Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[ryeCatcher]

I already posted my prediction last week

466 -1/+1 with 3350 ITA

That is reasonable assuming non PNP draw tomorrow.
But I guess my question was do you predict it not coming down to around 460 post that next draw?

 

[sarak1812]

That is reasonable assuming non PNP draw tomorrow.
But I guess my question was do you predict it not coming down to around 460 post that next draw?

Predict CRS for next draw

June 12 - ITA 3350 - 466 +/-1
June 26 - ITA 3350 - 462 +/-1

July - September
with all the PNP processed and 1000 OINP recently, the 600+ group should be quite active between summer month; therefore, the CRS will maintain at higher level. Also consider other minor factors such as USA immigration policy, inland applicants gain more experience after grad in summer (international student raise crazy in last 5 years), more Hong Kong applicants try to immigrate to Canada recently due to a negative China/HK relationship (don't forget HK was one of the largest asian group in Vancouver/Toronto between 1990s - 2000s) etc. Canada is also getting more publicity around the world by Toronto Raptors (just Joking).

Predict to Dance between 456 - 463

October - onward

Unpredictable now ~ but mostly likely stay around 455-460 with possibly 451 - 453 (tie break rule apply or once in a life chance)

Election month and predict CIC will be more "conservative" during this period because they are not sure what is the new immigration policy or budget for their department. Remember Trudeau's refugee policy and it def affects the CIC attitude. (welcoming more immigrants)

Immigration is always happening but attitude will affect the approach (Trump vs Obama




He has posted this sometime back

 

[Nsidhu]

And if that the case then I think the round of invitation date will be:
June 12th and 26th
July 10th and 24th
August 7th and 21st
September 4 or 11 and 25th
October 9th and 23rd
November 6th and 20th
December 4th and 18th or 11th and 24th or 26th

am waiting for you data analysis

 

[ajangbar001]

I sort of have a feeling that the cut off might be around 465-470. Given so many people coming in with higher CRS scores, this might be the season for high scorers. So we just have to wait out the storm and keep our hopes up.

Also, we might not even know about the people who are not joined in on this forum or who don't have a knowledge of this forum.

 

[Kiran9999]

Hi guys,

Can someone tell me is it mandatory to register in job bank after creating ee profile to enter the pool? Or can we register after getting ita?

 

[Punitsingh]

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
401-450 35,654
441-450 5,360
431-440 9,621
421-430 6,486
411-420 6,751
401-410 7,436
351-400 40,196
391-400 7,137
381-390 8,550
371-380 8,280
361-370 8,341
351-360 7,888
301-350 23,109
0-300 3,568
Total 104,512

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
401-450 36,242
441-450 5,872
431-440 9,665
421-430 6,544
411-420 6,760
401-410 7,401
351-400 40,570
391-400 7,203
381-390 8,612
371-380 8,360
361-370 8,472
351-360 7,923
301-350 23,250
0-300 3,596
Total 109,011

Increase of 412 in the range of 601-1200
Increase of 2956 in the range of 451-600

This increase happened in 14 days from 10th may to 24th may and the draw happened on 29th, which cleared out all the people above 470. After the draw, there are still 2003 people left in the 451-600 range add to that the increase assuming 2956. the people in the range 451-600 4959 and the increase in 601-1200 range will be around 400. With all these people still in the pool i think the cut off is going to be around 467.

Mistakes are as below:
Mistake#1: You forgot to calculate the addition of 451+ candidates from 24th May to 29th May, that would be 1200 451+ candidates

Now if we add 1200 to your calculation then 451+ candidates on 12th June = 4959+400+1200= 6559
Now let us calculate 470+ candidates in these 6559 candidates

470+ candidates on after may1 draw= 0
470+ candidates just before 29th May draw= 3350 approx
470+ added per day= 3350/28= 120
470+ after 29th May draw= almost 0
470+ added from 29th May to 12 th June = 120*14= 1680

Mistake#2: in 12th June draw, out of 3350 selected candidates, candidates below 470= 3350-1680=1670
Now you decreased cut off by 3 points means that there are 1670/3= 557 candidates lying on each single score below 470, which can not be true
However as per my calculations this figure should be 252 instead of 557, that too when I consider that density of 451-460 is same as that of 461-470

 

[brick8899]

Mistakes are as below:
Mistake#1: You forgot to calculate the addition of 451+ candidates from 24th May to 29th May, that would be 1200 451+ candidates

Now if we add 1200 to your calculation then 451+ candidates on 12th June = 4959+400+1200= 6559
Now let us calculate 470+ candidates in these 6559 candidates

470+ candidates on after may1 draw= 0
470+ candidates just before 29th May draw= 3350 approx
470+ added per day= 3350/28= 120
470+ after 29th May draw= almost 0
470+ added from 29th May to 12 th June = 120*14= 1680

Mistake#2: in 12th June draw, out of 3350 selected candidates, candidates below 470= 3350-1680=1670
Now you decreased cut off by 3 points means that there are 1670/3= 557 candidates lying on each single score below 470, which can not be true
However as per my calculations this figure should be 252 instead of 557, that too when I consider that density of 451-460 is same as that of 461-470

I agree with you

 

[Punitsingh]

PREDICTION FOR TOMORROW:

ITA’s : 3,350
CRS: 465-467

ITA’s: 3,500
CRS: 464-466

ITA’s: 3,750
CRS: 463-465

ITA’s: 3,900
CRS: 462-464

Should be 463+-2 for 3350 ita

 

[johanex]

Mistakes are as below:
Mistake#1: You forgot to calculate the addition of 451+ candidates from 24th May to 29th May, that would be 1200 451+ candidates

Now if we add 1200 to your calculation then 451+ candidates on 12th June = 4959+400+1200= 6559
Now let us calculate 470+ candidates in these 6559 candidates

470+ candidates on after may1 draw= 0
470+ candidates just before 29th May draw= 3350 approx
470+ added per day= 3350/28= 120
470+ after 29th May draw= almost 0
470+ added from 29th May to 12 th June = 120*14= 1680

Mistake#2: in 12th June draw, out of 3350 selected candidates, candidates below 470= 3350-1680=1670
Now you decreased cut off by 3 points means that there are 1670/3= 557 candidates lying on each single score below 470, which can not be true
However as per my calculations this figure should be 252 instead of 557, that too when I consider that density of 451-460 is same as that of 461-470

The most reasonable and logical prediction so far.

 

[prabhat112]

Hi guys,

Can someone tell me is it mandatory to register in job bank after creating ee profile to enter the pool? Or can we register after getting ita?

Even I am a bit perplexed on this. Is it mandatory to register ASAP or what significance is the job bank rather than searhcing for jobs in Canada on the internet?

 

[ramank22787]

3,500

Friends,
with the last score of 470 a little petrified, so thinking shall i apply as single applicant where i have 461 CRS points and later sponsor her or with 453 with spouse, please note that in july 2019 i will lose 5 points?

 

[ramank22787]

Even I am a bit perplexed on this. Is it mandatory to register ASAP or what significance is the job bank rather than searhcing for jobs in Canada on the internet?

No now job bank registration is not required unlike earlier.

 

[alibutt2013]

Mistakes are as below:
Mistake#1: You forgot to calculate the addition of 451+ candidates from 24th May to 29th May, that would be 1200 451+ candidates

Now if we add 1200 to your calculation then 451+ candidates on 12th June = 4959+400+1200= 6559
Now let us calculate 470+ candidates in these 6559 candidates

470+ candidates on after may1 draw= 0
470+ candidates just before 29th May draw= 3350 approx
470+ added per day= 3350/28= 120
470+ after 29th May draw= almost 0
470+ added from 29th May to 12 th June = 120*14= 1680

Mistake#2: in 12th June draw, out of 3350 selected candidates, candidates below 470= 3350-1680=1670
Now you decreased cut off by 3 points means that there are 1670/3= 557 candidates lying on each single score below 470, which can not be true
However as per my calculations this figure should be 252 instead of 557, that too when I consider that density of 451-460 is same as that of 461-470

I totally agree with your calculation but CIC has been so unpredictable this year that it has left everybody skeptical.

 

[ExpressMan]

I don't want to come up with any logic or explanation...

Nothing has changed since the last draw and I see no reason scores would be below 465-468.

Yeah, to satisfy our souls, we can come up with numbers below 460 or put some calculations together coupled with logic but CIC has nothing to do with our predictions neither our prayers will be heard by CIC.

Hoping there would be a draw today...

 

[ExpressMan]

People are now crazy about the scores.

Until last year, many of the applicants were aiming for the scores of 450-455 which was more than enough to get an ITA...

But since the last few months, with increased cut-off's, people are now aiming scores above 455.

We can easily assume the applicants over the score of 460 will be increased by at least 10% because of competetion.