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Ray of HOPE *50th Draw*(Score Prediction)

Batman_is_Real

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Castillo said:
You think there are over 2k between 497 and 483......I doubt
2k is underestimate in my opinion. I think there more then 2k between 10-15 point range.
 

Pitlord

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Aug 23, 2016
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Batman_is_Real said:
2k is underestimate in my opinion. I think there more then 2k between 10-15 point range.
Agree. There is between 400-600 applicants per 1 point based on last 3 draws
 

Castillo

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Nov 23, 2016
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Pitlord said:
Agree. There is between 400-600 applicants per 1 point based on last 3 draws

I think I disagree to some extent.....So you mean that to move from 497 to 487 requires about 4k ita...... About 8 percent of d entire population of the EE pool. I beg to differ
 

aniket2789

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According to Last year reports , 13500 were between 400 to 449 and 1650 candidates between 450 to 499 on 3rd Jan.2016. Now these13500 are still in pool . Lets assume 50% are International Students and have enhanced their scores by 50 points owing to new changes Plus there must be an Addition this year to this number may be 10%.So now the Number between 450 to 499 may be between 7500 plus there are people originally between 450 to 499 who are not International Students. Lets say this No. Is 6000.( it may be more if we look at draws which had cut off 478, 475 , 473 and 470 points in consecutive rounds with an average of 2000 ITA's)So there may be about 13500 applicants between 450 to 499 (ie 275 per point rough average)IF there are 2000 ITA's next Draw and 500 of that are PNP then 1500 are for FSW & CEC.IT comes to a 6 to 8 Point drop for next round if it happens Next week.( there may be fewer candidates per point at higher end of the spectrum and more towards the botom. So the points drop will be around 10 Points. So I think it Can be 487 .
I hope whatever calculation I have done is absolutely wrong and it drops down below 460 very fast.
 

YOF2015

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Sep 26, 2015
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Totally losing hope in the system...from 470 to 497....When is it going to to hit 463 ???

Sad state of affairs.....
 

Asivad Anac

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aniket2789 said:
According to Last year reports , 13500 were between 400 to 449 and 1650 candidates between 450 to 499 on 3rd Jan.2016. Now these13500 are still in pool . Lets assume 50% are International Students and have enhanced their scores by 50 points owing to new changes Plus there must be an Addition this year to this number may be 10%.So now the Number between 450 to 499 may be between 7500 plus there are people originally between 450 to 499 who are not International Students. Lets say this No. Is 6000.( it may be more if we look at draws which had cut off 478, 475 , 473 and 470 points in consecutive rounds with an average of 2000 ITA's)So there may be about 13500 applicants between 450 to 499 (ie 275 per point rough average)IF there are 2000 ITA's next Draw and 500 of that are PNP then 1500 are for FSW & CEC.IT comes to a 6 to 8 Point drop for next round if it happens Next week.( there may be fewer candidates per point at higher end of the spectrum and more towards the botom. So the points drop will be around 10 Points. So I think it Can be 487 .
I hope whatever calculation I have done is absolutely wrong and it drops down below 460 very fast.
International students would get 15/30 points instead of 50. On average, you may expect 20 points. Even assuming your other numbers are reasonable (I imagine that assumption of 50% is overmuch as is that other assumption of 6000 potential non-Canadian educated applicants between 450 & 499), your final number should be closer to mid 460s instead of 487.
 

_Aspirant

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aniket2789 said:
According to Last year reports , 13500 were between 400 to 449 and 1650 candidates between 450 to 499 on 3rd Jan.2016. Now these13500 are still in pool . Lets assume 50% are International Students and have enhanced their scores by 50 points owing to new changes Plus there must be an Addition this year to this number may be 10%.So now the Number between 450 to 499 may be between 7500 plus there are people originally between 450 to 499 who are not International Students. Lets say this No. Is 6000.( it may be more if we look at draws which had cut off 478, 475 , 473 and 470 points in consecutive rounds with an average of 2000 ITA's)So there may be about 13500 applicants between 450 to 499 (ie 275 per point rough average)IF there are 2000 ITA's next Draw and 500 of that are PNP then 1500 are for FSW & CEC.IT comes to a 6 to 8 Point drop for next round if it happens Next week.( there may be fewer candidates per point at higher end of the spectrum and more towards the botom. So the points drop will be around 10 Points. So I think it Can be 487 .
I hope whatever calculation I have done is absolutely wrong and it drops down below 460 very fast.
IMO, valid argument but the predicted score for next draw is bit higher (just guessing).
 

mukulabd

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YOF2015 said:
Totally losing hope in the system...from 470 to 497....When is it going to to hit 463 ???

Sad state of affairs.....
It's actually bad time to be in the pool for outland FSW. Currently and in near future, draws are going to be in favor of people with Canadian connections (education, relatives, etc). But we cannot derive conclusions about future draws. So sit tight and wait for a few months to pass by.
 

Castillo

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Nov 23, 2016
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mukulabd said:
It's actually bad time to be in the pool for outland FSW. Currently and in near future, draws are going to be in favor of people with Canadian connections (education, relatives, etc). But we cannot derive conclusions about future draws. So sit tight and wait for a few months to pass by.
A horrible time indeed!!!!!! Me I have freed my mind !!!!
 

Castillo

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Nov 23, 2016
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aniket2789 said:
According to Last year reports , 13500 were between 400 to 449 and 1650 candidates between 450 to 499 on 3rd Jan.2016. Now these13500 are still in pool . Lets assume 50% are International Students and have enhanced their scores by 50 points owing to new changes Plus there must be an Addition this year to this number may be 10%.So now the Number between 450 to 499 may be between 7500 plus there are people originally between 450 to 499 who are not International Students. Lets say this No. Is 6000.( it may be more if we look at draws which had cut off 478, 475 , 473 and 470 points in consecutive rounds with an average of 2000 ITA's)So there may be about 13500 applicants between 450 to 499 (ie 275 per point rough average)IF there are 2000 ITA's next Draw and 500 of that are PNP then 1500 are for FSW & CEC.IT comes to a 6 to 8 Point drop for next round if it happens Next week.( there may be fewer candidates per point at higher end of the spectrum and more towards the botom. So the points drop will be around 10 Points. So I think it Can be 487 .
I hope whatever calculation I have done is absolutely wrong and it drops down below 460 very fast.
You forgot that most of the ITA at 478 475 went to peoole with job offers !
 

fatani

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Nov 15, 2015
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aniket2789 said:
According to Last year reports , 13500 were between 400 to 449 and 1650 candidates between 450 to 499 on 3rd Jan.2016. Now these13500 are still in pool . Lets assume 50% are International Students and have enhanced their scores by 50 points owing to new changes Plus there must be an Addition this year to this number may be 10%.So now the Number between 450 to 499 may be between 7500 plus there are people originally between 450 to 499 who are not International Students. Lets say this No. Is 6000.( it may be more if we look at draws which had cut off 478, 475 , 473 and 470 points in consecutive rounds with an average of 2000 ITA's)So there may be about 13500 applicants between 450 to 499 (ie 275 per point rough average)IF there are 2000 ITA's next Draw and 500 of that are PNP then 1500 are for FSW & CEC.IT comes to a 6 to 8 Point drop for next round if it happens Next week.( there may be fewer candidates per point at higher end of the spectrum and more towards the botom. So the points drop will be around 10 Points. So I think it Can be 487 .
I hope whatever calculation I have done is absolutely wrong and it drops down below 460 very fast.
What are you saying man those 13.5K between 400-449 are still in the pool? Are you day dreaming or what. Lots of them would have increased their scores got PNP or job offers by now not all of them would be there. And your numbers are so so high. There were 60K active candidates in EE on 3rd jan 2016.

And if you have seen Refocusing EE report it mentioned that as of may 26 2016 there were 57.5 K so the number decreased in 5 months. We always overestimate here. In the past the most populated bracket was 350-399. And after the recent changes I assume the most populated bracket will be 380-420 range.

Majority of Intl students were in the range of 380-400 points if we assume 30% of the pool consists of Intl students so if the pool is of 60K people lets suppose 20K are intl students and 25% of that 20K were on or above 420-430 points so now roughly 5K students will be on or above 450-460 and these 5K will get cleared more faster than the new ones will come because they have to complete their education than have to work for atleast 1 yr in skilled level job. So it will take more time for new ones to come than to get existing cleared.

It is not like LMIAs that if it get cleared we will see another 300-400 LMIAs in 2 weeks time. So now with LMIAs points cut we will see that after 4-5 draws the scores will come in 460s range and thej it will drop further from there.

Regarding next draw prediction so if next draw happend on wednesday and we assume a draw of 2000 ITAs and 200 of them are PNPs and 1800 will be FSW CEC so I think the score will be 480
 

Castillo

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Nov 23, 2016
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Asivad Anac said:
International students would get 15/30 points instead of 50. On average, you may expect 20 points. Even assuming your other numbers are reasonable (I imagine that assumption of 50% is overmuch as is that other assumption of 6000 potential non-Canadian educated applicants between 450 & 499), your final number should be closer to mid 460s instead of 487.

Did be happy to see a mid 460 ....but I don't know how.....cos we keep hearing that all Intl graduates are now in 485 and above! This EE cannot be predicted.....too enigmatic!
 

dr.psr

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Castillo said:
Cos a lot of people predicted above 500 given the high volume of PNP, 4 weeks interval between this draw and the last regular draw, additional points for Intl students and, perhaps to add, ITAs of less than 2k, I think it gives a glimmer of hope. Waiting at 467, hopefully I get an ITA in January or February
Dude i pray that you r right.
 

popoxee

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May 4, 2016
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Castillo said:
Did be happy to see a mid 460 ....but I don't know how.....cos we keep hearing that all Intl graduates are now in 485 and above! This EE cannot be predicted.....too enigmatic!
I am studnt with 460 and now 490. Never got selected.