Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[Adunnii]

Yes, I agree with you. They still have about 19,000 ITA to issue before the end of 2019.

@mona247 I still believe that 3 Draws will not happen. You are right there was one draw in Feb but there was a draw on 30 Jan 2019 and feb draw after 20 days. Feb is month of 28 Days remember that as well.

Regardless of how IRCC has behaved I still believe 3 draws is highly unlikely. Let me give an explanation and a little bit of positive hope to the PR aspirants. Apart from a bit of manipulations IRCC does have a target which they should if not meet get close to at least and under 3 draws scenario they will be way below that target. Below is my explanation why

Understanding ITA Target

Well, let me remind you everything that is being discussed in these ROH threads have to do with assumptions either positive or negative. So, according to my assumption the increased ITAs in 2017 and 2018 is not linked to rejection rate of 18% to 20% as widely believed but it is to neutralize the PNP Effect in pool. The reason for this is 81,400 Target widely quoted in 2019 ROH threads is not for Express Entry but for FEDERAL HIGH SKILLED as per Goverment of Canada (See below for source). Federal High Skilled as defined by government of Canada on the below link is classified as FSW, FST and CEC having a target of 81,400. There is no mention of PNP as part of Federal High Skilled which on same link can be seen as a different line. There is no EXPRESS ENTRY Quota or Target as widely assumed by some of our members.

So what is Express entry? It is system through which Federal High Skilled (FSW, FST and CEC) and Some PNP programs get processed and some pnps via paper based. Logic Check: if the Quota was for EE then instead of mentioning the program they would have mentioned EE and Paper Based PNPs. There is no mention of EE in the targets at all. Once you get nomination from a province you are no longer FSW, FST or CEC Candidate in the pool you are PNP Candidate and using separate PNP Quota.

(Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html)

Conclusion

So based on this assumption through some research and logically analyzing the available information. I strongly believe and hope that nominations at the end of this year would be around 95,000 to 97,000. Because although IRCC has issued around 71K ITAs till now Federal High Skilled Quota is lagging behind target. Although IRCC has final say we don't know how important it is for them to meet target, honestly we have no clue. Unless IRCC decides the Target are a joke 3 Draws might be possible but I highly doubt that it will happen.

@ahsanshahbaz , like I said.. everyone including me is praying for 6 draws or 5 draws.

But 4 draws or 3 draws stand a realistic chance. Remember like how Jan had 3 draws and Feb had only one draw.. if you think that is justified, then the same way IRCC is capable of bunking one draw in December due to holidays and do 3 draws in Jan and again the same story repeats again.

I am not saying 100% December will have one draw, but we got to keep ourselves prepared for the worst.

Ok now you have also started one more discussion that's a totally different topic.. federal target vs pnp target versus overall target of 350000 people admitted as a PR.

Let's have a constructive discussion about that.. so you are saying pnp is not a part of federal target, great I will buy that, then can you please explain why does someone get 600 points and become a pnp applicant and come back into the federal pool and get ITA and eat into the federal annual targets???

 

[Adunnii]

It’s the Province that will handle the PR

@ahsanshahbaz , like I said.. everyone including me is praying for 6 draws or 5 draws.

But 4 draws or 3 draws stand a realistic chance. Remember like how Jan had 3 draws and Feb had only one draw.. if you think that is justified, then the same way IRCC is capable of bunking one draw in December due to holidays and do 3 draws in Jan and again the same story repeats again.

I am not saying 100% December will have one draw, but we got to keep ourselves prepared for the worst.

Ok now you have also started one more discussion that's a totally different topic.. federal target vs pnp target versus overall target of 350000 people admitted as a PR.

Let's have a constructive discussion about that.. so you are saying pnp is not a part of federal target, great I will buy that, then can you please explain why does someone get 600 points and become a pnp applicant and come back into the federal pool and get ITA and eat into the federal annual targets???

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

It’s the Province that will handle the PR

province will never give PR only IRCC will. Province only nominates whether inside EE or ourside EE. Outside EE you get a nomination certificate that is filled along with paper application to IRCC (Federal)

 

[Adunnii]

province will never give PR only IRCC will. Province only nominates whether inside EE or ourside EE. Outside EE you get a nomination certificate that is filled aling with paper application.

I mean it’s the province that will process it just like we have AVO and all, so it’s even kinda faster in a way.

 

[indpnv]

Window shoppers are those for whom plan B is Canada.

"Get a profile in if H1B gets rejected gotta have plan."

What's wrong with this? They are creating it after the H1B gets rejected.

 

[WarHammer]

Does anybody see any alarming trend this year or later next year where the CRS cutoff will not fall below 470ish? Is it possible?

Not 470 but there is a very decent chance scores will not fall below 460 .. maybe even now onwards.

 

[aamool]

@ahsanshahbaz , like I said.. everyone including me is praying for 6 draws or 5 draws.

But 4 draws or 3 draws stand a realistic chance. Remember like how Jan had 3 draws and Feb had only one draw.. if you think that is justified, then the same way IRCC is capable of bunking one draw in December due to holidays and do 3 draws in Jan and again the same story repeats again.

I am not saying 100% December will have one draw, but we got to keep ourselves prepared for the worst.

Ok now you have also started one more discussion that's a totally different topic.. federal target vs pnp target versus overall target of 350000 people admitted as a PR.

Let's have a constructive discussion about that.. so you are saying pnp is not a part of federal target, great I will buy that, then can you please explain why does someone get 600 points and become a pnp applicant and come back into the federal pool and get ITA and eat into the federal annual targets???

While I agree with most of what you are saying, ITAs and admission numbers are not the same, for a few reasons:
- There is a time lag - I think the average ITA to landing is 8 months (4-5 months for inland and around 10 months for Outland) it's likely that the most of the 2019 admissions were actually from 2018 ITAs
- ITAs often turn into multiple admissions (families). I believe these are counted against economic immigration and not as family member admissions
- Not every ITA leads to an admission - think people not submitting in time, refusing, rejections, or just changing their minds, etc, -so they need to build buffers.

While the IRCC doesn't share details about admissions (or at least I haven't seen any), I think they should be running numbers to adjust ITAs up or down to get where they need to be on admissions.

Overall I think there are enough unknowns that the IRCC actions and CRS cutoffs seem unpredictable.

This is however just my view - I'm far from being an expert. At the end of the day, we all have to do what we can and hope for the best!

 

[EnthuChap]

Warning: Sorry for a wall of text. I just felt I needed to be a lot more detailed in my response.

1. SINP/PNP Aggressively issuing nominations

So provinces have target for nominations not EOIs. They issue EOI throughout the year not all EOI get converted to nominations. Some get carry forwarded to next year. If you analyze the pool data for last two years there will always be candidates in 600-1200 score range. Let me give you a real life example. I am not a sales guy but I know sales people in my organization would be relaxed in meeting targets the entire year and when the last quarter of the year comes they go all active and aggressive in getting orders secured for next year as soon as it turns Jan 01, 2019 they get relaxed with routine orders coming throughout the year. Same with SINP or OINP. For all I care OINP can issue 9000 EOIs but their nominations for a given year is restricted to 6900 out of 61000 pnp quota. SINP will be very quiet next year with EOI trust me on that.

2. PNP Can be way more then 12K

12K number was just a range I did not total all previous draw data to get that number it was what I assumed 12-15K based on previous year excess invitations. Never said that it is hard and fast rule, it could be more or less this year. This data is with CIC. But one thing I can bet on is ITAs will exceed last years 89K record. last year they issued 14K in excess I am hopeful this year they will 16K in excess. Like all targets PNP targets and allocation for provinces will continue to increase till 2021 under current plan. No surprise here if the number is above 12K.

3. Rejections

In my opinion rejections ever since EE was introduced has been very minimum. EE is a very simple process in terms of documentation and most rejections on this forum are either due to careless attitude of applicants or stupid mistakes. Their frequency is not that high most candidates even get procedural fairness. Which is IRCC giving you last chance to satisfy them, even IRCC does not want to reject people. But this is again your and my assumption because I know IRCC does not release rejection numbers. Most professional people have serious attitude towards things and would be extra cautious with documentation so rejections will always be low.

Happy to see your optimism and positivity. See a reflection of myself in u. Well, u might as well be more on that than me ;-) Good luck mate!

 

[Dheana90]

It’s the Province that will handle the PR

I think it's IRCC that grants the PR,dear..All visas, migration and refugees' applications are processed by IRCC. Province does not have authority in issuing PR. They are only authorised to give nominations to invidual seeking support from province in order to get Canadian PR.

IRCC has numerous regional offices in every provinces aside from the Central Processing Office and it's different from provinces' offices that process nomination applications,dear..So I think you might be confused between the IRCC regional offices that process PR applications and the offices that works on PNP nominations. They are not the same office.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Happy to see your optimism and positivity. See a reflection of myself in u. Well, u might as well be more on that than me ;-) Good luck mate!

Thanks for your kind words. I am just trying my best to keep the people in this thread positive and hopeful. Not sure if I am even close to your and some other senior member’s optimism but I try my best to show the positive side of things where ever I can.

 

[EnthuChap]

Thanks for your kind words. I am just trying my best to keep the people in this thread positive and hopeful. Not sure if I am even close to your and some other senior member’s optimism but I try my best to show the positive side of things where ever I can.

Your gritty optimism is commendable mate...nothing Senior or Junior about it. Moreover, it is backed by stats as well, so that definitely makes your forecasts as practically viable.

 

[mkarimzadeh]

10,350 people left. With the few that joined between 25th and 30th

What can back to back do now for 457 and 460 ?


QUOTE="Tousif_27, post: 8268073, member: 625232"]@Dheana90 your calculations for the next draw please

[/QUOTE]
Impossible

 

[dondeed]

Hello all,
In a situation where someone is doing 2 different jobs at the same time to make ends meet , one NOC is related to the course studied in University , while the other one is not related to study.
In this situation
Can once decide to be changing NOC in EE profile at different times should once see a particular NOC favors an interest from a province at a particular time?

 

[Rickyguggu]

@Rickyguggu ,If there will be a draw this coming Tuesday or Wednesday and if the IRCC do not skip anymore FSW draw (regular 2 weeks gap), the CRS cut off will probably reach 460 by:

After 6th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -371)
451-600 =10,167(13,969-3,529)
441-450= 9,225

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 10,167 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464 score = 346
451-463= 729(675+54)people/score


So, by 20th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,541(10,167+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,435(9,225+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 6th Nov to 20th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-346(of 464 left after 6th Nov draw)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-305(of 729 of 463 left after 6th Nov draw)


After 6th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,383(13,541-3,158)
441-450= 9,435

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 10,383 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.
463 score = 533
451-462= 838(729+109)people/score


So, by 4th Dec, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,757(10,383+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,645(9,435+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 20th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 462-464
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-533(of 463 left after 20th Nov draw)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-554(of 838 of 462 left after 20th Nov draw)


After 4th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,599(13,757-3,158)
441-450= 9,645


Note: As cut off was 462, it means that the 10,599 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-462 only.

462 score = 393
451-461= 947(838+109)people/score

So, by 18th Dec, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=13,973(10,599+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,855(9,645+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 20th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-393 of 462 left after 4th Dec draw)
-109(of 462 newly added score)
-947of 461 left after 4th Dec draw)
-31(of 109 of 461 newly added score)


After 18th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 461, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =10,815(13,973-3,158)
441-450= 9,855


Note: As cut off was 461, it means that the 10,815 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-461 only.

461 score = 78
451-460= 1,056(947+109)people/score

So, by 1st Jan, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=14,189(10,815+3,374(241x14d)
441-450=10,065(9,855+210(15x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 3,374profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109(of 480 newly added score)
-109(of 479 newly added score)
-109(of 478 newly added score)
-109(of 477 newly added score)
-109(of 476 newly added score)
-109(of 475 newly added score)
-109(of 474 newly added score)
-109(of 473 newly added score)
-109(of 472 newly added score)
-109(of 471 newly added score)
-109(of 470 newly added score)
-109(of 469 newly added score)
-109(of 468 newly added score)
-109(of 467 newly added score)
-109(of 466 newly added score)
-109(of 465 newly added score)
-109(of 464 newly added score)
-109(of 463 newly added score)
-109(of 462 newly added score)
-109(of 461 newly added score)
-78(of 461 left after 18th Dec draw)
-109(of 460 newly added score)
-791(of 1,056 of 460 left after 18th Dec draw)

thanks for your effort

 

[rajapanesar]

Hello all,
In a situation where someone is doing 2 different jobs at the same time to make ends meet , one NOC is related to the course studied in University , while the other one is not related to study.
In this situation
Can once decide to be changing NOC in EE profile at different times should once see a particular NOC favors an interest from a province at a particular time?

Work experience does not depend on the education. There are too many factors determining whether an individual gets a job at his intended occupation or not. Most of the times, one has to select a different line of work because it is paying more, or is less stressing, or any other factor.
IRCC do not impose that education and work experience should match each other.