Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[WantToImmigrate]

Hi All,

New to the forum!

My AOR is July 31st 2019
BIO :28th August complete
MEP: 22nd August passed

Got an ADR on 24th October 2019.

Please provide an updated copy of the passport bio page for all applicants. Please note that the validity of your spouse's current passport curtails the validity of the visa by two months, In case your spouse still holds the same passport, please advise if you will be able to land before its expiration date.

This must be received at the office by :2019/11/03

I searched this forum but didn't find anyone who has received this letter.

Please let me know what does this mean?

I renewed the passport and submitted the updated passport bio page.
VO: london

Disclaimer: Everything written below is on AFAIK basis

I hope you didn't mean to ask what the letter meant and you have responded timely.

Furthermore, it seems that your application is about to be approved. Congratulations in advance!

 

[WantToImmigrate]

@Dheana90 . My score is 461 birthday is approaching on 25 dec after that 456 till may 7 . After that game over. Do you think I have strong chances of getting ita

Thanks in advance

Strong.. Yes..

For sure.. no

The way PNP and draw frequency is playing out this year.. Anything can happen

 

[Dheana90]

@Dheana90 . My score is 461 birthday is approaching on 25 dec after that 456 till may 7 . After that game over. Do you think I have strong chances of getting ita

Thanks in advance

Hi dear @cdddelhi,
According to my CRS cut off calculation estimation, the cut off score will reach 461 in 18th December draw if there is a draw in coming Wednesday, the 6th of October.

You can see the calculation in post #444 on the previous page probably

 

[Dheana90]

Hero member, good work you doing. I think you should do an estimate for 13th November draw. I'm not optimistic about a draw this Wednesday, so I want to know possible estimates for the 13th

Hey dear @Dr Seun ,
I have done the caculation for the 13th Nov Draw onwards before. You can find the full calculation detail on the page 11 post #163

 

[blueshark]

Hi dear @cdddelhi,
According to my CRS cut off calculation estimation, the cut off score will reach 461 in 18th December draw if there is a draw in coming Wednesday, the 6th of October.

You can see the calculation in post #444 on the previous page probably

So this will be the last draw of 2019 right ? So again there will be a 3 or maybe 4 week gap between the draws. As 25 th December and 1st January falls on a Wednesday.

 

[EnthuChap]

Guys I received SINP nomination today. I am at 461. Experts please suggest should I accept or wait till December for EE Draw. Pros/Cons?

PS: 461 is excluding spouse. Not sure which way is better
- Go there on EE and sponsor my spouse OR Accept SINP and add spouse in application

Include spouse and accept SINP.

 

[Dheana90]

So this will be the last draw of 2019 right ? So again there will be a 3 or maybe 4 week gap between the draws. As 25 th December and 1st January falls on a Wednesday.

Yes. If IRCC continue to conduct the draw on Wednesday then I think 18th Dec will be the last date to do a draw. I don't think they ever done a draw between 25th to 31st Dec. But,we never know. They might do a draw this time around. On the other hand, IRCC has done a draw on Tuesday and Friday before so let's say if they decide to draw on friday,the 20th of Dec then the first January draw will be on 3rd.

 

[zagcollins]

I agree, but don't you think it is practically difficult to have lots of people in the 480s and 470s to sustain the cutoff that high (like the october 30th cutoff)? It is difficult to achieve those scores, virtually everything has to go right for a person to get that score and there are not a lot of people like that! Will it stabilize a certain score then?

doesn't need to have a lot of people in 70s and 80s for score to remain high. PNPs eat into part of the 3900 ITAs and there is a huge number of people in the higher 450s and low 460s.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

@mona247 I still believe that 3 Draws will not happen. You are right there was one draw in Feb but there was a draw on 30 Jan 2019 and feb draw after 20 days. Feb is month of 28 Days remember that as well.

Regardless of how IRCC has behaved I still believe 3 draws is highly unlikely. Let me give an explanation and a little bit of positive hope to the PR aspirants. Apart from a bit of manipulations IRCC does have a target which they should if not meet get close to at least and under 3 draws scenario they will be way below that target. Below is my explanation why

Understanding ITA Target

Well, let me remind you everything that is being discussed in these ROH threads have to do with assumptions either positive or negative. So, according to my assumption the increased ITAs in 2017 and 2018 is not linked to rejection rate of 18% to 20% as widely believed but it is to neutralize the PNP Effect in pool. The reason for this is 81,400 Target widely quoted in 2019 ROH threads is not for Express Entry but for FEDERAL HIGH SKILLED as per Goverment of Canada (See below for source). Federal High Skilled as defined by government of Canada on the below link is classified as FSW, FST and CEC having a target of 81,400. There is no mention of PNP as part of Federal High Skilled which on same link can be seen as a different line. There is no EXPRESS ENTRY Quota or Target as widely assumed by some of our members.

So what is Express entry? It is system through which Federal High Skilled (FSW, FST and CEC) and Some PNP programs get processed and some pnps via paper based. Logic Check: if the Quota was for EE then instead of mentioning the program they would have mentioned EE and Paper Based PNPs. There is no mention of EE in the targets at all. Once you get nomination from a province you are no longer FSW, FST or CEC Candidate in the pool you are PNP Candidate and using separate PNP Quota.

(Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html)

Conclusion

So based on this assumption through some research and logically analyzing the available information. I strongly believe and hope that nominations at the end of this year would be around 95,000 to 97,000. Because although IRCC has issued around 71K ITAs till now Federal High Skilled Quota is lagging behind target. Although IRCC has final say we don't know how important it is for them to meet target, honestly we have no clue. Unless IRCC decides the Target are a joke 3 Draws might be possible but I highly doubt that it will happen.

 

[gabriel900]

@mona247 I still believe that 3 Draws will not happen. You are right there was one draw in Feb but there was a draw on 30 Jan 2019 and feb draw after 20 days. Feb is month of 28 Days remember that as well.

Regardless of how IRCC has behaved I still believe 3 draws is highly unlikely. Let me give an explanation and a little bit of positive hope to the PR aspirants. Apart from a bit of manipulations IRCC does have a target which they should if not meet get close to at least and under 3 draws scenario they will be way below that target. Below is my explanation why

Understanding ITA Target

Well, let me remind you everything that is being discussed in these ROH threads have to do with assumptions either positive or negative. So, according to my assumption the increased ITAs in 2017 and 2018 is not linked to rejection rate of 18% to 20% as widely believed but it is to neutralize the PNP Effect in pool. The reason for this is 81,400 Target widely quoted in 2019 ROH threads is not for Express Entry but for FEDERAL HIGH SKILLED as per Goverment of Canada (See below for source). Federal High Skilled as defined by government of Canada on the below link is classified as FSW, FST and CEC having a target of 81,400. There is no mention of PNP as part of Federal High Skilled which on same link can be seen as a different line. There is no EXPRESS ENTRY Quota or Target as widely assumed by some of our members.

So what is Express entry? It is system through which Federal High Skilled (FSW, FST and CEC) and Some PNP programs get processed and some pnps via paper based. Logic Check: is if the Quota was for EE then instead of mentioning the program they would have mentioned EE and Paper Based PNPs. There is no mention of EE in the targets at all. Once you get nomination from a province you are no longer FSW, FST or CEC Candidate in the pool you are PNP Candidate and using separate PNP Quota.

(Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html)

Conclusion

So based on this assumption through some research and logically analyzing the available information. I strongly believe and hope that nominations at the end of this year would be around 95,000 to 97,000. Because although IRCC has issued around 71K ITAs till now Federal High Skilled Quota is lagging behind target. Although IRCC has final say we don't know how important it is for them to meet target, honestly we have no clue. Unless IRCC decides the Target are a joke 3 Draws might be possible but I highly doubt that it will happen.

May I ask what is this rejection rate you mention? What is it about?

But in general I agree with you and I am hoping this will be translated into a draw this week.

 

[blueshark]

@mona247 I still believe that 3 Draws will not happen. You are right there was one draw in Feb but there was a draw on 30 Jan 2019 and feb draw after 20 days. Feb is month of 28 Days remember that as well.

Regardless of how IRCC has behaved I still believe 3 draws is highly unlikely. Let me give an explanation and a little bit of positive hope to the PR aspirants. Apart from a bit of manipulations IRCC does have a target which they should if not meet get close to at least and under 3 draws scenario they will be way below that target. Below is my explanation why

Understanding ITA Target

Well, let me remind you everything that is being discussed in these ROH threads have to do with assumptions either positive or negative. So, according to my assumption the increased ITAs in 2017 and 2018 is not linked to rejection rate of 18% to 20% as widely believed but it is to neutralize the PNP Effect in pool. The reason for this is 81,400 Target widely quoted in 2019 ROH threads is not for Express Entry but for FEDERAL HIGH SKILLED as per Goverment of Canada (See below for source). Federal High Skilled as defined by government of Canada on the below link is classified as FSW, FST and CEC having a target of 81,400. There is no mention of PNP as part of Federal High Skilled which on same link can be seen as a different line. There is no EXPRESS ENTRY Quota or Target as widely assumed by some of our members.

So what is Express entry? It is system through which Federal High Skilled (FSW, FST and CEC) and Some PNP programs get processed and some pnps via paper based. Logic Check: is if the Quota was for EE then instead of mentioning the program they would have mentioned EE and Paper Based PNPs. There is no mention of EE in the targets at all. Once you get nomination from a province you are no longer FSW, FST or CEC Candidate in the pool you are PNP Candidate and using separate PNP Quota.

(Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html)

Conclusion

So based on this assumption through some research and logically analyzing the available information. I strongly believe and hope that nominations at the end of this year would be around 95,000 to 97,000. Because although IRCC has issued around 71K ITAs till now Federal High Skilled Quota is lagging behind target. Although IRCC has final say we don't know how important it is for them to meet target, honestly we have no clue. Unless IRCC decides the Target are a joke 3 Draws might be possible but I highly doubt that it will happen.

Fully agree with you. Hope we get our ITA's soon. We both are on 458.

 

[EricD]

Just updated another way to calculate the cutoff with a prediction of cutoff time as well:
(assuming even "time stamp distribution" of profile on each score band / two months processing time before PNP comes into pool)
As we know, in 129th draw:
Draw Size : 3900
PNP : 1,527.83 (estimated using the inflow rate between 10/11/2019 ---10/25/2019; which is 1255/23*28 )
Score Bands excluding PNP: 8 (from 475-481, plus 481+ as another band)
Profiles per score : 296.52 [(3900-1527.83) / 8)]
[my previous assumption of "even distribution of 451-481" seems to be wrong, with some underestimation of 470+, thus is the aforementioned update]
If the next draw is on Nov-13:
Days 14.00
Inflow rate (means profile added per day) of 600+ (PNP) 83.29 [considering more PNPs drawn in Sep]
Inflow rate (>= 475) 84.72
Inflow rate per score band (464-475) 10.59
Profiles of 600+ 1,166.00
Previous Draw date 10/30/2019
Previous Cutoff date 8/29/2019
Profiles left at the cutoff score band itself 50.37
Profiles of >= 475 1,236.46
Profiles per score band (464-475) 444.78
Draw Size 3,900.00
Profiles left to clear below the previous cutoff 1,497.54
Score bands to clear 3.37
Previous cutoff 475.00
Real Current Round Cutoff 471.63
Current Round Cutoff (Round down) 471
Cutoff Date 7/2/2019

If the next draw is on Nov-06:
Days 7.00
Inflow rate of 600+ (PNP) 73.29
Inflow rate (>= 475) 84.72
Inflow rate per score band (464-475) 10.59
Profiles of 600+ 513.00
Previous Draw date 10/30/2019
Previous Cutoff date 8/29/2019
Profiles left at the cutoff score band 50.37
Profiles of >= 475 643.41
Profiles per score band (464-475) 370.65
Draw Size 3,900.00
Profiles left to clear below the previous cutoff 2,743.59
Score bands to clear 7.40
Previous cutoff 475.00
Real Current Round Cutoff 467.60
Current Round Cutoff (Round down) 467
Cutoff Date 6/12/2019

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

May I ask what is this rejection rate you mention? What is it about?

But in general I agree with you and I am hoping this will be translated into a draw this week.

Rejection rate is an assumption that people made when IRCC Issued more ITAs then the Target in 2017 and 2018. What I am trying to say in my post above is that the increase ITAs has little to do with rejection but infact it is to accommodate PNPs coming through Express entry.

 

[mona247]

@mona247 I still believe that 3 Draws will not happen. You are right there was one draw in Feb but there was a draw on 30 Jan 2019 and feb draw after 20 days. Feb is month of 28 Days remember that as well.

Regardless of how IRCC has behaved I still believe 3 draws is highly unlikely. Let me give an explanation and a little bit of positive hope to the PR aspirants. Apart from a bit of manipulations IRCC does have a target which they should if not meet get close to at least and under 3 draws scenario they will be way below that target. Below is my explanation why

Understanding ITA Target

Well, let me remind you everything that is being discussed in these ROH threads have to do with assumptions either positive or negative. So, according to my assumption the increased ITAs in 2017 and 2018 is not linked to rejection rate of 18% to 20% as widely believed but it is to neutralize the PNP Effect in pool. The reason for this is 81,400 Target widely quoted in 2019 ROH threads is not for Express Entry but for FEDERAL HIGH SKILLED as per Goverment of Canada (See below for source). Federal High Skilled as defined by government of Canada on the below link is classified as FSW, FST and CEC having a target of 81,400. There is no mention of PNP as part of Federal High Skilled which on same link can be seen as a different line. There is no EXPRESS ENTRY Quota or Target as widely assumed by some of our members.

So what is Express entry? It is system through which Federal High Skilled (FSW, FST and CEC) and Some PNP programs get processed and some pnps via paper based. Logic Check: if the Quota was for EE then instead of mentioning the program they would have mentioned EE and Paper Based PNPs. There is no mention of EE in the targets at all. Once you get nomination from a province you are no longer FSW, FST or CEC Candidate in the pool you are PNP Candidate and using separate PNP Quota.

(Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html)

Conclusion

So based on this assumption through some research and logically analyzing the available information. I strongly believe and hope that nominations at the end of this year would be around 95,000 to 97,000. Because although IRCC has issued around 71K ITAs till now Federal High Skilled Quota is lagging behind target. Although IRCC has final say we don't know how important it is for them to meet target, honestly we have no clue. Unless IRCC decides the Target are a joke 3 Draws might be possible but I highly doubt that it will happen.

@ahsanshahbaz , like I said.. everyone including me is praying for 6 draws or 5 draws.

But 4 draws or 3 draws stand a realistic chance. Remember like how Jan had 3 draws and Feb had only one draw.. if you think that is justified, then the same way IRCC is capable of bunking one draw in December due to holidays and do 3 draws in Jan and again the same story repeats again.

I am not saying 100% December will have one draw, but we got to keep ourselves prepared for the worst.

Ok now you have also started one more discussion that's a totally different topic.. federal target vs pnp target versus overall target of 350000 people admitted as a PR.

Let's have a constructive discussion about that.. so you are saying pnp is not a part of federal target, great I will buy that, then can you please explain why does someone get 600 points and become a pnp applicant and come back into the federal pool and get ITA and eat into the federal annual targets???

 

[Ilyushin76]

This thread isnt even worth visiting anymore.

Have a nice day!