Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[Lala1234]

Guys I think Im fainting, I cant breathe I just want to get the ITA so at least there is not going to be anymore 'hoping' and waiting to know when I will make it to the draw.

I dont care how long it takes after ITA. I just want the assurance that only having the ITA will give me.

Gave IELTS twice. My writing score still came out low even after 2nd attempt. 6.5 It just makes me more disappointed in myself.
Seems like universe is against me. Had I gotten 7 I still would have made it.

Does it make sense to give IELTS again? Im a 445 points.

Nope..you just require some patience and hope buddy

 

[Karnesh]

My exams always go well..its the result that makes blunders

Yep I may be at 465+

Ha ha ha. Lali, I hope you get magic band this time.

 

[Lala1234]

It is just a linear regression model and 458 is just an artifact of historic data. It is just linear regression. So it bound to be rough and incorrect. In this case the model seems under-biased. You probably want to correct for the bias by adding a constant factor to the output.

Here is the dataset I ran it on

table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }
Days ITAs Cut-off
7 2902 468
7 3334 459
14 3508 453
14 3664 447
14 3611 441
7 3884 434
23 3749 441
12 3753 431
7 3923 423
7 3665 415
15 3796 423
13 3687 415
5 3877 413
28 3409 449
14 3202 440
21 3264 441
7 2991 433
14 3035 434
14 2772 435
14 2871 433
14 2801 438
14 2757 436
7 2000 458
7 2750 439
21 2750 452


cut-off = 0.4816750707*#of days - 0.01407997821*# of ITAs + 478.0315437

Slightly less under-biased model. I ran a multiple linear regression since we are trying to correlate 3 variables in the equation. Still not super accurate. Hope this helps.

thanks for your time and effort

 

[Lala1234]

Ha ha ha. Lali, I hope you get magic band this time.

HOPE buddy

 

[Jadee1318]

Guys I think Im fainting, I cant breathe I just want to get the ITA so at least there is not going to be anymore 'hoping' and waiting to know when I will make it to the draw.

I dont care how long it takes after ITA. I just want the assurance that only having the ITA will give me.

Gave IELTS twice. My writing score still came out low even after 2nd attempt. 6.5 It just makes me more disappointed in myself.
Seems like universe is against me. Had I gotten 7 I still would have made it.

Does it make sense to give IELTS again? Im a 445 points.

I know how you feel I'm exhausted with all of this. I feel like I'm on the verge of a nervous breakdown every day at the moment. I just want it to be over.

But you have a great score, I'm sure you will get your ITA in the next couple of rounds!

 

[Raz0r]

I know how you feel I'm exhausted with all of this. I feel like I'm on the verge of a nervous breakdown every day at the moment. I just want it to be over.

But you have a great score, I'm sure you will get your ITA in the next couple of rounds!

Please understand that a result doesn't define anyone. Keep up the hope and fight the good fight. Where there is perseverance, there is hope. I am 101% sure that every deserving individual will get through their ordeal in one way or the other. Never be disheartened. It'll all make sense in the end. Wishing you all the very best.

 

[Jalolo]

Now I feel it was sane to choose the ONIP path

Seriously i second you, praying oinp route takes a smooth exit and some how with the uncertainty with crs scores it seems it wont come down to 430's untill 1st quarter of 2018...soo hope im wrong

 

[Jadee1318]

Please understand that a result doesn't define anyone. Keep up the hope and fight the good fight. Where there is perseverance, there is hope. I am 101% sure that every deserving individual will get through their ordeal in one way or the other. Never be disheartened. It'll all make sense in the end. Wishing you all the very best.

Thank you for your kind words! I will keep on hoping, that's all I can do! I'm just in a particularly stressful situation as I already live here in Canada, I have a life here, a job, an apartment full of stuff. I am very scared that I am about to lose all of that. I just have to find the strength to carry on!

 

[Raz0r]

Guys I think Im fainting, I cant breathe I just want to get the ITA so at least there is not going to be anymore 'hoping' and waiting to know when I will make it to the draw.

I dont care how long it takes after ITA. I just want the assurance that only having the ITA will give me.

Gave IELTS twice. My writing score still came out low even after 2nd attempt. 6.5 It just makes me more disappointed in myself.
Seems like universe is against me. Had I gotten 7 I still would have made it.

Does it make sense to give IELTS again? Im a 445 points.

Take a deep breath and relax. The world is not ending anytime soon. There is more to life than the ITA ordeal. If you are soft enough to get rattled with an ITA scenario then how are you planning to live ahead???? Trust me, I believe you when say that you gave your best on the IELTS. But at times, results are not what we expect them to be. That does not mean we didn't try, it just means that "please try harder". That's all. Please do not lose hope or be disheartened in any way. Things will work out. Please try to give the IELTS once more, I believe with a little more hard work, you can crack the CLB 9/10 ceiling in no time. Wishing you the very best.

 

[Lala1234]

Seriously i second you, praying oinp route takes a smooth exit and some how with the uncertainty with crs scores it seems it wont come down to 430's untill 1st quarter of 2018...soo hope im wrong

True that buddy ,seeing the fluctuations in the CRS draws ,I feel a bit worried and relieved at the same time for my past choice...
Worried for all other mates who are waiting for the scores to lower without a PNP invite and relieved that I had that option and I accepted it on time
Hope all 400+ atleast receive the PNP options

 

[GavinSouthAfrica]

I was so confident in June, then my OINP got messed up and now I'm looking down the barrel at disappointment

 

[Raz0r]

I was so confident in June, then my OINP got messed up and now I'm looking down the barrel at disappointment

You did get in when the OINP re-opened right? Just wanted to understand what is making you disappointed now. Good luck.

 

[Lala1234]

I was so confident in June, then my OINP got messed up and now I'm looking down the barrel at disappointment

Can you kindly explain your situation?

 

[Jalolo]

I was so confident in June, then my OINP got messed up and now I'm looking down the barrel at disappointment

How did you miss OINP ??? But there's one thing ive come to know about the whole cic system. Its designed in a very favourable condusive way. You will get numerous chances now and then just keep the faith all you need to do is be in the pool. They ststem will pull you sooner or later. All the best ur time will be if

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Guys I think Im fainting, I cant breathe I just want to get the ITA so at least there is not going to be anymore 'hoping' and waiting to know when I will make it to the draw.

I dont care how long it takes after ITA. I just want the assurance that only having the ITA will give me.

Gave IELTS twice. My writing score still came out low even after 2nd attempt. 6.5 It just makes me more disappointed in myself.
Seems like universe is against me. Had I gotten 7 I still would have made it.

Does it make sense to give IELTS again? Im a 445 points.

well, lets say you have to trade between waiting another 1 month at maximum for your ITA and take the pain of going through the entire IELTS process again, and needless to say all the preparation and registration fees as a hefty opportunity cost in addition to that.

Clearly, by the time you get your IELTS results, you will be getting the ITA in the meantime. So, undoubtedly, it is theoritically futile to sit for IELTS with that crs score. I guess what you need to have right now is a little patience . Best of luck mate...