>>>>>>>OCTOBER 2020 AOR<<<<<<< Join here

[DaporDapor]

The last time I checked (July), my eligibility was "not started"

Definitely it's good news. At least they are working on your application. What's your VO and COR?

 

[N95]

Definitely it's good news. At least they are working on your application. What's your VO and COR?

Ottawa. AOR 30 November, 2020

 

[Miles490]

“conducting additional verification” - Where is this note? In eligibility or criminality.

It usually refers to additional checks that may be required based on your application and your details. It can range from consultations with other agencies, foreign governments, provinces etc.

@legalfalcon Thank you for your response. It wasn’t on my notes. I got to know through an MP inquiry. An MP of the province I intend to live in made an enquiry on my behalf and IRCC got back to her with those details. Criminality still in progress. Nothing was said about security or eligibility. What are your thoughts once again? Thanks

 

[legalfalcon]

@legalfalcon Thank you for your response. It wasn’t on my notes. I got to know through an MP inquiry. An MP of the province I intend to live in made an enquiry on my behalf and IRCC got back to her with those details. Criminality still in progress. Nothing was said about security or eligibility. What are your thoughts once again? Thanks

Nothing to be concerned about just by these statements, they are not out of the norm. Instead request your GCMS notes for clarity.

 

[Vikr]

@legalfalcon Hi, received my gcms notes. Could you please help me in understanding the below notes of the officer.
Text:
**Officer Review - ROC processing** as part of IDI/
Pending MEDS and Biometrics File is part of
Integrated Delivery Initiative (IDI). Indicators reviewea ana assessed. Note: Unable to include Country of
residence in Verification QA Doc details. The application was found to require local knowledge and/or
Biometrics and MED assessment, so file is e-transferred to mission for processing. Marital Status: married, 1
child. Relevant marriage and birth certificates provided. Divorce papers provided. Integrated search : NAI
Eligibility -Previously PASSED Criminality -PCCs reviewed; NRT. Pending BIOM
MEDICALS:
Valid for PA and spouse Accompanying child MEDS are M5 - application referred to PRU Manager for review
under the public policy. Appears are DEP is eligible for the public policy exemption. RPRF - complete.

 

[AnnaJ4990]

Hello @legalfalcon I have been RFV since March 2021. My medicals expired and got extended at the beginning of November 2021 but still no PPR. I've heard that FSW outland are not a priority at this point, is this true? As I am seeing a lot of PNPs with similar timeline receiving visas.

 

[legalfalcon]

Hello @legalfalcon I have been RFV since March 2021. My medicals expired and got extended at the beginning of November 2021 but still no PPR. I've heard that FSW outland are not a priority at this point, is this true? As I am seeing a lot of PNPs with similar timeline receiving visas.

Not sure where you are hearing who is a priority because IRCC has not sent out any such priority list.

RVF is just an eligiblity note. It does not mean that your application has been approved. See your security status in your GCMS notes.

 

[N95]

Hi @legalfalcon. At what stage IRCC usually asks for Schedule A (IMM 5669)? Is it after passing eligibility?

 

[legalfalcon]

Hi @legalfalcon. At what stage IRCC usually asks for Schedule A (IMM 5669)? Is it after passing eligibility?

It is usually during eligibility, but if your application has been pending for a long time and all stages have been passed, it can be asked before finalizing the application to ensure that no additional documents such as PCC are required based on any changes to your profile or any additional checks need to be done.

 

[AnnaJ4990]

Not sure where you are hearing who is a priority because IRCC has not sent out any such priority list.

RVF is just an eligiblity note. It does not mean that your application has been approved. See your security status in your GCMS notes.

Hello there,
All stages in my GCMS notes are passed (Eligibility, Security, Criminality, info sharing, medicals are extended) & in the notes in last pages its says ready for visa. I guess people are assuming this since PNP applicants with same timeline are receiving PPR and FSWs are not.

 

[sufonama]

Urgent Urgetn

Can someone share the link with info on how to add spouse post-aor?
I need to know

Who should fill the additional family info form (IMM5406) - PA, spouse or both seperately?
who should fill schedule A, only spouse or me as well?
Who should fill the generic application form, is it me adding mine as spouse details or only spouse?
Same for the form 008 additional dependents declaration form?

please help

 

[fc123]

@N95 it means IRCC has extended your medicals, you can expect a PPR soon based on the current trends.

I hope that this is the case for you but I am in a similar position, AOR 1 Nov 2020 FSW-O, and medical was updated to passed on 19 Nov 2021, about 6 weeks after it expired, and nothing since. I have seen others with similar updates. It is definitely good news that your file is being reviewed but unfortunately doesn't seem to mean that PPR is coming imminently. The trend of PPR after medical extension doesn't seem to be happening anymore. It seems that they are extending medicals and then we are going back in the queue. Who knows though, anything can happen

 

[vada pav]

Hi everyone.
I've got a message in a WatsApp group about this message on this forum, and evoked some thoughts of mine concerning the theme.

So, the table #1

Month​	number of ITAs for "no program specified" (in applications)	the number of COPRs issued for FSW applicants (in people)	FSW backlog	number of ITAs for CEC (in applications)	the number of COPRs issued for CEC applicants (in people)	CEC backlog
Jan, 2020	6,800	?		0
Feb, 2020	8000,	?		0
Mar, 2020	3,900	?		3,232
April, 2020	0	?		9,287
May, 2020	0	?		6,886
Jun, 2020	0	?		7,067
Jul, 2020	3,900	?		3,343
Aug, 2020	3,900	?		3,300
Sep, 2020	12600,	?		0
Oct, 2020	4,500	?		0
Nov, 2020	14,500	?		0
Dec, 2020	10,000	?		0
Jan, 2021	0	1271		9,376	4,456
Feb, 2021	0	761		27,332	5,594
Mar, 2021	0	381		5,000	8,383
Apr, 2021	0	420		17000,	6,860
May, 2021	0	578		11,945	5,792
Jun, 2021	0	996		12,000	16,727
Jul, 2021	0	619		9,000	16,039
Aug, 2021	0	715		6,000	16,363
Sep, 2021	0	468		2,000	14,364
Oct, 2021	0	586	51,147	0	14,282	48,225
Nov, 2021	0	?	?	0	?	?
Dec, 2021	0	?	?	?	?	?
In total:	68,100	6,795+(Nov+Dec)	<51,147	132,768+(Dec)	108,860+(Nov+Dec)	<48,225

Generally, we all should take into account that the number of ITAs doesn't give us the number of people, only the number of applications.
So, let me assume, that there are 1.5 ppl per application. In the meantime, let's assume that ALL of "no program specified" ITA receivers were FSW. So, the approximate number of people invited via 2020-2021 draws may be:
Table #2

In total:	68,100	6,795+(Nov+Dec)	<51,147	132,768+(Dec)	108,860+(Nov+Dec)	<48,225
In total (in people):	102,150			199,152

I personally think that the assumption of 1.5 ppl per application is lower that the real numbers. But let me use this for further explanation of my point of view. Neverless, the only things that matter are the size of the FSW and CEC backlog in Oct, 2021, and the unknown number of COPRs that were issued in Nov-Dec.

So, here are my thoughts:

Let's talk about the aforementioned link to the assumption that "Ottawa has gotten through most of the ‘already approved’ applications."
1) As we all know, IRCC stopped issueing COPRs to outland applicants, but highly likely its officers were continuing the verification processess until the very last stage. My assumption is that about 90% of all outland applications older that 12 months had already been approved.
2) So, for FSW I see the situation that way: about 90% of all applications in the FSW backlog have the "already approved" status. The only deccelerating factor are fresh Re-Medical Police Clearance reports.
3) Taking into account that going through the last finalizing stage is much faster than through the whole assessment process, I think that smaller officer teams could complete this task pretty fast without shifting other officers from the CEC finalizing team. This could explain the impressive increment of COPRs issued to CEC applicants throughout the second half of 2021.
So, I think that the FSW finalizing team is small and they focus on approved applications.
The CEC finalizing team tries to clear the CEC backlog and..... And only God know what IRCC will do when it's happen.
4) As I wrote here, my prediction is that after finishing the CEC backlog, IRCC will divide its forces to shift both the FSW and PNP teams.

Concerning FSW:
5) According to this data in Table #2, I think that about a third/half of all FSW applicants were the Inland ones, the vast majority of whom received COPRs in 2020.
6) The increment of COPRs we saw in November can be explained by the order to finalize the "already approved" applications. In the meantime, we have the same chance that it was just the re-assignment of IRCC officers from CEC finalizing team to the FSW one. We'll find it out only if we get the stats for November.
7) I've made several predictions of what will happen in 2022, and I continue thinking that the FSW backlog will be cleared between March and May 2022. Full calculations are given here.

Concerning CEC:
8) My assumption given here remains the same: there are 2 options when the CEC backlog will have been cleared:
- by Feb, 2022 (if the number of COPRs issued to CEC applicants remains the same for November and December)
- by May, 2022 (if some officers were shifted from CEC to FSW)
9) At the present moment, CEC iz ded. It's easy to see the declining trend throughout the second half of 2021. So, I am not sure when IRCC will resume CEC draws. I have 2 hypotheses of the possible future:
- 1st hypothesis - I assume that IRCC is interested in currently employed foreigners who are capable to apply for the TR to PR program. So, when the CEC backlog is cleared, IRCC may re-assign forces to clear the FSW and PNP backlogs. And when half of total EE backlog is cleared, IRCC will resume CEC draws, as it promised. And I think the earliest point in time for that will be ~summer 2022.
- 2nd hypothesis - Since CEC iz ded, IRCC will probably send ITAs to CEC candidates via "no program specified" draws. And the number of such ITAs will be relatively small.
I don't think that the number of ITAs for CEC applicants will be high in 2022 because of the issue I explained here. But that is just my prediction. IRCC, in its turn, can act illogically.
10) For now, the best tactic for IRCC is to maintain the 15k COPRs monthly rate.

A few side thoughts:
- I think that one day the "already approved" applications ends, so the COPR montly stats will fall since IRCC officers will have to verify applications with a lesser number of assessment stages passed. In the meantime, the backlog will be considerably smaller to compensate the fall by shifting workforce from one team to another.
- For having a much clearer picture, we need the Nov-Dec stats.
- Sean Fraser's mandate letter could clarify what to expect in 2022.
- I hope Omicron wouldn't affect the whole trend. Of course, for now, it causes some transportation and landing quarantine problems. But the chance is high that in a few months, the flight bans may be lifted if no one dies of this new strain. I'm a different kind of doctor... So, please, take into account that my point of view is quite speculative concerning the COVID situation. The most dramatic moment for me personally is the fact that I cannot get a shot of a WHO approved vaccine in my country because ALL foreign-made vaccines are banned here.
- I know almost nothing concerning the paper based PNPs and what % of the total amount of PNP applicants they are.
- Everything written above are just my thoughts based on known data. Unfortunately, IRCC's processes and stats aren't transparent, so I cannot give you more that just my very approximate calculations and imprecise assumptions.

Thanks for taking the time out and analyzing, @VVV62

 

[VVV62]

Thanks for taking the time out and analyzing, @VVV62

I made several mistakes. Let me recalculate some points

 

[VVV62]

Hi everyone.
I've got a message in a WatsApp group about this message on this forum, and evoked some thoughts of mine concerning the theme.

So, the table #1

Month	number of ITAs for "no program specified" (in applications)	the number of COPRs issued for FSW applicants (in people)	FSW backlog	number of ITAs for CEC (in applications)	the number of COPRs issued for CEC applicants (in people)	CEC backlog
Jan, 2020	6,800			0
Feb, 2020	8000,			0
Mar, 2020	3,900			3,232
April, 2020	0			9,287
May, 2020	0			6,886
Jun, 2020	0			7,067
Jul, 2020	3,900			3,343
Aug, 2020	3,900			3,300
Sep, 2020	12600,			0
Oct, 2020	4,500			0
Nov, 2020	14,500			0
Dec, 2020	10,000			0
Jan, 2021	0	1271		9,376	4,456
Feb, 2021	0	761		27,332	5,594
Mar, 2021	0	381		5,000	8,383
Apr, 2021	0	420		17000,	6,860
May, 2021	0	578		11,945	5,792
Jun, 2021	0	996		12,000	16,727
Jul, 2021	0	619		9,000	16,039
Aug, 2021	0	715		6,000	16,363
Sep, 2021	0	468		2,000	14,364
Oct, 2021	0	586	51,147	0	14,282	48,225
Nov, 2021	0	?	?	0	?	?
Dec, 2021	0	?	?	?	?	?
In total:	68,100	6,795+(Nov+Dec)	<51,147	132,768+(Dec)	108,860+(Nov+Dec)	<48,225

Generally, we all should take into account that the number of ITAs doesn't give us the number of people, only the number of applications.
So, let me assume, that there are 1.5 ppl per application. In the meantime, let's assume that ALL of "no program specified" ITA receivers were FSW. So, the approximate number of people invited via 2020-2021 draws may be:
Table #2

In total:	68,100	6,795+(Nov+Dec)	<51,147	132,768+(Dec)	108,860+(Nov+Dec)	<48,225
In total (in people):	102,150			199,152

I personally think that the assumption of 1.5 ppl per application is lower that the real numbers. But let me use this for further explanation of my point of view. Neverless, the only things that matter are the size of the FSW and CEC backlog in Oct, 2021, and the unknown number of COPRs that were issued in Nov-Dec.

So, here are my thoughts:

Let's talk about the aforementioned link to the assumption that "Ottawa has gotten through most of the ‘already approved’ applications."
1) As we all know, IRCC stopped issueing COPRs to outland applicants, but highly likely its officers were continuing the verification processess until the very last stage. My assumption is that about 90% of all outland applications older that 12 months had already been approved - 29,835 CEC applications (~44,752 ppl) and 61,290 FSW applications (~91,935 ppl). Highly likely these people have the priority for receiving COPRs.
So, taking into account the sizes of both backlogs in Oct, 2021, about 40k ppl in the FSW backlog have the "already apploved" status . About 10k ppl are stuck in the middle of the assessment process.
For CEC there are no more "already approved" applicants. All remaining 48k ppl are in the middle of the assessment process. Nevertheless the assessment speed of 15k applicants per month is pretty impressive.
2) The only deccelerating factor is the Re-Medical Police Clearance reports waiting time.
3) Taking into account that going through the last finalizing stage is much faster than through the whole assessment process, I think that smaller officer teams could complete this task pretty fast without shifting other officers from the CEC finalizing team. This could explain the impressive increment of COPRs issued to CEC applicants throughout the second half of 2021.
So, I think that the FSW finalizing team is small and they focus on approved applications.
The CEC finalizing team tries to clear the CEC backlog and..... And only God know what IRCC will do when it's happen.
4) As I wrote here, my prediction is that after finishing the CEC backlog, IRCC will divide its forces to shift both the FSW and PNP teams.

Concerning FSW:
5) According to this data in Table #2, I think that about a third/half of all FSW applicants were the Inland ones, the vast majority of whom received COPRs in 2020.
6) The increment of COPRs we saw in November can be explained by the order to finalize the "already approved" applications. In the meantime, there is the same chance that it was just the re-assignment of IRCC officers from CEC finalizing team to the FSW one. We'll find it out only if we get the stats for November.
7) I've made several predictions of what will happen in 2022, and I continue thinking that the FSW backlog will be cleared between March and May 2022. Full calculations are given here.

Concerning CEC:
8) My assumption given here remains the same: there are 2 options when the CEC backlog will have been cleared:
- by Feb, 2022
- by May, 2022
9) At the present moment, CEC iz ded. It's easy to see the declining trend throughout the second half of 2021. So, I am not sure when IRCC will resume CEC draws. I have 2 hypotheses of the possible future:
- 1 - I assume that IRCC is interested in currently employed foreigners who are capable to apply for the TR to PR program. So, when the CEC backlog is cleared, IRCC may re-assign forces to clear the FSW and PNP backlogs. And when half of total EE backlog is cleared, IRCC will resume CEC draws, as it promised. And I think the earliest point in time for that will be ~summer 2022.
- 2 - IRCC will probably send ITAs to CEC candidates via "no program specified" draws. And the number of such ITAs will be relatively small.
I don't think that the number of ITAs for CEC applicants will be high in 2022 because of the issue I explained here. But that is just my prediction.
10) For now, the best tactic for IRCC is to maintain the 15k COPRs monthly rate.

A few side thoughts:
- I think when the FSW "already approved" applications end, the number of issued COPRs will fall since IRCC officers will have to verify applications with a lesser number of assessment stages passed. In the meantime, the backlog will be considerably smaller to compensate the fall by shifting workforce from one team to another.
- For having a much clearer picture, I need the Nov-Dec stats.
- Sean Fraser's mandate letter could clarify what to expect in 2022.
- I hope Omicron wouldn't affect the whole trend. Of course, for now, it causes some transportation and landing quarantine problems. But the chance is high that in a few months, the flight bans may be lifted if no one dies of this new strain. I'm a different kind of doctor... So, please, take into account that my point of view is quite speculative concerning the COVID situation. The most dramatic moment for me personally is the fact that I cannot get a shot of a WHO approved vaccine in my country because ALL foreign-made vaccines are banned here.
- I know almost nothing concerning the paper based PNPs and what % of the total amount of PNP applicants they are.
- Everything written above are just my thoughts based on known data. Unfortunately, IRCC's processes and stats aren't transparent, so I cannot give you more that just my very approximate calculations and imprecise assumptions.