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Ray of Hope - 115th Draw

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
729
409
Toronto
My feeling was purely a product of my cynical mind. Same with yours right? I mean you dont have a reason for thinking that, right?
If they dont have a draw this week, it will fuck up the scores for another 2 months at the least. I think we still havent quite escaped the effects of the 457 3 week gap draw yet.
If they don't have a draw this Wednesday, we are anyway screwed.

On the contrary, if they do so, 451+ application inflow has to jump from 222 per day to 245 per day for the CRS cut-off to jump to 452. This is unlikely, but possible.

Let's see!
 

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
729
409
Toronto
I strongly believe that the scores will drop. The surge in cutoff is temporary and it always has been that way. During initial part of the year, scores remain high and then it hovers at 440.
Incomplete analysis! Cut offs were higher in the initial part of earlier years because of lower intake per draw in comparison to later part of the year.

This year, they seem to be in no mood to increase the intake. They don't need to anyways.
 

veritas1994

Hero Member
Mar 10, 2019
230
123
449 is a great score. You will make it within the next 2 draws :)
I hope you are right, theres been a ton of surprising things this year though so I am not as certain. I am hoping for the cuttoff to drop to 448 in the next 3 draws though, hopefully I am right.
 

veritas1994

Hero Member
Mar 10, 2019
230
123
The remaining 451s are being approximated at 180 profiles. So yes 451 is also no longer such a safe score...let's see what happens on 17th
If there are 180 profiles at 451 points, those are profiles added since Jan 9th. So 180 profiles added over 4 months....thats not a lot. Why is 451 not a safe score based on this observation?
 

veritas1994

Hero Member
Mar 10, 2019
230
123
Incomplete analysis! Cut offs were higher in the initial part of earlier years because of lower intake per draw in comparison to later part of the year.

This year, they seem to be in no mood to increase the intake. They don't need to anyways.
I feel like the last draw broke you :) Stay hopeful. The cut-off barring anything too crazy should continue to drop for a bit before it stabilizes. Where it stabilizes is anyones guess though
 

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
729
409
Toronto
I feel like the last draw broke you :) Stay hopeful. The cut-off barring anything too crazy should continue to drop for a bit before it stabilizes. Where it stabilizes is anyones guess though
This would again depend on inflow of applications. If we extrapolate the last known pace of applications and hope speed doesn't increase further, it would stabilize at 447-448 or may touch at most 446.

If speed decreases a little further, it could stabilize at 444-445 too.

But I think current government may wish to not leave much for the new government (in Q4) and may do couple of one-week draws in the next 6 months.

Besides, there is Ontario who will invite some of us.
 

veritas1994

Hero Member
Mar 10, 2019
230
123
This would again depend on inflow of applications. If we extrapolate the last known pace of applications and hope speed doesn't increase further, it would stabilize at 447-448 or may touch at most 446.

If speed decreases a little further, it could stabilize at 444-445 too.

But I think current government may wish to not leave much for the new government (in Q4) and may do couple of one-week draws in the next 6 months.

Besides, there is Ontario who will invite some of us.
Agree, 446-447 is what I was thinking too. The inflow of applications is unlikely to decrease though, interest is only increasing over time as Australia makes it harder to get PR.

The impact of elections however is an unknown variable though that could work in our favor....possibly. But yeah early 440s is looking tough right now without one week draws. I am hoping I squeeze by in the next 2 months but that depends on the inflow as you said.
 

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
729
409
Toronto
Agree, 446-447 is what I was thinking too. The inflow of applications is unlikely to decrease though, interest is only increasing over time as Australia makes it harder to get PR.

The impact of elections however is an unknown variable though that could work in our favor....possibly. But yeah early 440s is looking tough right now without one week draws. I am hoping I squeeze by in the next 2 months but that depends on the inflow as you said.
The inflow can certainly decrease. Lot of counter-intutive things happen in life, more so in this case, it is possible that those who were interested already applied thereby not leaving many future applications.

It's just like sometimes people purchase cheaper flights tickets near the flight date in comparison to two weeks prior
 

SithLord

VIP Member
Aug 18, 2017
6,873
5,135
I hope you are right, theres been a ton of surprising things this year though so I am not as certain. I am hoping for the cuttoff to drop to 448 in the next 3 draws though, hopefully I am right.
I can definitely see it drop to 445/446 in the coming months. Anything less than that is tough to see
 

sujogeorge2015

Star Member
Sep 15, 2018
62
5
(Updated till 2:10 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
  • 460+ (Total 2) - kan7sh: 472 | Wizzz: 472
  • 455-460 (Total 1) - Rangrez: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 18) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | | SeniorStakes: 451 | Sanghapreet: 451 | Yiss: 450 | T80: 451 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | Ruth31:451 | siataheri:450 | biquanbi96: 451 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | Karran Oberoi: 451 | pujo: 451 | hunt4dj: 452 | AlejandroMP: 451
  • 445-449 (Total 29) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | skg1988: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:449 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | veritas1994: 449 | frightenedpanda: 445 | patel_d07: 448 | Noopur_23: 447 | dawak: 445 | dappy9: 449 | itsram: 448 | Ravi_15: 447 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Manru:449 | msgill88:445 | SASH8288: 446 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | v_nitesh_k: 449 | Sreedev83: 446
  • 441-444 (Total 21) - NikSharma01:444 | ghvijay: 443 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441 | Agarwalparesh26: 442 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | Kiamin: 442 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | Queenslander88: 442 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | intels: 441 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443
  • 435-440 (Total 12) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | krishnapahlajani93:438 | Sara1981:438 | kadeed:436 | rdj08: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Nidsy: 438 | Sam0301: 437 | bluehorse:440
  • Below 435 (Total 2) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Two months back my crs score increased from 399-> 409 . Recently I again appeared for IELTS and by Gods grace I got the magic score 8777. My Current CRS score is 466. Please add me in this list. I have been trying this process for quite sometime. I am hoping for an invite in the coming draw.
 

pessacanada

Champion Member
May 5, 2017
1,190
3,099
Category........
FSW
Incomplete analysis! Cut offs were higher in the initial part of earlier years because of lower intake per draw in comparison to later part of the year.

This year, they seem to be in no mood to increase the intake. They don't need to anyways.
It's too early to know their mood about increasing of ita number. Second half of the year should be interesting.
Anyway, hope for the best!
 
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prsingh

Hero Member
Feb 22, 2019
447
120
Connecticut, US
Kind of a weird question:
If I make a EE profile today with my spouse as primary and then after a month can I update the same profile and make myself as a primary?
 

pessacanada

Champion Member
May 5, 2017
1,190
3,099
Category........
FSW
Kind of a weird question:
If I make a EE profile today with my spouse as primary and then after a month can I update the same profile and make myself as a primary?
Unfortunately you can't. You should open new one under your name.
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
Two months back my crs score increased from 399-> 409 . Recently I again appeared for IELTS and by Gods grace I got the magic score 8777. My Current CRS score is 466. Please add me in this list. I have been trying this process for quite sometime. I am hoping for an invite in the coming draw.
Many Congratulations. You'll surely get your ITA on Wednesday my friend :)

I'll definitely add you before I share the updated list in sometime.
 
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13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
(Updated till 10:00 AM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
  • 460+ (Total 3) - kan7sh: 472 | Wizzz: 472 | aurelero:473
  • 455-460 (Total 1) - Rangrez: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 18) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | | SeniorStakes: 451 | Sanghapreet: 451 | Yiss: 450 | T80: 451 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | Ruth31:451 | siataheri:450 | biquanbi96: 451 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | Karran Oberoi: 451 | pujo: 451 | hunt4dj: 452 | AlejandroMP: 451
  • 445-449 (Total 30) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | skg1988: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:449 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | veritas1994: 449 | frightenedpanda: 445 | patel_d07: 448 | Noopur_23: 447 | dawak: 445 | dappy9: 449 | itsram: 448 | Ravi_15: 447 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Manru:449 | msgill88:445 | SASH8288: 446 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | v_nitesh_k: 449 | Sreedev83: 446 | Tivativalu: 448
  • 441-444 (Total 21) - NikSharma01:444 | ghvijay: 443 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441 | Agarwalparesh26: 442 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | Kiamin: 442 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | Queenslander88: 442 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | intels: 441 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443
  • 435-440 (Total 12) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | krishnapahlajani93:438 | Sara1981:438 | kadeed:436 | rdj08: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Nidsy: 438 | Sam0301: 437 | bluehorse:440
  • Below 435 (Total 3) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.