Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[delhitoottawa]

Hello all. Have been a silent spectator of the ROH threads. The info and encouragement provided on these threads has been most useful.

I have just about completed my ECA and IELTS and plan to create my profile soon. Expect to have a CRS below 410 due to age and education equivalency. Have maxed out IELTS and there's no scope of further improvement in CRS- unless I learn French from scratch.

I would like to evaluate the PNP options. In this regard, grateful if some one could clarify if NOI for OINP is issued only for candidates with NOCs in ICT or its open across NOCs.

Look forward to any inputs. Thanks.

 

[santhosh156]

When did you enter the express entry pool?
Nobody in the express entry pool can be stuck with a CRS of 421 for 1 year now as there were draws in April and May which would have gotten them an ITA.

I got an ITA on May-31 draw when the minimum score was 413. Due to improper guidance of my consultant and unaware of the help in this forum , declined my ITA by Aug-29 because I didn't receive the FBI clearance within 90 days of provided time. Highly regret that decision till now and waiting for the scores to drop to 420s

 

[closingtime]

Hello all. Have been a silent spectator of the ROH threads. The info and encouragement provided on these threads has been most useful.

I have just about completed my ECA and IELTS and plan to create my profile soon. Expect to have a CRS below 410 due to age and education equivalency. Have maxed out IELTS and there's no scope of further improvement in CRS- unless I learn French from scratch.

I would like to evaluate the PNP options. In this regard, grateful if some one could clarify if NOI for OINP is issued only for candidates with NOCs in ICT or its open across NOCs.

Look forward to any inputs. Thanks.

Historically it has been open to all NOCs within these parameters "The OINP only accept occupations in NOC skill level 0 or skill type A or B."

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/prodconsum/groups/csc/@oipp/documents/document/oi_en_oinp_faq.pdf

You probably owe it to yourself to read the above .pdf, as it will answer all your questions.


I am looking at this route myself, for much the same reasons as you are. Being the ripe old age of 35 ( and not being able to find any company that can do an ECA for qualifications that a five minute google search could find the Canadian equivalent for ) , luckily ( in some ways ) my NOC is ICT. There is an OINP thread in the PNP forums that will probably be quite helpful to you.

 

[Samroze]

Here we go again!!
Gosh!
Hanging on a thread..

So anyone here suggest PNP would be the best way to go for a score of 423?
Or should I just hang on till feb 2018.

Hang on by feb you will definitely be in.
If cic is merciful then maybe in the third draw of Jan.
Will be in the same boat @423 from Jan 19th until then I'm at 428.
Praying for huge draws in Jan

 

[Samroze]

For everyone that is feeling disheartened by the high score today just remember that a score of 452 would not have even gotten you an ITA once last year.
We are all in a much better place today than we would have been a year ago and it can only get better.
With the new quotas for 2018 the scores are sure to drop, Canada needs us as much as we need it.
Our time will come!

I will see you all again next week!

#letsgotocanada

One more assurity is the tie-breaker rule. Cic definitely know that to fill the required immigrants they will need to issue more ITA's and eventually there will be a drop in crs. But the old method without a tie-breaker would need them to stop at a specific crs not the number of ITA's as there are hundreds with the same CRS in between 401 to 430. Finding the way out they started this tie-breaking policy which clearly indicates that crs will drop for sure below 430 infact it might go below 410 as well.
Time is the only constraint. Keep your hopes alive everybody
2018 is the year of hopes..lets welcome it with positivity and celebrate our success together

 

[sinou39]

I find this fascinating, I tried to do something similar with all of the data from the last two years to see if I could make some predictions.

what is the significance of the +458 in your findings ?

It is just a linear regression model and 458 is just an artifact of historic data. It is just linear regression. So it bound to be rough and incorrect. In this case the model seems under-biased. You probably want to correct for the bias by adding a constant factor to the output.

Here is the dataset I ran it on

table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }
Days ITAs Cut-off
7 2902 468
7 3334 459
14 3508 453
14 3664 447
14 3611 441
7 3884 434
23 3749 441
12 3753 431
7 3923 423
7 3665 415
15 3796 423
13 3687 415
5 3877 413
28 3409 449
14 3202 440
21 3264 441
7 2991 433
14 3035 434
14 2772 435
14 2871 433
14 2801 438
14 2757 436
7 2000 458
7 2750 439
21 2750 452


cut-off = 0.4816750707*#of days - 0.01407997821*# of ITAs + 478.0315437

Slightly less under-biased model. I ran a multiple linear regression since we are trying to correlate 3 variables in the equation. Still not super accurate. Hope this helps.

 

[sinou39]

Based on the above equation, if the next draw happens after a 4-week or 28-day gap (on Jan 3rd, 2018) with 2750 ITAs, the CRS cut off would be 445 which is not possible!

It's not meant to be super accurate. Just very rough and the model seems under-biased.

 

[Jadee1318]

438 and desperate..

Right there with ya!

 

[walk_2_canada]

Back to back ♪♫♬ Back to back ♪♫♬

 

[closingtime]

It is just a linear regression model and 458 is just an artifact of historic data. It is just linear regression. So it bound to be rough and incorrect. In this case the model seems under-biased. You probably want to correct for the bias by adding a constant factor to the output.

Here is the dataset I ran it on

table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }
Days ITAs Cut-off
7 2902 468
7 3334 459
14 3508 453
14 3664 447
14 3611 441
7 3884 434
23 3749 441
12 3753 431
7 3923 423
7 3665 415
15 3796 423
13 3687 415
5 3877 413
28 3409 449
14 3202 440
21 3264 441
7 2991 433
14 3035 434
14 2772 435
14 2871 433
14 2801 438
14 2757 436
7 2000 458
7 2750 439
21 2750 452


cut-off = 0.4816750707*#of days - 0.01407997821*# of ITAs + 478.0315437

Slightly less under-biased model. I ran a multiple linear regression since we are trying to correlate 3 variables in the equation. Still not super accurate. Hope this helps.

I would love to have all the historic distributions because what I have tended to notice anecdotally, but do not have all the data, is that the scores seem to rise roughly towards the end of each year and then fall slightly ( but not markedly ) prior to the PNPs re-opening, at which point, March April time, the scores seem to drop quite rapidly.

Which is interesting, if you consider the economics involved.

But I need the historic distributions of CRS scores to see if my line of thinking makes any sense.

 

[shingariisha]

Its a bad luck for me i am at 451 , Better luck next time fingers crossed .

 

[Tan29]

Hang on by feb you will definitely be in.
If cic is merciful then maybe in the third draw of Jan.
Will be in the same boat @423 from Jan 19th until then I'm at 428.
Praying for huge draws in Jan

Cheers!
Can jan get here any quicker..the wait is just exhausting.
Fingers and toes crossed.

All the best mate!

 

[Histrionics]

Going by the intake numbers, I am assuming that the score will fall in the next draw but the draw itself won't happen before Dec 20.

The figures might improve starting Jan 03 which is when the first draw for next year should take place unless there is a longer vacation period that I am not aware of.

 

[indcan86]

considering the last year trend, the next draw should take the ITA no to 3000

 

[Lala1234]

Will do! How did your exam go?

What score are you at if you get the covered CLB9?

My exams always go well..its the result that makes blunders

Yep I may be at 465+