Ray of HOPE *50th Draw*(Score Prediction)

[YOF2015]

It's actually bad time to be in the pool for outland FSW. Currently and in near future, draws are going to be in favor of people with Canadian connections (education, relatives, etc). But we cannot derive conclusions about future draws. So sit tight and wait for a few months to pass by.

I will wait patiently...As long as i am able to reach Canada by end of 2017, i would be happy i guess...thanks

 

[Castillo]

I will wait patiently...As long as i am able to reach Canada by end of 2017, i would be happy i guess...thanks

That is what we have been doing : waiting and hoping !! What's ur CRS ?

 

[jawadchoudary]

I will wait patiently...As long as i am able to reach Canada by end of 2017, i would be happy i guess...thanks

Buddy you are in much better shape without being in Canada, then the ppl who are in Canada for more then 3 years. And now they might have to go back from where then came due to such high score in pools.
As per calculations from some candidates, the scores look like to stay above 495 for couple of months.

 

[Castillo]

Buddy you are in much better shape without being in Canada, then the ppl who are in Canada for more then 3 years. And now they might have to go back from where then came due to such high score in pools.
As per calculations from some candidates, the scores look like to stay above 495 for couple of months.

No u r so so wrong @495.....maybe u should recalculate and don't confuse others

 

[jawadchoudary]

No u r so so wrong @495.....maybe u should recalculate and don't confuse others

I WISH i am ...As i am also in line, just like other guys. I just wrote what calculations i read on internet, and yes they could be false. But there is only one way to find out!!

 

[Castillo]

I WISH i am ...As i am also in line, just like other guys. I just wrote what calculations i read on internet, and yes they could be false. But there is only one way to find out!!

You should validate any Internet figure wth commonsense.saying score will be at 495 for months means that there are over 4k people between 497 and 495 ....u don't need a PhD in rocket science to prove dat wrong!!!

 

[sunchaser]

I don't think we have any official figures to arrive at an educated guess on crs.. so let's wait patiently... no point guessing 8)

 

[vensak]

By those calculations you are forgetting one major factor:
The pool is not static. So there are added new people every day. that is why by certain amount of ITA score will not drop below certain number. And yes demand for ITA is increasing.

 

[astralsource]

Funny thing when someone posts something like: "we will have to wait and see, we cant know and there is no point in guessing"!

Because we know how many times there were a lot of useful and valid informations on this forum regarding draws based on people's calculations before draws even happened.. we are here to guess I would say as we create good points throught connecting pieces of information. I remember just scrolling endlessly and BAM there it was, some piece of the puzzle when someone said something really important and connected different informations given by CIC or some third party.. I loooove those moments, especially as they are more rare these days :

 

[Castillo]

By those calculations you are forgetting one major factor:
The pool is not static. So there are added new people every day. that is why by certain amount of ITA score will not drop below certain number. And yes demand for ITA is increasing.

Hope you know how dynamic the pool was in between April and August when CIC was issuing about 2k or less ita per month ( at some point 1.5k) while 1.5k enter the pool per week ( deficit of 4.5k per month for five months). It took only 2.5 months to bring CRS from 500+ to 470, even in the face of ita vultures, the lmia job holders. So what now gives the impression that for months CRS points will be above 495. Note that at any point in EE, when there is an interval of 3weeks or more between draws, CRS point increases by about 20 points from the previous point. In this case we had 4 weeks, some people got additional
Points, so for the score to move from 470 to 497 is not out of place . When you are guessing, please guess with commonsense. That's my vew

 

[YOF2015]

That is what we have been doing : waiting and hoping !! What's ur CRS ?

463

 

[vensak]

Hope you know how dynamic the pool was in between April and August when CIC was issuing about 2k or less ita per month ( at some point 1.5k) while 1.5k enter the pool per week ( deficit of 4.5k per month for five months). It took only 2.5 months to bring CRS from 500+ to 470, even in the face of ita vultures, the lmia job holders. So what now gives the impression that for months CRS points will be above 495. Note that at any point in EE, when there is an interval of 3weeks or more between draws, CRS point increases by about 20 points from the previous point. In this case we had 4 weeks, some people got additional
Points, so for the score to move from 470 to 497 is not out of place . When you are guessing, please guess with commonsense. That's my vew

At the same time during this summer (April to August), the PNP activity was much lower than now.
With that factor you would end up with app. same amount of non PNP applicants per month in this draw
(back than it was like 800 per draw - 150 PNP = 1300 non PNP per month. Now it is 1930 for December - 630 PNP nominations = 1300 non PNP applicants per month).
On that patern you can clearly see that larger group of applicants must have benefited from the changes in November. And that group is larger than the group of applicants that have lost some points (LMIA). So the whole score has moved around 15 to 20 points up. So if in the past the lowest score was around 450 now we will have treshold at 470.
So unless they will increase number of applicants that can pass through the EE system. And at the same time the amount of new applicants per month will not increase, there is not much chance of any further score drop. That means that 470 will become 450 before.

 

[Castillo]

At the same time during this summer (April to August), the PNP activity was much lower than now.
With that factor you would end up with app. same amount of non PNP applicants per month in this draw
(back than it was like 800 per draw - 150 PNP = 1300 non PNP per month. Now it is 1930 for December - 630 PNP nominations = 1300 non PNP applicants per month).
On that patern you can clearly see that larger group of applicants must have benefited from the changes in November. And that group is larger than the group of applicants that have lost some points (LMIA). So the whole score has moved around 15 to 20 points up. So if in the past the lowest score was around 450 now we will have treshold at 470.
So unless they will increase number of applicants that can pass through the EE system. And at the same time the amount of new applicants per month will not increase, there is not much chance of any further score drop. That means that 470 will become 450 before.

Ould does applicants/ graduates be there forever? Were lmia group not snatching the ITAs in summer? Scores will surely go sub 470 , how low can't tell, but if scores can't get lower than 450, so were is the improvement the changes was meant tol bring..PNP have der cap, hope u know dat

 

[Castillo]

463

Deris hope, 463 is good ...... In. D coming year once the backlog of Intl grad has being cleared nd provided volume of ita maintained and no further changes soon

 

[vensak]

Ould does applicants/ graduates be there forever? Were lmia group not snatching the ITAs in summer? Scores will surely go sub 470 , how low can't tell, but if scores can't get lower than 450, so were is the improvement the changes wll bring..PNP have der cap, hope u know dat

Every year you will get fresh batch of graduates and all all over the year people will get additional points for whole work year in Canada or for 1 year work under closed work permit.