Ray of Hope 111th draw

[nns14]

I personally think it is unlikely to get 438 in this draw again but predictions from multiple people about 438 is giving me hope.

My logic is cut off decreases whenever the 2 weeks gap is maintained. Considering back to back draw happened earlier and the cut off was 438, it is very likely it will remain the same because the number of 438 and above is high.

For example, when draw was 443 on January 23rd, many predicted 440/441 for the next draw (if two weeks gap), this shows many believed cut off would decrease, so in this week I don't think it will go below 438 because the number of 438 still remaining is high and the new people with >438 is also high

 

[skg1988]

Just see the first post of every ROH thread.. it will have the number of ppl in the pool in each score range one week before the draw date..
I have been closing following everydraw since last June and roughly around 230-240 ppl enter the pool everyday with scores 440+.. sometimes it is upto 280 to 300, when there is IELTS result , degree completion or additional work experience..

Much appreciable calculations as well as observations!

 

[GautamKar14]

Guys,
What time does the CRS result generally gets displayed?
Any idea?

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

Sittong at 438 for almosta year now Profile expires in May .Lost out to tie breaker by aMonth mine was May and the tie breaker in April .Hoping for a 438 today again

 

[Bhuppi]

Sittong at 438 for almosta year now Profile expires in May .Lost out to tie breaker by aMonth mine was May and the tie breaker in April .Hoping for a 438 today again

You will definitely get it before May..Hope for the best !

 

[night1234]

Sittong at 438 for almosta year now Profile expires in May .Lost out to tie breaker by aMonth mine was May and the tie breaker in April .Hoping for a 438 today again

You will get it today if draw size is >=3750
Any way with recen trend Showing decrease in no of people with 440+ entering pool daily you should get it before March. I would start working on collecting required docs if I were you.

 

[mohit2018]

I predict the following cases:
no. of invitation = 3350 ; Cut-off : 439
no. of invitation = 3750 ; Cut-off : 438
no. of invitation = 3900 ; Cut-off : 438

 

[abhishek_89]

DRAW PREDICTIONS:

Draw 111 - Feb 13 - 3350 ITAs - CRS 445
Variance is +/- 2.

OR

Draw 111 - Feb 13 - 3900 ITAs - CRS 440
Variance is +/- 2.

 

[abhishek_89]

Thanks, buddy! by the way, I don't agree with an assumption that 2700 candidates are there in the pool with crs score 440 after the last draw without any evidence. This is the reason why I wanted to know the score distribution for the past draws so that we could get an idea about how many candidates enter in the pool with the scores 440 and 441 as there were many draws with this score in the past couple of months.

Based on past (previous 6-8 months) score distribution data and draw cut offs, anywhere between 3200 to 4200 applicants enter the pool (new applicants or applicants who improved their CRS) with CRS 440 and above in 2 weeks.

 

[potential.candidate2018]

DRAW PREDICTIONS:

Draw 111 - Feb 13 - 3350 ITAs - CRS 445
Variance is +/- 2.

OR

Draw 111 - Feb 13 - 3900 ITAs - CRS 440
Variance is +/- 2.

That’s a huge difference between the last draw and what you’re predicting.

I am at CRS 441. I really hope the ITAs in today’s draw is 3900.

 

[abhishek_89]

That’s a huge difference between the last draw and what you’re predicting.

I am at CRS 441. I really hope the ITAs in today’s draw is 3900.

The last draw happened with a 7 day gap which means lesser time for new applicants to enter the pool. If the draw happens today, it will be after a 14 day gap so more applicants would enter. Hence, the higher cut offs.

 

[potential.candidate2018]

The last draw happened with a 7 day gap which means lesser time for new applicants to enter the pool. If the draw happens today, it will be after a 14 day gap so more applicants would enter. Hence, the higher cut offs.

Thank you, Abhishek!

How much longer do you reckon I may have to wait for the score to be at 441? I already attempted 5 IELTS and finally managed to be at 441. Unfortunately I lost 5 points due to my birthday.

 

[akakiyani]

Why is this thread so quiet lol

 

[Shishir Chandra Kumar]

Why is this thread so quiet lol

This is the silence before the storm.

 

[san2sh]

Waiting for the draw, basically