Ray of Hope - 149th Draw - CEC

[Islander216]

Its a complex situation so no one factor is responsible for the current trend in the draws. If its only about the CRS score, they would have suspended the draws. IRCC is well aware of the stuffs like how much time it takes to process the application starting from ITA issued or who are more deserving.


From IRCC twiter-
We can confirm that Express Entry rounds of invitations are still happening, and at this time, we are continuing to accept and process applications.

Travel restrictions are currently in place for anyone approved for PR after March 18, 2020, but a candidate invited to apply now will likely not have their application processed for at least 6 months.

Recent CEC-only and PNP-only draws were meant to benefit candidates who are already in Canada with a temporary status. Processing of permanent resident applications is continuing.

Nope, not complex at all. Before the pandemic, there were consistently all program draws, with the odd program specific draws for PNPs and FST. You have to go back to 2015 i believe for the one CEC exclusive draw done previously.

As soon as the pandemic occurred, there were only CEC and PNP draws.

Cause and effect.

As soon as the pandemic abates and it makes sense to resume all program draws, that's what they will do.

Again, it does not make sense long term to invite CEC candidates who are sub 450 while there are FSWs with scores in the 460s, 470s, and 480s.

It's not meritocratic, and it disenfranchises people who have just as much a right to apply for immigration as candidates already in the country.

 

[NiclasB]

I don't think there will be one at new year's, but this time next year is definitely a possibility which is probably when most FSWs would be able to land. I don't think i mentioned by year's end as a timeline, i said by the time FSWs would need to land.

There are already several vaccines which are undergoing clinical trials.

Even if there were no vaccines available, testing would effective enough to test people when they land.

The other person that I quoted first said there would be one. I also don't think that FSW are directly affected by that, or border closures. I think it's probably more towards CEC already being in the country. It's so much easier to just tell people already here to stay and keep working with what their working(if their work returns) than it is to have people come from abroad trying to find a job. In a way CEC draws is not even bringing in people. It's telling people on temporary visas to just stay. So it doesn't add people, short term, though it does long term. Which makes sense when you are in a completely new situation. Especially as stuff like working holiday visas definitely aren't going to fill up this year. I live in the Rockies, and our tourism industry won't be back to normal for years. So we won't get an influx of foreign workers like usual.

A CEC candidate that has 430 points, but already has a home, a job, and a community, is more valuable during this time period than an FSW candidate from another country who has never been in Canada. Yes that will change after the pandemic. But during a pandemic priorities change. I also think that the IRCC will wait until things are more normal, not just that restaurants can open(though no one eats there) and then pretend it's normal.

 

[Islander216]

The other person that I quoted first said there would be one. I also don't think that FSW are directly affected by that, or border closures. I think it's probably more towards CEC already being in the country. It's so much easier to just tell people already here to stay and keep working with what their working(if their work returns) than it is to have people come from abroad trying to find a job. In a way CEC draws is not even bringing in people. It's telling people on temporary visas to just stay. So it doesn't add people, short term, though it does long term. Which makes sense when you are in a completely new situation. Especially as stuff like working holiday visas definitely aren't going to fill up this year. I live in the Rockies, and our tourism industry won't be back to normal for years. So we won't get an influx of foreign workers like usual.

Okay, i see what you mean.

I think they will revise immigration targets downwards, if anything just to allay concerns of people here who have lost their jobs, that there won't be a wave of immigrants coming to make the job market even more competitive for them this year.

I don't think there will be a big impact long term however, after the smoke clears, they will increase ITAs next year.

Canada fundamentally needs skilled people to power their economy, and rejuvenate their shrinking population. You can't escape the long term trend, only reason the country doesn't have negative population growth is due to immigration.

Every time i see someone with a kid i feel like giving them a medal.

 

[NiclasB]

Okay, i see what you mean.

I think they will revise immigration targets downwards, if anything just to allay concerns of people here who have lost their jobs, that there won't be a wave of immigrants coming to make the job market even more competitive for them this year.

I don't think there will be a big impact long term however, after the smoke clears, they will increase ITAs next year.

Canada fundamentally needs skilled people to power their economy, and rejuvenate their shrinking population. You can't escape the long term trend, only reason the country doesn't have negative population growth is due to immigration.

I agree. During the fall they will probably lower the numbers a bit. But like you said. It doesn't change the fact that Canada needs people. The government has kept talking about the importance of it in agriculture for instance. I think next year might be a down year, but then back at in 2022 when the economy has recovered better.

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

@nat.abramovich

If this is the case. Why is Canada still keeping Roxham Road open? I agree millions of Canadians have lost their jobs but it would be extremely short-sighted on the government's part if they decide to just stop outland immigration.

I still think they should continue with general draws as soon as they are able to (I understand they are not able to do it now). If they can't allow outland immigrants because too many people are out of jobs, they should close Roxham Road as well. If all it takes to live in Canada is to go to the US as a tourist and cross into Canada 'irregularly,' where is the incentive for people who spend years and money trying to come to Canada legally.

If they decide to temporarily cut the funding for immigration, I feel they might reduce their annual targets until things get better, not stop outland immigration altogether. It is great that IRCC is still doing draws but I have a strong gut feeling that this is only due to the operating capacity of IRCC's offices in foreign countries. I heard that some visa officers working at the overseas locations were forced to come back to Canada due to the pandemic and as a result of that, they are not in a position to accept applications from FSW candidates (who are mostly outland and have to be processed in their respective countries).

@nat.abramovich

 

[hgunawa]

FSWs are not entering Canada the moment they receive ITAs, they will have 3 months to submit their application and at least 6 months to have their applications processed, and most likely will take longer. By then, there will either be a vaccine or most countries will have herd immunity. Applicants are also going to have their medicals done, and can be tested for covid when they land.

I don't see why they shouldn't be allowed to be invited at least as from July onwards.

A vaccine and heard immunity is 6 months? That's being very very very optimistic.
Try 18 months. That's more realistic.

This has nothing to do with the draws tho. Hopefully they start fsw ones soon.

 

[Islander216]

Please read what i wrote, i never said there would be a vaccine in 6 months. The most optimistic timeline you can extrapolate from what i said is 9 months at least, but with what i expect to be delays in processing, i'm saying more like a year from now.

18 months from now?

I doubt it, with vaccines already in clinical trials, there will probably be one this time next year.

 

[zabrodov]

If this is the case. Why is Canada still keeping Roxham Road open? I agree millions of Canadians have lost their jobs but it would be extremely short-sighted on the government's part if they decide to just stop outland immigration.

I am not sure about the specific road, but unlike Economic immigration, asylum/refugee acceptance can't be canceled because it's not up to the Canadian government. Canada is a founding member of UN and it has to comply with the universal declaration of human rights. Therefore stopping asylum/refugee is out of the question.

If they decide to temporarily cut the funding for immigration, I feel they might reduce their annual targets until things get better, not stop outland immigration altogether.

Looks like the most likely scenario to me.

It is great that IRCC is still doing draws but I have a strong gut feeling that this is only due to the operating capacity of IRCC's offices in foreign countries.

Maybe you're right and I am wrong. I don't know. But what I know is that continuing with the current immigration plan at this time is going to be a very hard sell. And with my very little political knowledge, I don't think there are a lot of politicians who would like to risk losing their seats for immigrants, especially when it makes no sense to advise for keeping the current plan under the circumstances.

 

[skgimcanada]

Nope, not complex at all. Before the pandemic, there were consistently all program draws, with the odd program specific draws for PNPs and FST. You have to go back to 2015 i believe for the one CEC exclusive draw done previously.

As soon as the pandemic occurred, there were only CEC and PNP draws.

Cause and effect.

As soon as the pandemic abates and it makes sense to resume all program draws, that's what they will do.

Again, it does not make sense long term to invite CEC candidates who are sub 450 while there are FSWs with scores in the 460s, 470s, and 480s.

It's not meritocratic, and it disenfranchises people who have just as much a right to apply for immigration as candidates already in the country.

You are not getting the point. I totally understand that Canada needs immigrants to grow its economy and find a balance of its aging population.
But how a immigrant could be of use if he/she cant even cross the borders. Even after entering to the Canada, what an immigrant would do if all the businesses are closed.
Nobody knows until when this pandemic would last and this uncertainty is the main cause if not the only one for the current trend in IRCC draws. During these uncertainties all the organization whether business or immigration would want to have minimum loses possible by avoiding the risks of staff exchange. Most of the companies would want its current staff to be available after the pandemic is contained so that they could compensate the loses as soon as possible. When the conditions become normal, they would definitely need so called talented people to make further progress.

Now think, how would kicking out currently working foreigners (CEC with low scores and unable to renew the work permits) and hiring new foreign employees who have no idea when will they arrive or how much time will they take to settle will help.

IRCC knows it very well and they have clearly stated on their twitter account that 'Recent CEC-only and PNP-only draws were meant to benefit candidates who are already in Canada with a temporary status. Processing of permanent resident applications is continuing.'

Good luck guys.

 

[ZAtoCD]

Those flights are only if you are eligible, essential workers and are Canadian citizens or PR holders! It’s clearly written on their website. Stop spreading false information... without proper facts

There are eligibility requirements for now, yes. But it's still more flying than what was happening before, which is indicative of a positive trend.

All I said was that flights have resumed, not what kind of flights specifically, so before trying to take me down for false info, maybe just read the comments in the context in which they're posted, and go read up on the websites yourself for more info. I'm just a forum member, not an encyclopedia/search engine.

Further, my mission here is to spread positivity in the face of all the negative comments. So, any good news I see I will share with everyone. These airlines gradually conducting more flights into Canada is good news. It's a start. And hopefully there will be more such good news, and relief for waiting FSW candidates, to come soon.

 

[Islander216]

You are not getting the point. I totally understand that Canada needs immigrants to grow its economy and find a balance of its aging population.
But how a immigrant could be of use if he/she cant even cross the borders. Even after entering to the Canada, what an immigrant would do if all the businesses are closed.
Nobody knows until when this pandemic would last and this uncertainty is the main cause if not the only one for the current trend in IRCC draws. During these uncertainties all the organization whether business or immigration would want to have minimum loses possible by avoiding the risks of staff exchange. Most of the companies would want its current staff to be available after the pandemic is contained so that they could compensate the loses as soon as possible. When the conditions become normal, they would definitely need so called talented people to make further progress.

Now think, how would kicking out currently working foreigners (CEC with low scores and unable to renew the work permits) and hiring new foreign employees who have no idea when will they arrive or how much time will they take to settle will help.

IRCC knows it very well and they have clearly stated on their twitter account that 'Recent CEC-only and PNP-only draws were meant to benefit candidates who are already in Canada with a temporary status. Processing of permanent resident applications is continuing.'

Good luck guys.

Yeah, i think you're reading too much into a tweet. IRCC aren't explicitly going to state that the CEC only draws are due to the pandemic, so they choose to frame it in another way, highlighting it as an opportunity for CECs. That's just a classic PR move, nothing more nothing less.

I understand your point, i just don't see much merit in it.

You're selectively applying your logic, if there is so much uncertainty, businesses are closing, and so many job losses, then don't invite CECs either, stop immigration altogether until we survey the damage to the economy, and then restart immigration with revised quotas. If we're going by your logic, that makes just as much sense if not more so.

CECs will be taking up jobs that could go to Canadians and PRs, if Canada is in such dire straits then let's do that. Furthermore, if we're going to accept less qualified, less experienced CECs, then let's suspend immigration until we can invite FSWs with higher scores and better credentials.

It's not so nice when the shoe is on the other foot, is it?

 

[joconstantine]

There are eligibility requirements for now, yes. But it's still more flying than what was happening before, which is indicative of a positive trend.

All I said was that flights have resumed, not what kind of flights specifically, so before trying to take me down for false info, maybe just read the comments in the context in which they're posted, and go read up on the websites yourself for more info. I'm just a forum member, not an encyclopedia/search engine.

Further, my mission here is to spread positivity in the face of all the negative comments. So, any good news I see I will share with everyone. These airlines gradually conducting more flights into Canada is good news. It's a start. And hopefully there will be more such good news, and relief for waiting FSW candidates, to come soon.

On a more general level, all-category draws will be assign that things have been normalised, and people, especially those in Canada, can resume their work/living.

The debate between CEC and FSW candidates just does not make any sense. High-scorers had been from both FSW and CEC streams way before the pandemic started. Most of my friends (university friends, over 50 of them) who are residing in Canada now were graduates from Canada universities; they came there to pursue graduate studies. So I believe most of the people who received ITAs were also from the CEC stream.

If Canada continues PNP CEC draws, I would respect their operation and they surely have good reasons doing that. If not, well it's a competition anyway, so there will be people who make it, and others who break it.

 

[ZAtoCD]

On a more general level, all-category draws will be assign that things have been normalised, and people, especially those in Canada, can resume their work/living.

The debate between CEC and FSW candidates just does not make any sense. High-scorers had been from both FSW and CEC streams way before the pandemic started. Most of my friends (university friends, over 50 of them) who are residing in Canada now were graduates from Canada universities; they came there to pursue graduate studies. So I believe most of the people who received ITAs were also from the CEC stream.

If Canada continues PNP CEC draws, I would respect their operation and they surely have good reasons doing that. If not, well it's a competition anyway, so there will be people who make it, and others who break it.

Yip, it is definitely a competition. That much is blatant from the scoring system used. It's not a lottery, like with US Green Cards. We are ranked against each other. Right now, the competition is not fair, as only certain applicants are allowed to participate and others are blocked from taking part. I trust the Canadian government has good reasons for that. But at some point, that's going to end, and go back to the way it was before.

The way the system was designed is for all streams to have a chance, and those with the highest scores to be given ITAs. Some people might see that as unfair, but I see having to put in effort to get your reward and applying at the exact perfect time to be economically viable as perfectly fair. I just hope FSWs can get back into the competition soon, so we all have a shot at this.

 

[rajapanesar]

Everyone here is dying for it to be their chance. It's good. But saying that I shall go through with it and the rest can rot is really bad sport.

We know that not everyone is going to ride this bus, sometimes due to age, other times due to other factors. But since the bus service is continuous, everyone should hope they'll catch the next one. And then there are special buses running for PNP and FST, and nowadays, even general buses are picking specific passengers as required by the destination. The destination hasn't forgotten about others, but it has to make do with some who complete a certain condition (CEC).

 

[skgimcanada]

Yeah, i think you're reading too much into a tweet. IRCC aren't explicitly going to state that the CEC only draws are due to the pandemic, so they choose to frame it in another way, highlighting it as an opportunity for CECs. That's just a classic PR move, nothing more nothing less.

I understand your point, i just don't see much merit in it.

You're selectively applying your logic, if there is so much uncertainty, businesses are closing, and so many job losses, then don't invite CECs either, stop immigration altogether until we survey the damage to the economy, and then restart immigration with revised quotas. If we're going by your logic, that makes just as much sense if not more so.

CECs will be taking up jobs that could go to Canadians and PRs, if Canada is in such dire straits then let's do that. Furthermore, if we're going to accept less qualified, less experienced CECs, then let's suspend immigration until we can invite FSWs with higher scores and better credentials.

It's not so nice when the shoe is on the other foot, is it?

Lets halt this argument for the moment because its not going to help any of us and pray for the draws to be continued whether its is a CEC, FSW, or general. Businesses and IRCC know better what they are doing and have better plans to compensate the losses. Let the professionals find a solution.

Depending on the situations, sometimes, it becomes even a privilege to have the shoes regardless of how they are mismatched.