Ray of Hope - 47th Draw

[kryt0n]

Hi,
I personally know a former international student working on BOWP his third year, who has been in the pool since March 2015! After the new changes his points will jump to 496 so hopefully hi's gonna get his ITA soon. I am sure there are thousands like him out there and still waiting!

But he's only getting an extra 30 points which means he was at 466 before. The score has dropped below that so he should have got an ITA already...

 

[fatani]

My gut feeling is that it's inevitable that scores will increase slightly. The net benefit of removing perhaps 300 LMIA holders from the top end of the pool is likely going to be overwhelmed by a much larger number of international students whose score was around 450-460.

Of course, there is no way of knowing how many international students there are in that range, but my money is on it being substantially higher than 300. In that case, CRS scores will rise on the next draw (perhaps even the next few draws) but I'm skeptical that there are thousands of students around 440-450. If I'm right, and ITA numbers remain solidly around the 2000-2500 mark I think we'll see a substantial drop by the end of this year, down to 450 or so, then lowering as the year progresses.

My bet is that it'll settle no lower than 400, but there are many factors that are unknown that could still affect this.

I agree with you. As I said earlier that most of them are between 380-400 thats why they demanded more points. So I think there will be a backlog because of sudden increase in points. At max there will be 7-8K intl students will be up or above 420 I think without bonus. Considering all of them go over 450 so I think first 5-6 draws we can see scores high. But after the backlog of 7-8K is cleared we wont see another 7-8K coming in this period above 450. So the time of removal will be less and the time for new ones to come will be higher. So if we gets 7-8K clearing in 2-3 months we can see 1K more will come at max so it will take time for the new ones to come and existing ones to increase their score more. In LMIA roughly 300-400 were added in every 2 weeks they got cleared and another set of 300-400 added and that guaranteed them an ITA. So we have to think also that now we have much larger draws and more 300-400 places are open which will not fill up like before which will reduce the scores. And After that I think after first few draws in 3-4 or 5 months the scores will come down. CIC also had known that by cutting LMIA points the scores will fall thats why they only alloted 30 bonus points. Lots of 380-400 Students are complaing that what is the point of increasing only 30 points. But now with that they also came in the range of 400-430. So I think they also want the scores to fall at the level of 420-425 so more students can come up. Because there will be a huge backlog of students in the range of 400-430 after bonus. So less bonus points are given to make it fair that the most deserving will come first and the less deserving will have to wait a bit but they will come.

 

[Wolverine17]

But he's only getting an extra 30 points which means he was at 466 before. The score has dropped below that so he should have got an ITA already...

International students will be having an extra 30 points??

 

[kryt0n]

International students will be having an extra 30 points??

International who studied and got 3 years or more from a Canadian uni.

 

[Pat180715]

Hi,
I personally know a former international student working on BOWP his third year, who has been in the pool since March 2015! After the new changes his points will jump to 496 so hopefully hi's gonna get his ITA soon. I am sure there are thousands like him out there and still waiting!

Last year and in the beginning of this year the cut-off was 450. So he should have gotten ITA already!

 

[ashu1710]

I agree with you. As I said earlier that most of them are between 380-400 thats why they demanded more points. So I think there will be a backlog because of sudden increase in points. At max there will be 7-8K intl students will be up or above 420 I think without bonus. Considering all of them go over 450 so I think first 5-6 draws we can see scores high. But after the backlog of 7-8K is cleared we wont see another 7-8K coming in this period above 450. So the time of removal will be less and the time for new ones to come will be higher. So if we gets 7-8K clearing in 2-3 months we can see 1K more will come at max so it will take time for the new ones to come and existing ones to increase their score more. In LMIA roughly 300-400 were added in every 2 weeks they got cleared and another set of 300-400 added and that guaranteed them an ITA. So we have to think also that now we have much larger draws and more 300-400 places are open which will not fill up like before which will reduce the scores. And After that I think after first few draws in 3-4 or 5 months the scores will come down. CIC also had known that by cutting LMIA points the scores will fall thats why they only alloted 30 bonus points. Lots of 380-400 Students are complaing that what is the point of increasing only 30 points. But now with that they also came in the range of 400-430. So I think they also want the scores to fall at the level of 420-425 so more students can come up. Because there will be a huge backlog of students in the range of 400-430 after bonus. So less bonus points are given to make it fair that the most deserving will come first and the less deserving will have to wait a bit but they will come.

You're missing one thing, though. Most of the best intl' students that have scores above 460 in the current system already have ITAs. At max, there'll be some students in the 430-450 range in the current system, but most will be in the 380-450 range. I think the cut off will drop to around 450-460 even in the initial few draws and even lower in subsequent draws.

 

[US1876]

Score just got bumped to 476 when I passed the three year work threshold . Hoping to get an ITA in the next draw- got my FBI check done in June and if I don't get my application in before the end of November, I'll pass the six month threshold and have to go through that whole long process again. We'll see what happens after all these changes!

 

[vaibhav007us]

I read somewhere the ranking in the system would also be disclosed now, what is it all about?

 

[harvijay1001]

Hi,
I personally know a former international student working on BOWP his third year, who has been in the pool since March 2015! After the new changes his points will jump to 496 so hopefully hi's gonna get his ITA soon. I am sure there are thousands like him out there and still waiting!

How does he have a BOWP without having an AOR? Which would be followed by how did he get an AOR without getting an ITA? Which would then be followed by why do his points matter if he already got the ITA?

Curious!

 

[aircanada]

How does he have a BOWP without having an AOR? Which would be followed by how did he get an AOR without getting an ITA? Which would then be followed by why do his points matter if he already got the ITA?

Curious!

He might have applied through a paper-based system as well, which have been deprioritized since the introduction of express entry and has like 16-20 month timelines.

 

[aircanada]

So you guys are telling me that there are chances that there won't be a draw on 16th, and also that the CRS might go up because of the new policy!! . That would be terrible.

I've been in the pool only since the last draw, but waiting for 15 days is crazy! Now there are chances that I might have to wait for 15 more for the next draw!!

If there's no draw on the 16th it'd actually be a good thing as all the LMIA people would get only 50 points instead of 600.

 

[ravdawg]

If there's no draw on the 16th it'd actually be a good thing as all the LMIA people would get only 50 points instead of 600.

In fairness, I hope they do not do that. Anyone with a current LMIA should get their 600 pts and have a draw. As well as anyone who has already submitted the LMIA paper work and in-process.

I think it would only be fair that anyone who submits their LMIA paper work after Nov 19th, should fall under the new pt allocation.

But i'm not the gov't unfortunately - and the more likely scenario is that anyone with a current LMIA 600+ waiting, will get their pts, but everyone else whom is in process or submitted paper work will only get 200 or 50.

 

[harvijay1001]

He might have applied through a paper-based system as well, which have been deprioritized since the introduction of express entry and has like 16-20 month timelines.

Oh okay! That makes sense

 

[nov1061]

How does he have a BOWP without having an AOR? Which would be followed by how did he get an AOR without getting an ITA? Which would then be followed by why do his points matter if he already got the ITA?

Curious!

Hi,
sorry my bad. He's been working on his PGWP (not BOWP). It is true the points went down under 466 before (I think once to 450), but that time he was sitting on 441 as per of his 1 year work experience. 1 month before he had finished working his 2nd year (at the and of March) the number of ITAs was reduced and cutoff went above 466 and never went back under.

 

[theonlyseed]

Hey folks, is there any pre-alert when 47th draw may occur? Or we can only learnt it once it happened?

Great thanks!