Ray of Hope 62nd Draw

[ivand]

I hope the draw will be tomorrow! I cannot even think about anything else but the draw!

 

[tjsecondtry]

My gut runs counter. Since the changes in June are supposed to help them get more of the things they desire, why would they have 3 draws before the change?

 

[ivand]

My gut runs counter. Since the changes in June are supposed to help them get more of the things they desire, why would they have 3 draws before the change?

Because in this case they would have stopped the EE draws back in 2016 when they had announced the changes

 

[canada_dreamer]

My gut runs counter. Since the changes in June are supposed to help them get more of the things they desire, why would they have 3 draws before the change?

When they had a change similar to this in November, they couldn't do a draw for 4 weeks due to technical difficulties and people not updating their profiles. They might wanna do a draw in June before the new changes take effect just to be on the safe side. I don't believe they want to raise the crs cut-off intentionally. They've done more draws and sent out more ITA's than ever before. If they wanted to raise CRS cut-off, they wouldn't have done 3 back to back draws in April. Its just a simple equation of supply and demand. The more people join the pool, the higher CRS cut-off goes. The norm is to do 2 draws a month ever since EE system launched. Also, CRS is lower than ever before.

 

[xibalban]

guys,

updated CRS posted so far.. new members update this sheet .. so we can get summarized info..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2eqBFLc_LKowSIrBZagMFQ48WO1J6W1XN_BoaQg0Fc/edit?usp=sharing

Oh, I missed this post. Thanks!!

 

[karthik2479]

guys,

updated CRS posted so far.. new members update this sheet .. so we can get summarized info..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2eqBFLc_LKowSIrBZagMFQ48WO1J6W1XN_BoaQg0Fc/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for the spreadsheet - what is the second column for the percentages - I was trying something similar using the last published distribution and the numbers are much different. Where are you getting the 15k from?

 

[ivancabrer]

Thanks for the spreadsheet - what is the second column for the percentages - I was trying something similar using the last published distribution and the numbers are much different. Where are you getting the 15k from?

Sorry, my bad.
I didn't thought it saved these changes, I'm not used to Google docs
You can delete these two rightmost columns. I just took into account from 380+, as a personal exercise, not to save it in the spreadsheet.

 

[iamxty]

My gut feelings tell me there will be 3 more draws before the new changes kick in. Two in May and and one on June 1. Most likely there will be a 3 week gap in June.

Still hoping for this to happen:

62nd draw May 17 at 413-415
63rd draw May 24/25 at 408-410 (expecting ITA on this draw!)

There will be another draw in June, maybe May 31 or June 1, before the update to the siblings/francophones points on June 6.

 

[ivand]

Guys, I calculated the probability of the draw date. Please see the tab "Draws" in https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2eqBFLc_LKowSIrBZagMFQ48WO1J6W1XN_BoaQg0Fc/edit#gid=30154188

Well, it's 82% probability that the draw will be tomorrow based on the usual day of the draws.

Also, tomorrow is the most probable day for the draw based on the average gap between the draws.

 

[xibalban]

Guys, I calculated the probability of the draw date. Please see the tab "Draws" in https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2eqBFLc_LKowSIrBZagMFQ48WO1J6W1XN_BoaQg0Fc/edit#gid=30154188

Well, it's 82% probability that the draw will be tomorrow based on the usual day of the draws.

Also, tomorrow is the most probable day for the draw based on the average gap between the draws.

Guys like you will make Canada proud!!

 

[xibalban]

Exactly 12 hours to go guys!! I'll return after 11 hours to spend an hour to read the "unread posts", that piles up.

Today's cut-off: CRS 408. Call me biased and selfish, as that's my score.

See you fellas, and good luck to us all!!

 

[gotodxb]

bump

fixed..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2eqBFLc_LKowSIrBZagMFQ48WO1J6W1XN_BoaQg0Fc/edit?usp=sharing

 

[alfred0]

crs 413 here

 

[fmh]

I think I've read on their web page, it's there somewhere that qouta is 6000 but this includes 3 categories, 3rd one is human capital stream. They don't say how many is for each category. And this is trough the whole year so I wouldn't worry too much about scores going up because of this.

Their quota is 5200 out of which 2700 is reserved for express entry profile candidates.

 

[Sudhar25]

I'm really not trying to be a party popper, there's nothing I would love more than getting a direct ITA without having to apply to the OINP. It's just an observation. If they force the score to go up too much, we'll have to do one of the following:
-Apply to the PNP.
-Wait for their quota to run out and then the scores should continue to go down.

Can anybody tell me the OINP quota for this year?

This is dead lock between CIC and OINP i guess. OINP not budging to go sub 400. CIC doesn't have enough people above 400. My questions are what if OINP gets sub 400 in coming months?say 375 and above? What will happen to their above 400CRS invites? Could they withdraw those invites as it is not picked nor will be picked even after six months as above 400CRS candidates are looking for direct ITA and keeping OINP as reserve.?