Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[Rkd@321]

@mona247 ,

Firstly, Im assuming you have taken the numbers from the pool table that's reflected on the day of draw. But let me remind you that this data is always 5 days prior to the draw day and I have personally noticed oinp sending bulk noi's just 2 days prior to the draw.
So the figures of 12k for pnp as quoted by @ahsanshabaz could be true.

Secondly, as quoted by you that the target of ircc for this year is between 76-86k , likewise the same target was published for 2018 and 2017 and they ended up issuing more ITA's. Probably a quick search on the official site would give you this information. Yes you are right about being prepared for the worst as that way expectations wouldn't be shattered but the possibility of more draws outweigh at the moment looking at all these factors.

The suspense would end on Nov 6, if at all a draw happens that would indicate we ll be closing with a set of 5 draws from now else it's gonna be 4 draws to end this year.

I believe atleast 4 draws(2 in Nov + 2 in Dec) are yet to take place for sure like all the previous years. What is the exact reason behind some others assuming that a maximum of 3 draws are the most likely thing to happen this year even when it is very clear about the remaining ITAs(approx. 13k) to be issued this year to meet the target of 2019. If it is due to the fact that there will be only 1 week time gap between the 2 draws to happen in december, we have to look at the stats and understand that even in 2018, the 2 draws in the month of december took place in a 1 week gap. So why wouldnt that repeat again this year? Is there any reason. Could anyone comment?

 

[WantToImmigrate]

I believe atleast 4 draws(2 in Nov + 2 in Dec) are yet to take place for sure like all the previous years. What is the exact reason behind some others assuming that a maximum of 3 draws are the most likely thing to happen this year even when it is very clear about the remaining ITAs(approx. 13k) to be issued this year to meet the target of 2019. If it is due to the fact that there will be only 1 week time gap between the 2 draws to happen in december, we have to look at the stats and understand that even in 2018, the 2 draws in the month of december took place in a 1 week gap. So why wouldnt that repeat again this year? Is there any reason. Could anyone comment?

AFAIK there is no target for ITA.

Target is for PRs.

 

[Richu1989john]

Any hopes for 461 by the end of this year.. I am expecting my ECA reports by mid November.

TIA

 

[Igethope]

601-1,200 1,255
451-600 12,999

Can any body guess the number of people with 460 to 600 range ?

 

[Ilyushin76]

Any hopes for 461 by the end of this year.. I am expecting my ECA reports by mid November.

TIA

That is the biggest question so far.

 

[WunderCat]

601-1,200 1,255
451-600 12,999

Can any body guess the number of people with 460 to 600 range ?

You can check @Angel1113 posts earlier in this thread. From there you can get a rough estimation and maybe prediction. But don't forget. There are 13000 people in the pool and only ~170 in this thread.

I would say that there are around 3000 people in this category and most of people are in 451-460. This is just a guess based on pretty much anything but 1 post.

 

[aikay]

Any hopes for 461 by the end of this year.. I am expecting my ECA reports by mid November.

TIA

Yes , December Maybe

 

[Angel1113]

I've not been added. I'm at 468

I already added you dear. You will be able to see your name next time I post updated tracker.

 

[mona247]

@mona247 ,

Firstly, Im assuming you have taken the numbers from the pool table that's reflected on the day of draw. But let me remind you that this data is always 5 days prior to the draw day and I have personally noticed oinp sending bulk noi's just 2 days prior to the draw.
So the figures of 12k for pnp as quoted by @ahsanshabaz could be true.

Secondly, as quoted by you that the target of ircc for this year is between 76-86k , likewise the same target was published for 2018 and 2017 and they ended up issuing more ITA's. Probably a quick search on the official site would give you this information. Yes you are right about being prepared for the worst as that way expectations wouldn't be shattered but the possibility of more draws outweigh at the moment looking at all these factors.

The suspense would end on Nov 6, if at all a draw happens that would indicate we ll be closing with a set of 5 draws from now else it's gonna be 4 draws to end this year.

I agree 2017 and 2018 there were 20 odd % more ITA issued versus the PR target, all i am saying is we do not have the evidence that this theory will hold good this year too, as this year things are very different.

Till now 7.5K pnp's have taken ITA's based on the table that I presented before, respective of OINP EOI or SINP EOI, this number of 7.5k will not climb to 12k under any circumstances, what our fellow friend suggested as a range of 12k to 15k before has no evidence even from previous years pool data.. The evidence we have from the pool data of 2019 which i represented before suggests 7.5k approx till now and another 1.6k max by december end is the assumption looking at the pnp numbers on that table, so total 9.1k approx.

You are perfectly right in saying the suspense ends on Nov 6th partially, so lets all wait and watch.

 

[rajapanesar]

Thanks. from your repsonse it menas NOCcan be chnage in the EE portal anytime an applicant wishes.I ask because some provinces like Saskatchewan requires your course of study must be connected to your work experience.

I don't know about that for Saskatchewan. But yes, the NOC can be changed anytime in the EE profile, provided you have the experience certificate for the same.

 

[brs.123]

460?

 

[mona247]

I believe atleast 4 draws(2 in Nov + 2 in Dec) are yet to take place for sure like all the previous years. What is the exact reason behind some others assuming that a maximum of 3 draws are the most likely thing to happen this year even when it is very clear about the remaining ITAs(approx. 13k) to be issued this year to meet the target of 2019. If it is due to the fact that there will be only 1 week time gap between the 2 draws to happen in december, we have to look at the stats and understand that even in 2018, the 2 draws in the month of december took place in a 1 week gap. So why wouldnt that repeat again this year? Is there any reason. Could anyone comment?

Who is saying only 3 draws are going to happen for sure that you are asking for comments or reasons. Read all the posts properly.

The posts reads as .. "be prepared for 6 draws or 5 draws or 4 draws or 3 draws".

The last 2 options have a 50-50 % probability, no one is sure of what is going to happen.

 

[mrs.Saifee]

My friend has a score of 464 .Should she be expecting an ITA in November?

 

[Nandita16]

Our score would change to 454 after 7th Nov...any idea when wld the crs score drop to this...after clearing so many attempt and finally getting through IELTS we loose 5points...it's like our hard work goes in waste.

 

[Adunnii]

Guys one question, I hired a reputable immigration consultancy office to take care of my application, but I was talking to them today and they said that I don't have an individual account to log in to because I am in their portal that is dealing with Express Entry. They say it is an authorized portal for the IRCC registered members.

Does this make sense? I am just being extra careful here.

They probably don’t want you to log in so as not to tamper with the whole process.