As an inland applicant, and based entirely on assumptions from anecdotal evidence shared by others on this forum in similar circumstances, the very earliest I'm likely to get an AOR would seem to be next week.
Doesn't stop me from compulsively checking my email and spam every 5 minutes...
My timeline thus far (not including everything from birth...!):
Received IEC work permit - August 2013
Moved to Winnipeg - October 2013
Got a job - December 2013
Got a new job with the same employer - December 2014
Applied to MPNP - December/January 2015
Got married to the long term love of my life - February 2015
Received nomination letter - March 31st 2015
Mailed completed application to CIC - May 26th 2015
Delivery receipt from UPS - May 28th 2015
And now... I wait.
(IEC Work Permit expires October 20th 2015)