Ray of hope 59th draw!

[arrayofhope]

hello everyone! i have been a regular reader of ray of hope thread since past many months. just entered the pool with crs 435. there is a problem/confusion i m facing and although its not directly related to ray of hope but i m posting it here because this is the most active thread with many experienced members.
i am a married woman with two children aged 2 and 5. i have mentioned in the EE application that i am married but my spouse will not accompany me. i have done this because he does not plan to accompany me for now and also that applying with him drops my score by 20 points.i want to ask that will this effect the PR-ship of my children if i ever(hopefully) get an ITA? do children get PR automatically and immediately even if one of their parents receives it or do i have to apply along my spouse for getting pr for my children? as i cant leave them behind.
please be gracious to reply! i ll be more than grateful.

Hey Masumah,

I don't think it will be an issue as long as you mention your spouse and children under family details. There was a person in this forum who wrote about how he forgot to include his child in his application, got his PR but had issues getting it for his son. His son had to get a visitor/study permit etc.

You will need to show proof of funds for your kids and spouse even if he/she is not accompanying you. But you might also want to talk to a good lawyer just to be sure. There are many who can give you legal advice for about $200 to 300. Some lawyers even provide free initial consultation.

 

[Amaljohan]

Dang snake predicted 434 CRS and was off by 3 points

Your predictions are very accurate buddy and when it was 434 none of them have predicted a higher score and you did. I have started to follow your predictions and i would like to hear your prediction for 59th draw.
Cheers

 

[rocky789]

Really hopeful this time. Waiting for WES.

 

[Confused_oldman]

Got into pool at 430. Added spouse, down to 405. Thankfully got her WES few days back.
Current CRS 413. Not hopeful at all this draw. She will take her IELTS this week, to try and bump up score for next draw at least.

 

[hitesh.mulchandani]

At 428 and the ray oh hope got stronger and brighter with the last draw. I am in Saudi for a couple of months and my family is back in India. Assuming that I receive an ITA in this upcoming draw, can I get my medicals done in KSA and my family does it in India? I know that I will have 90 days to submit the application, but I want to save time.

 

[Maverick28]

At 428 and the ray oh hope got stronger and brighter with the last draw. I am in Saudi for a couple of months and my family is back in India. Assuming that I receive an ITA in this upcoming draw, can I get my medicals done in KSA and my family does it in India? I know that I will have 90 days to submit the application, but I want to save time.

I think your family can do their medicals in India. This should be an advantage of having an authorized panel of physician in every country.

 

[Confused_oldman]

With yesterday's report release, we have a better way to predict future draws than before. The previous RoH threads were mostly shooting in the dark.
Data about CRS in pool > 400 on 29th March.

601-1200 124
451-600 422
441-450 137
431-440 1,927
421-430 2,976
411-420 3,119
401-410 3,567

ITA's issued on 5th April - 3753 ITA's at CRS 431. So, 3753-(124+422+137+1927)=1143 entered the pool in the last 7 days, ie. 163.28 people per day.

Assuming next draw happens on 19th April, i.e 14 days gap,
1) 164*14=2282 people >= 431 CRS score.
2) Assuming 3750 ITA's, 3750-2282=1468 people < 431 will get invited.
3) *From report, 421-430 band has 1927 people. Assuming 165 people per day get added anew during these 14 days in this band, we have 2310 people.
This would mean on draw date, 1927+2310=4237 people in 421-430 band.
4) So there will be 4237+2282=6519 people with >=421 points on draw date. This number is greater than normal ITA's issued.
5) So, assuming equal spread between 421-430, those in 427-430 band will be (4237/10)*4 = 1695(round off).
6) So we have > 431 = 2282 + >=427 = 1685. This gives 3967 ITA's at 427 cut off.

Note - At point 3) i have assumed number of people joining at > 431 is equal to those joining at 421-430. This might not be true, as > 431 means all of the entrants till 1200.

So, i predict 427 at previous ITA levels , approx, 3750.

 

[hitesh.mulchandani]

With yesterday's report release, we have a better way to predict future draws than before. The previous RoH threads were mostly shooting in the dark.
Data about CRS in pool > 400 on 29th March.

601-1200 124
451-600 422
441-450 137
431-440 1,927
421-430 2,976
411-420 3,119
401-410 3,567

ITA's issued on 5th April - 3753 ITA's at CRS 431. So, 3753-(124+422+137+1927)=1143 entered the pool in the last 7 days, ie. 163.28 people per day.

Assuming next draw happens on 19th April, i.e 14 days gap,
1) 164*14=2282 people >= 431 CRS score.
2) Assuming 3750 ITA's, 3750-2282=1468 people < 431 will get invited.
3) *From report, 421-430 band has 1927 people. Assuming 165 people per day get added anew during these 14 days in this band, we have 2310 people.
This would mean on draw date, 1927+2310=4237 people in 421-430 band.
4) So there will be 4237+2282=6519 people with >=421 points on draw date. This number is greater than normal ITA's issued.
5) So, assuming equal spread between 421-430, those in 427-430 band will be (4237/10)*4 = 1695(round off).
6) So we have > 431 = 2282 + >=427 = 1685. This gives 3967 ITA's at 427 cut off.

Note - At point 3) i have assumed number of people joining at > 431 is equal to those joining at 421-430. This might not be true, as > 431 means all of the entrants till 1200.

So, i predict 427 at previous ITA levels , approx, 3750.

Your calculations might be correct, and if the number of ITA's issued remains around 3.7K to 4K we might see a score drop to 426 or 427.

 

[hitesh.mulchandani]

I think your family can do their medicals in India. This should be an advantage of having an authorized panel of physician in every country.

Thanks, I want to be sure on this so once I receive the ITA, I will check with CiC. Further my spouse has a valid work permit for Canada which has been issued less than a year ago and her medicals were done sometime in May - June last year. I believe that the medicals are valid for one year (if i am not wrong) so will she have to get her medicals done again?

 

[ajkidwai]

New Invites CRS Invites CRS
Entries per day 14 days New Pool 19-Apr 21 days New Pool 26-Apr
95 1330 2420 423 1995 1755 425
125 1750 2000 425 2625 1125 427
150 2100 1650 426 3150 600 429
175 2450 1300 427 3675 75 431

My prediction based on a 2 week and 3 week draw, and range of people entering per day Assumption is the draw of 3750 ITAS.

 

[ajkidwai]

With yesterday's report release, we have a better way to predict future draws than before. The previous RoH threads were mostly shooting in the dark.
Data about CRS in pool > 400 on 29th March.

601-1200 124
451-600 422
441-450 137
431-440 1,927
421-430 2,976
411-420 3,119
401-410 3,567

ITA's issued on 5th April - 3753 ITA's at CRS 431. So, 3753-(124+422+137+1927)=1143 entered the pool in the last 7 days, ie. 163.28 people per day.

Assuming next draw happens on 19th April, i.e 14 days gap,
1) 164*14=2282 people >= 431 CRS score.
2) Assuming 3750 ITA's, 3750-2282=1468 people < 431 will get invited.
3) *From report, 421-430 band has 1927 people. Assuming 165 people per day get added anew during these 14 days in this band, we have 2310 people.
This would mean on draw date, 1927+2310=4237 people in 421-430 band.
4) So there will be 4237+2282=6519 people with >=421 points on draw date. This number is greater than normal ITA's issued.
5) So, assuming equal spread between 421-430, those in 427-430 band will be (4237/10)*4 = 1695(round off).
6) So we have > 431 = 2282 + >=427 = 1685. This gives 3967 ITA's at 427 cut off.

Note - At point 3) i have assumed number of people joining at > 431 is equal to those joining at 421-430. This might not be true, as > 431 means all of the entrants till 1200.

So, i predict 427 at previous ITA levels , approx, 3750.

Buddy 164 per day between 421-430 looks quite high. compare 2015 and 2017 table, the difference isnt much high. What happens is some profiles expire, some get better results. But taking it 100% more than existing on March 29th 2017 is being extremely conservative.

Further, 1927 people were added between 431-440 in 4 weeks. On 1st March the Draw was 434 and March 24, the draw was 441. It took 29 days for 1927 to get accumulated between this range which means 68 ppl per day. Between March 29th and April 5, there were 1143 ppl added in the group, that is 95 per day...

 

[hitesh.mulchandani]

Buddy 164 per day between 421-430 looks quite high. compare 2015 and 2017 table, the difference isnt much high. What happens is some profiles expire, some get better results. But taking it 100% more than exiosting on March 29th 2017 is being extremely conservative.

Further, 1927 people were added between 431-440 in 4 weeks. Ist march the Draw was 434 and March 24, the draw was 441. It took 3 weeks for 1927 to get accumulated between this range which means 68 ppl per day. Between March 29th and April 5, there were 1143 ppl added in the group, that is 95 per day...

The March 24th draw with a score of 441 was high because it included PNP's alloted.

 

[ajkidwai]

Yeah, I Know. what I am talking about is extra profiles per day. 164 looks high...gives me a heart attack

 

[Shaz1]

I am sitting at 426..what r the chances?

 

[cp30985]

I m waiting at 410... Still a long way to go...

Hoping to drop the crs points at my levels in the coming months ...