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Ray of Hope 111th draw

potential.candidate2018 said:
Thank you, Abhishek!

How much longer do you reckon I may have to wait for the score to be at 441? I already attempted 5 IELTS and finally managed to be at 441. Unfortunately I lost 5 points due to my birthday.
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If they issue 3900 ITAs today, you have a good chance to get ITA.

If they issue 3350 ITAs today and continue with the same every 2 weeks, then it could be tricky as the average intake in 2 weeks for CRS 441 and above is more than 3350 on average. So, the cut off could move into mid 440s. In that scenario, a 1 week gap would be required to bring it down.
 
Abhishek.s1990 said:
@abhishek_89 do I stand a chance at 438 .If yes by when .If no ,do I have a good chance for a pnp
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If they issue 3900 ITAs today, there is a slight chance for a CRS 438 cut off.

If they continue with 3350 ITAs, the cut off will move up and could stay there if they continue with 3350 ITAs and 2 week gap draws. The only way for the cut off to reach 438 with 3350 ITAs is through a 1 week gap draw.

As the latest cut off was CRS 438, OINP would be targeting around that score for HCP general category. So, chances of receiving an OINP NOI is pretty high with CRS 438 considering the current cut off.
 
Average intake between 3rd January to 25th January (22 days) for scores 441 and above has been 262 per day. (No. of profiles above 441 on Jan 3 + Daily intake - 7800 = remaining profiles above 441). For profiles between 431-440, its an extra 155.
In this case for scores to remain below 441, CIC should send at least 3668 ITAs every two weeks!

Now CIC has been sending 20% more ITAs than their target for the past two years. This make 2019's expected ITAs to be 97680 (81400 * 1.2).
Out of these 97680 ITAs, 11150 are gone, which leaves us with 86530 ITAs.

Now, including today, there are 45 Wednesdays left (excluding Christmas week Wednesday), and if CIC keeps doing biweekly draws, there are 23 draws left.

86530/23 = 3762 ITAs per draw

3762 ITAs every draw till the end of the year.
(Maybe I am thinking too much but this is what I have been able to come up with lol)
 
I think there is no point in expecting a draw today. :(
 
aswappan said:
I think there is no point in expecting a draw today. :(
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Still 11:00 am here in Toronto. The results might be posted anytime soon. :)
 
akakiyani said:
Average intake between 3rd January to 25th January (22 days) for scores 441 and above has been 262 per day. (No. of profiles above 441 on Jan 3 + Daily intake - 7800 = remaining profiles above 441). For profiles between 431-440, its an extra 155.
In this case for scores to remain below 441, CIC should send at least 3668 ITAs every two weeks!

Now CIC has been sending 20% more ITAs than their target for the past two years. This make 2019's expected ITAs to be 97680 (81400 * 1.2).
Out of these 97680 ITAs, 11150 are gone, which leaves us with 86530 ITAs.

Now, including today, there are 45 Wednesdays left (excluding Christmas week Wednesday), and if CIC keeps doing biweekly draws, there are 23 draws left.

86530/23 = 3762 ITAs per draw

3762 ITAs every draw till the end of the year.
(Maybe I am thinking too much but this is what I have been able to come up with lol)
Click to expand...

If they maybe do 3 or 4 - 1 week gap draws this year, then they can continue with 3350 ITAs and still reach 95K to 98K ITAs this year.

If they are not planning to do 1 week gap draws, issuing 3350 ITAs won't help them reach the ITA targets (considering target is 95K-98K). In that case they have to issue higher number of ITAs.
 
potential.candidate2018 said:
Thank you, Abhishek!

How much longer do you reckon I may have to wait for the score to be at 441? I already attempted 5 IELTS and finally managed to be at 441. Unfortunately I lost 5 points due to my birthday.
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We are in the same boat, i would have been at 444 but lost 5 points due to age and i attempted IELTS 5 times too, now am at 439
 
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