Most of them are forgetting that in 2015 and 2016, along with EE draw, it was paper based applications prior of 2015 that was also eating up the space. If you look into the targets of 2015 and 2016, it is clearly mentioned that it will be half of the applications from express entry.
While for 2017, it is clearly written that mostly it will be from express entry. Now, mostly is a subjective term. But anything above 75% falls into the category of mostly.
Second, they have increased the economic immigrants targets for 2017. So that increase is also a plus.
Third, they have decreased the points for LMIA.
All in all, all the above three factors should bring down the score. Well, we dont know by what, but it looks it should go down below 450. Remember, in entire history of express entry, no one ever though the draws would be of those sizes. Tt was always around 1500 lot in 2015, while 2016 was different due to refugees. for six months, it was in the around 700.
But 2017 could be a different story all together. As stated in some paper in canada, there are 60000 active profiles in express entry. Since then 13000+ have been drawn. Yes, there would be new additions. But, I dont think that total active profiles in express entry at the end of year would not be more that 55000.
Now the most important optics that we all need to take into considerations is how is the distribution. Well, these are known to IRCC. But, we may get the visibility by January 2017 when we end of year report is published.
Cheers
Ran Kap