAs the number of candidates with CRS above 410 has increased by 608.
So if they keep giving out about 3000 ITAS biweekly which is 78000 ITAs in a year, the CRS will never come down below 410 (forget 410, now I think CRS won't even have to come below 440).
Hence instead of living in the wonderland of dream world, working on the pathways to improve CRS might help.
Good luck!

I agree 410 with the current trend of ITAs and gap between the draws is a distant dream but if CIC strictly continues with 3000 ITAs and 2 week gap draws below 440 is a reality.

 

[SonnyG]

hi all, i have crs of 325. i know there are no chances in express entry.(dont want to give ielts again too)
just wanted to know chances of getting pnp
noc 2171/2173/2283 software engineering
has anyone got pnp with crs 300-350 and in above noc.

Hi Varun, good IELTS score do wonders, trust me. please use cic crs scoring tool and perform pnc toidentify whats the max u can score and work hard towards your target. don't keep false hopes on pnp at low score. you can also look for trade or business class pr app. good luck.

 

[abhishek_89]

Can some one share the link for ROH 85 .I could not find it

The 83rd draw happened on Feb 7th, so we are all still waiting for the 84th draw which could happen on Feb 14th or 21st. So all the discussion will take place in this thread (ROH 84) till the 84th draw happens.

Once the 84th draw happens, ROH 85 would be created.

 

[SonnyG]

Few of us pointing that number of people joining at 430+ are increasing always and number of people improving their score to 450+ also on the rise thus the CRS will not go near to the last year Lows. I have written about this on Ray of Hope 81, let me tell you again my view.

If the pool was always getting populated then the total number between 430 to 440 would have been very high by now! You are not considering dynamic behavior of Express Entry pool. As new people entering the pool, many profiles also getting excluded & down graded (expired profile, expired language test, age increase, withdrawn application etc.). So pool composition at 10 points ranges between 400 to 430 are quite similar last many weeks. 430 to 440 also pretty much same since last November. It will take only couple of back to back draws to flush out these people.

Now come to the mater that people with high score, 440+ are eating up ITAs thus cutoff is not going down. It is very unlikely that number of fresh applicants with CRS 440+ within two weeks can be as high as 3000. Then how come it is increasing? Obviously candidates from lower ranges improving their 1st language abilities and also adding 2nd language and higher education. They are also spending extra money to add spouse education and language result. Evidence of that is the 83rd draw where tie breaker rule applied to candidate who created profile back in May, 2017. Obviously that candidate had lesser points at the beginning and crawled his way up to 440+ range.

We all know these processes of improving CRS score are expensive and demand extra effort and time! Then why do people do this? Because immigration systems all over the world are quite unpredictable and IRCC is no different. People are scared what if IRCC brings a change and makes it difficult, what if they stop taking people, so much uncertainty in people's mind. When IRCC started to reduce the number of ITAs, people got more anxious and started to put their highest possible effort to increase their score, and that contributed CRS cutoff go to above 450 at the end part of last year. Naturally every one wants to get ahead of others, no matter what it takes.

In 2018 IRCC need to conduct regular biweekly draws and invite 3000+ folks every time if they want to achieve the target and we already have seen the increase of ITAs from 2750 to 3000, I am sure it will surge to record number very soon. Once they start inviting more folks, downward pressure on CRS cutoff will mount. When CRS cutoff will start to show signs of getting down, people will be much relaxed and happy to wait for their turn. Then the upper ranges will not fill up as it is filling up now and cutoff will go more down. In between back to back draws will do a lot of magic too! Two back to back draws with 3500+ ITAs will clear more than 7000 folks within 7 days! I don't think many people will be bothered to go through the hassle of retaking IELTS for CLB 9 band or learn french when they will see ITAs coming down to them very soon.

I am sure we are going to witness similar scenario like last year in upcoming months when CRS may go to record low and ITA number to record high of 4000.

Good Luck to everyone, May the Ray of Hope always shine bright!

assuming your prediction for ITS nearing 4000 is right, still CRS cutoff will stuck around 437. at 3000 ITAs we have CRS 441, what do you accept from future draws?

 

[abhishek_89]

So guys got Express Entry - Provincial/Territorial Interest Letter on February 9, 2018 07:05:06 p.m. EST.
I am getting my spouse to give IELTS in March so hoping my score to increase to around 450. Currently sitting at 438 with NOC 2282 and submitted my profile on Jan 29, 2018. Does the application fee of 1500CAD per application or per person, as I will be taking my spouse and minor kid with me?

1500 CAD is per OINP application not per person.

 

[Kaveh86]

EE Pool stats since IRCC has released this info in March 2017.
https://cubeupload.com/im/gghsxA.jpg

 

[SonnyG]

I have a query related to WES ECA. However, I couldn't find a dedicated thread, hence I'm asking it here. I'm currently sitting at 413 points, and I've done my Bachelor's degree. If I invest one year in a Diploma course, my score will go up to 440.

Now, the one-year diploma I'm considering is not affiliated to University of Mumbai, but is an autonomous part-time diploma course from the college. How can I know if it will be recognised by WES or not, and that I will get points for it?

part time courses are generally not recognised by WES. telling you from personal experience, don't risk relying on that please

 

[premchandar.au]

Only if the next draw happens on Feb 14, we can expect ITA with CRS 439. If the next draw is on Feb 21, expect cut off to be 440/441.

440/441 even with 2750? Possible tie breaker date?